According to the data of Tencent technology passenger Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 246000 in July, with a month on month increase of 5.1% and a year-on-year increase of 202.9%. From January to July, the wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles was 1.339 million, a year-on-year increase of 227.4%. In July, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 222000, with a year-on-year increase of 169.4% and a month on month decrease of 3.2%. From January to July, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 1.229 million, a year-on-year increase of 210.2%. It forms the characteristics of strong differentiation from the trend of traditional fuel vehicles, realizes the substitution effect on the fuel vehicle market, and drives the transformation of the vehicle market to new energy.
In July, the sales volume of new forces such as ideal, Xiaopeng, Weilai, Hezhong and Zero run were excellent year-on-year and month on month.
Tesla sold 32968 Chinese cars in July and 33155 in June. The domestic sales data fell slightly month on month. Tesla delivered 8621 Chinese cars in July, down 69% month on month.
Passenger Association: Tesla sold 33155 cars made in China in June
The following is the original text of the passenger Federation:
1. Review of national passenger car market in July
Retail sales: in July 2021, the retail sales of passenger car market reached 1.5 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% compared with July 2020, and an increase of 1% compared with July 2019. The high base pressure in the second half of 2020 is reflected.
Retail sales in July decreased by 4.9% month on month compared with June, which is relatively normal compared with the average monthly month on month growth over the years, and it is better after excluding abnormal factors.
After the improvement of the epidemic situation, the world automobile supply and demand gap is under great pressure temporarily. The insufficient and uncertain international chip supply has led to a large loss of production reduction of some Chinese automobile enterprises. In recent months, the sales volume at the wholesale end of some auto enterprises has decreased sharply, which has led to the transmission of factors such as the imbalance of dealers in and out of joint venture auto enterprises, the mismatch between order demand and existing inventory to the retail terminal, resulting in weak retail.
Driven by the local consumption promotion policy in Guangdong, the demand of Guangzhou Shenzhen auto market recovered significantly in July. The epidemic situation in Nanjing in late July had no significant impact on the auto market in July, while the impact of Rainstorm in Zhengzhou on the auto market has not been significantly reflected.
From January to July this year, the total retail sales reached 11.445 million, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%, down 6 percentage points from the growth rate from January to June. The strong growth from January to July is mainly due to the low base effect of the cumulative retail decline of 19% in the national passenger car market from January to July 2020. Secondly, the growth contribution of new energy vehicles has been increasing, contributing 10 percentage points to the year-on-year growth from January to July.
In July, the retail sales of luxury cars was 200000, a year-on-year decrease of 18% and a month on month decrease of 21% compared with June, but an increase of 7% compared with July 2019. Luxury cars continue to maintain the characteristics of structural stability, and the demand for high-end replacement reflecting consumption upgrading is still strong, with little impact on competition.
In July, the retail sales of independent brands were 640000, with a year-on-year increase of 20%, a month on month increase of 5% and a 23% increase compared with July 2019. The wholesale market share of independent brands was 45.4%, an increase of 12 percentage points over the same period; And the domestic retail share was 42.5%, an increase of 9 percentage points year-on-year. The leading enterprises of independent brands have strong industrial chain toughness, effectively resolve the pressure of chip shortage, turn disadvantage into advantage, and obtain significant increment in new energy. Therefore, BYD, gac-e’an, Chang’an, Hongqi, Chery and other brands have increased significantly year-on-year.
In July, 670000 mainstream joint venture brands were retailed, down 19% year-on-year, 7% month on month, and 15% compared with July 2019. The retail share of Japanese brands in July was 23.0%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year. The US retail market share reached 9.1%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, showing a good performance. German brands are still in the stage of adjustment and preparation due to the huge supply gap.
Export: in July, the passenger car export (including complete vehicle and CKD) of the passenger Federation was 128000, with a year-on-year increase of 212%, and new energy vehicles accounted for 20% of the total export. Among them, the export of independent brands reached 90000, a year-on-year increase of 160%, and the export of joint venture brands reached 17000, a year-on-year increase of 120%. The incremental contribution of foreign brand Tesla to the export of 24000 vehicles is large, showing the momentum of continuous improvement of the competitiveness of China’s manufacturing system.
