Analyst: after SpaceX launches 12000 satellites, the satellite chain network can earn $6 billion a year


Tencent technology news on September 3, ark invest, an investment management company of Cathie wood, a well-known investor, believes that after 12000 satellites are deployed on the “Starlink” Satellite Internet of SpaceX, a US space exploration technology company, it will provide services to 30 million users and generate US $6 billion in revenue every year.
Ark analyst Sam Korus modeled the future revenue of SpaceX according to its satellite deployment. The model shows that SpaceX can target two different user groups through the star chain, and their revenue in the global addressable market is roughly equal. After SpaceX suspended the high-frequency launch rhythm, the company has about 1600 satellites in orbit.
Ark believes that the star chain can provide services to up to 30 million users through 12000 satellites. The data analyzed by the company uses several key assumptions. First of all, Ark’s conclusion is based on SpaceX’s deployment of 12000 satellite chain satellites, but in fact, the company may take several years to complete the deployment. However, SpaceX is currently developing a “starship” in boccachica, Texas, which will greatly improve its satellite launch capability. SpaceX executives have hinted that the Starship can carry up to 400 satellites and put satellites into orbit faster than the Falcon 9 rocket.
Secondly, Ark’s estimate of the star chain project is based on the approval of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), which currently authorizes SpaceX to deploy 12000 satellites. The FCC first approved SpaceX’s plan in March 2019, when it allowed the deployment of 4425 satellite chains. Eight months later, in its second authorization, the FCC approved SpaceX to deploy 7518 more satellites, bringing the total number of satellites to about 12000.
In addition, SpaceX recently proposed a revised plan to ask the FCC to allow it to deploy 30000 satellites at a much lower orbital altitude than originally. These second-generation satellites are considered to constitute the backbone of the satellite chain’s goal of “connecting the world”. Compared with the first two FCC authorizations, SpaceX’s plan will change significantly, such as higher production capacity and manufacturing cost-effectiveness.
Corus uses the monthly broadband service price, the global average download speed and Internet cost, and adjusts it according to the gross domestic product (GDP), and obtains two price ranges that users are willing to pay for star chain Internet services. One of them is in the range of $75 to $100, which is the current goal of star chain, because its beta users pay $99 a month. The second range is a subscription fee of $10 to $20, and their total addressable market (TAM) estimates are roughly the same.
According to the law of demand and supply economics, the annual addressable revenue in the lower subscription fee range may be slightly higher, more than $6 billion. However, this comes with the natural increase in the number of users using the star chain, which will also be a major constraint to be overcome by Internet services.
After his income estimation, Corus established a model for each type of users, showing that the differences between them are quite obvious.
Matching the monthly subscription fee with the number of addressable users, Corus revealed that the lower price range (US $10 to US $20) will require the star chain to provide services to more than 30 million users in order to obtain US $6 billion in revenue. This is five times more than $75 to $100 users, who only need to provide services to slightly more than 5 million users to earn similar income.
SpaceX also asked the FCC in August 2020 to increase the license authorization of its 1 million user terminals to 5 million. Elon Musk, CEO of the company, revealed at the end of last month that so far, the shipment volume of star chain service user terminals has reached 100000 units. SpaceX also plans to produce “millions” of satellite antennas at a new plant in Austin, Texas. SpaceX is expanding its global coverage program to fund interstellar space exploration´╝ł Tencent Technology (reviser / Jinlu)