Tencent technology news on November 20, Morgan Stanley, an American investment bank, believes that the upcoming “Apple car” is expected to become “the terminator of the electric vehicle industry” and even subvert the entire automotive industry.
Subvert the auto industry like ar
After predicting that Apple will become a “game changer” in the field of augmented reality (AR), Morgan Stanley analysts believe that Apple cars will also subvert the automotive industry, but the speed will be slower. In a report to investors, analysts described apple as the “ultimate electric vehicle bear”, leading to the derailment of other popular auto stocks.
Some media recently reported that Apple will launch a fully automatic driving electric vehicle in 2025. Adam Jonas and Katy Huberty, analysts at Morgan Stanley, believe that Apple’s initial sales are small, but there will be a significant growth soon.
When it comes to the whole car market, not just Apple, Jonas predicts that L5 class (or fully automatic driving) will take several years to become the main salable car.
Jonas said: “we anticipate that due to a series of technical, moral, legal and regulatory considerations, the automatic driving vehicle will become the mainstream popular vehicle at a very slow rate. By 2025, we expect the sales of L5 class fully automatic driving vehicle will reach 100 thousand vehicles, most of which are outside the United States.”
He added: “by 2030, we expect the sales volume of L5 vehicles to exceed 1.8 million (accounting for 2% of the total sales volume), accounting for 0.4% of global parking lots and 0.5% of global mileage. By 2040, we expect the mileage of L5 vehicles to reach 7.6% of the world and close to 47% in 2050.”
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley also believes that Apple cars are unlikely to be purchased by individuals and are more likely to be shared in some way. “We believe that cars without steering wheel or pedals will definitely be used for ‘shared service’ rather than private ownership. It should be clear that we do not think that consumers will own fully automatic cars, but will participate in the service in the form of subscription,” Jonas said
Morgan Stanley predicts that the mileage of global electric vehicles “will increase to 24 trillion km by 2030 (currently 19 trillion km)”. He also refers to the entire market, not just Apple. The agency also estimates that this figure will reach 32 trillion kilometers by 2040 and nearly 50 trillion kilometers by 2050.
Morgan Stanley estimates that car drivers and passengers “spend more than 600 billion hours on cars every year”. Jonas said, “what’s the value of traveling in an apple car for an hour? We don’t know. But 600 billion hours multiplied by anything will be a very huge number.”
In addition, Jonas and huberti had previously predicted that Apple would personally participate in the design of every detail of Apple’s car, rather than outsourcing.
2022 or announce the strategic cooperation of vehicle manufacturing
Daniel ives, chief analyst at Wade Bush securities, a US brokerage, said that Apple may announce a strategic partnership on electric vehicles in 2022 to lay the foundation for the release of Apple cars in 2025.
Ives still believes that it is only a matter of time before Apple launches an autopilot, rather than a problem. He added that Apple’s entry into the automotive market could add $30 a share to Apple’s growth story. From the timetable, by 2025, Apple has a 60% to 65% chance to launch cars independently.
“In the past seven years, we have seen many twists and turns in Apple’s ambition in the automotive field. The size of Titan project team has been greatly reduced since a few years ago. Now it seems to be the focus again and begin to discuss the launch of Apple cars in 2025,” Ives wrote
The analyst still believes that Apple will announce some type of electric vehicle strategic cooperation in 2022, because such cooperation will be the “first step” for apple to enter the automobile market. “Considering the impact of future profit margins and financial models, coupled with the strategic product risks brought by such a huge effort, we will see Apple find partners in the field of electric vehicles, but build its own factory to produce cars,” Ives wrote
The technical strength of automobile is comparable to Tesla
In addition, gene Munster, an analyst at loop ventures, a well-known venture capital company in Silicon Valley, said that Apple was “doing very well” in the artificial intelligence and automatic driving ability of Apple cars, even comparable to Tesla, which was shocking.
Munster said: “if you compare apple and Tesla in terms of scientific and technological strength, I think Apple may be closer to Tesla’s current level than you think. Artificial intelligence is the essence of automatic driving, and apple has done very well in this regard.”
The analyst also stressed the latest media reports on Apple cars and called them credible. Bloomberg recently disclosed that Apple has developed a special processor for Apple cars to support autonomous electric vehicles without steering wheel or pedal.
David Vogt, an analyst at UBS, said earlier this year that Apple had obtained a patent entitled “waveform design of lidar system with dense pulses”. The patent puts forward eight requirements for lidar, including the ability to detect objects “whose distance to the target scene may range from tens of centimeters to hundreds of meters”.
Although Apple has not announced its production partner, many analysts now agree that apple is most likely to make its debut in 2025. Recently, some reports confirmed that apple is negotiating with Kia brand of Hyundai Motor Group and Magna International. In terms of batteries, the focus of cooperation is still LG, Ningde times, BYD and Panasonic.
Munster also pointed out that a large number of reports on Apple motor show that its electric vehicle project not only exists, but is booming. After all, there is “no smoke without fire”. He also said that considering Apple’s huge total addressable market (TAM), it was not surprising that Apple took full advantage of this opportunity. “This is the biggest potential market you can find, and apple wants to be one of them,” Munster said
As early as January this year, Morgan Stanley analyst Huberty stressed this point. She pointed out that smart phones currently have a global market share of about $500 billion, and apple accounts for about one-third. On the other hand, the value of the mobile market is about $10 trillion. Therefore, apple only needs to occupy 2% of this market to copy the financial dividend brought by the iPhone. (reviewed by Tencent technology / Jinlu)