Production: 1.529 million passenger cars were produced in July, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% compared with July 2020, of which the production of luxury brands decreased by 2%, the production of joint venture brands decreased by 33%, and the production of independent brands increased by 30%. From January to July, 11.082 million vehicles were produced, an increase of 21.2% over 2020. The recent chip shortage has affected the production rhythm, but the output of nearly 30% of auto enterprises in July hit a new high this year, significantly higher than 18% in June, reflecting the trend of gradual improvement of chip impact. In particular, the traditional auto enterprises and new energy auto enterprises with independent brands strengthened their supply chain advantages, effectively resolved the pressure of chip shortage, and achieved a good performance of production growth in July compared with June.
Wholesale: in July, the wholesale sales volume of manufacturers was 1.507 million, a month on month decrease of 1.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%, and a decrease of 1% compared with July 19. From January to July, the total wholesale sales volume was 11.328 million, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, a decrease of 150000 compared with the same period in 2019.
Inventory: this year’s inventory reduction is obvious, and the manufacturer’s inventory has remained low in recent months. At the end of July, the manufacturer’s inventory increased by 20000 units month on month, and the channel inventory decreased by 120000 units month on month; From January to July 2021, the manufacturer’s inventory decreased by 220000 units, which is larger than that from January to July over the years, forming the feature of strong de inventory for four consecutive years.
The channel inventory from January to July 2021 decreased by 780000 units, which was significantly higher than the level of 190000 units destocked from January to July 2020. As the shortage of chips in the upstream appears in the short term, there may be further phenomena such as destocking and discount recycling at the terminal sales level. Some joint ventures lost a large number of orders and damaged morale.
New energy: in July, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 246000, with a month on month increase of 5.1% and a year-on-year increase of 202.9%. From January to July, the wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles was 1.339 million, a year-on-year increase of 227.4%. In July, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 222000, with a year-on-year increase of 169.4% and a month on month decrease of 3.2%. From January to July, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 1.229 million, a year-on-year increase of 210.2%. It forms the characteristics of strong differentiation from the trend of traditional fuel vehicles, realizes the substitution effect on the fuel vehicle market, and drives the transformation of the vehicle market to new energy.
1) Wholesale: the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers was 16.3% in July and 11.8% from January to July, significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. In July, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 28.4%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury vehicles is 19.3%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands is only 2.1%. In July, the wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 198000, a year-on-year increase of 205%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 47000, with a year-on-year increase of 196%, accounting for 19%. In July, the sales volume of high-end electric vehicles increased strongly, and the middle and low-end trend was strong. Among them, the wholesale sales volume of A00 is 60000, accounting for 30% of that of pure electric; Class a electric vehicles accounted for 29% of pure electric vehicles, rising from the bottom; The number of class B electric vehicles reached 49000, which was basically the same as that in June, and the share of pure electric vehicles was 25%. In July, BYD’s sales volume of plug-in hybrid reached 25391, with a month on month increase of 24%, promoting the growth of affordable plug-in hybrid into a new bright spot.
2) Retail: the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 14.8% in July and 10.9% from January to July, significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. In July, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 30.1%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury vehicles is 8%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands is only 2.5%. The domestic enterprises with retail sales exceeding 10000 vehicles include 45782 BYD, 32800 SAIC GM Wuling and 10604 GAC EA.
3) Export: in July, the export of new energy vehicles showed explosive growth. Tesla China exported 24347 vehicles, SAIC passenger cars exported 4407 vehicles, BYD 781 vehicles, Chery 120 vehicles, and the export of new energy vehicles of other auto enterprises is also ready to go.
4) Auto Enterprises: in July, the new energy passenger car market was diversified, the new energy performance of large groups was differentiated, and the performance of SAIC and GAC was relatively strong. Enterprises with wholesale sales of more than 10000 vehicles include 50387 BYD, 32968 Tesla China, 27347 SAIC GM Wuling, 13454 SAIC passenger vehicles and 10506 GAC EA.
5) New forces: in July, the sales of ideal, Xiaopeng, Weilai, Hezhong, Zero run and other new forces were excellent year-on-year and month on month. Among the mainstream joint venture brands, North South Volkswagen retails 10707 new energy vehicles, accounting for 57% of the mainstream joint venture. The pure electric vehicles of BBA luxury car enterprises are fully mass produced, and the product acceptance still needs to be greatly improved.
6) General hybrid: in July, the wholesale of ordinary hybrid passenger vehicles was 47000, an increase of 41% year-on-year in July last year and a slight increase of 2% month on month compared with June. Toyota has a strong response to the impact of chip shortage.
2.8 national passenger car market outlook
There are 22 working days in August, one more day than last August, which is conducive to the increment of production and marketing. The high-temperature leave of some auto enterprises is concentrated in early August, and the production department takes a centralized leave in the case of insufficient chips. In late July, the epidemic occurred in different regions in a dot matrix manner, which has a certain impact on the production and living order of some important traditional automobile industrial towns, or increase the pressure on ensuring supply in August, and may also affect the sales rhythm of automobile market in some regions in August.
Under the situation of continuous epidemic prevention and control, passenger car travel has also become the guarantee of travel safety. The demand for the second car of families such as picking up children to and from school is stronger, and the demand for replacement and additional purchase drives the continuous strong market of new and used cars.
At present, the oil price continues to rise, which brings pressure on the sales of traditional vehicles and is conducive to the growth of new energy vehicles. The new energy vehicle market will continue to accelerate in an all-round way. The independent brand A00 vehicles will continue to be sold in large quantities, the joint venture new energy products will continue to be launched, and the sales proportion of class a new energy vehicles will continue to increase, bringing about a large increase in new energy.
Since the second quarter, the demand for car purchase has been relatively strong, which has promoted the popularity of the terminal market. At present, the channel inventory is at a very low level. The delayed delivery of orders caused by epidemic situation, insufficient production capacity and other factors in the early stage will dilute the impact of the traditional off-season of the market in July.
The antitrust investigation conducted by relevant national departments on chips is conducive to improving the chip supply order, accumulating the delivery of retail orders, and increasing the wholesale increment of the inventory cycle from August to October. If the overseas epidemic and other uncertain factors improve, the production of automobile enterprises will strengthen significantly, and the increment of new products restrained in the early stage will also promote the strength of the automobile market in August.
3. Review and Prospect of car market in the first half of the year
In the first half of 2021, the wholesale sales volume of the car market was 4.668 million, with a year-on-year increase of 27.8%, basically the same as that in the first half of 2010, down 25% from the peak of 6.211 million in 2014. It is at the lowest wholesale volume of manufacturers in the first half of 2011-2019.
The retail sales of cars in the passenger car market of the passenger Federation was 4.829 million, with a year-on-year increase of 30%, and the passenger car market accounted for 49% year-on-year, a slight increase of 1 percentage point compared with 2020, which was mainly contributed by A00 hatchback. In the first half of the year, the rhythm of the car market was consistent with that of the general market. The retail growth rate of the car market was high before and low after, and the growth momentum slowed down from May to June. The performance of energy types in the car market is uneven: the overall proportion of cars has increased slightly, the proportion of new energy vehicles has increased greatly, and the proportion of traditional fuel vehicles has declined.
Uneven growth from the level structure: the two major forces driving the growth of the car market are the traditional A-class and B-class hatchback and A00 hatchback new energy market.
Under the influence of chip shortage, the car market pattern continues to be good at both ends. The luxury camp is dominated by the growth of BMW and Tesla, and both traditional brands and new forces in the economic camp contribute.
According to the characteristics of market growth sources, both new and old models have increased: in the first half of 2021, new cars have contributed more than 40% to the growth of the car market, and old cars have recovered strongly under the low base. Driven by strong models: new energy makes a great contribution in new models, and traditional star models are still the main ones in old models.
In the first half of 2021, the nev car market showed explosive growth and increased penetration. Nev car market contributed 160000 increment in the first half of the year. Even from May to June, when the total car market grew negatively, it still contributed more than 20000 net increment. The nev market has changed from policy driven to market driven. The sales proportion of restricted cities has decreased, and the share of private cars has increased year by year.
Price characteristics of car market: in recent three years, the proportion of car sales in the high price segment of more than 200000 has increased year by year. The car market of more than 200000 is still dominated by joint venture brand models, but the proportion of independent brands has increased significantly in 2021. This year, the car market has achieved the only positive growth in transaction price in recent three years. The strong price recovery of European and American models and the price recovery brought by the shortage of German resources have added to the rise in the car market price this year.
FAW Volkswagen in the car market continues to maintain its position as a leading car enterprise. The car market highlights the outstanding performance of the models. FAW Volkswagen’s Suteng product sequence has significantly improved the benefits, GAC Toyota Camry’s lean management helps the brand upward, Dongfeng Group Xuanyi’s product sequence portfolio ensures the leading position of class A, GAC Honda Fit series iterative innovation maintains vitality, and Chang’an Automobile’s precise positioning promotes the process of plus.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, the car market will decline slightly on the basis of high base. The strong momentum of new energy in the car market will continue in the second half of the year. The newly listed traditional cars will gradually increase in volume, or partially drive the increase in the proportion of ice cars. After the resumption of chip supply in the second half of the year, the objectives of manufacturers in the field of cars will be greatly improved, especially the competition of mainstream joint venture brands will be more intense.
4. Supporting the accelerated development of new energy vehicles is a major opportunity
On July 30, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee specially proposed to support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles, which is a policy encouragement direction of strategic significance. On August 5, the White House said in a statement that US President Biden would sign an executive order to set a grand goal for the US new energy vehicle industry, that is, half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 will be zero emission vehicles, including pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles or fuel cell electric vehicles.
New energy vehicles activate new kinetic energy and drive the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry chain. This is mainly because the automobile manufacturing industry is known as the “leader in industry”, with many spare parts and long industrial chain, which has an obvious driving effect on upstream and downstream enterprises. At present, China takes the lead in the world share due to industrial planning. Europe has awakened a year ago. The United States began to develop new energy vehicles this month. In the future, Japan and other countries are bound to follow up industrial changes.
China’s support for the accelerated development of new energy takes into account four important factors: first, activate new kinetic energy to drive the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry chain; Second, optimize and adjust the energy structure, reduce the dependence on imported crude oil and improve the geopolitical anti risk ability; Third, environmental protection and emission reduction to accelerate carbon peak and carbon neutralization; Fourth, promote domestic consumption and advocate “cars make life better”. Through the development of new energy vehicles, change the energy structure, present the coexistence of multiple energy sources, and promote the marketization of cost, efficiency and business model. The development of new energy vehicle industry represents the future development trend, so it is inevitable to be mentioned in such a high position.
To support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles, we must understand how to tap the potential of the domestic market. At present, automobile is the only family tool with low penetration rate in China. At present, there are 290 million cars in China, 200 cars for 1000 people, less than 170 passenger cars for 1000 people, less than 50% for 100 families, and half of the families have no cars, which has great potential.
At present, new energy vehicle enterprises have officially entered the stage of high-speed popularization of new energy through years of user training. At present, new cars are the core increment source. In addition to the strong increment at both high and low ends, class a PHEVs and ev new cars will significantly drive the accelerated growth of class a new energy market in the future.
5. Car market consumption needs to be upgraded and popularized
The obvious characteristics of the growth of the auto market in recent years are that the trend pressure of traditional cars is large, the differentiation between high and low ends is obvious, luxury cars continue to be strong, entry-level models are relatively difficult, and some enterprises with independent brands fall behind.
The gap between residents’ income has widened. In 2021, our per capita income was 18% higher than the median income, while in 2014, our per capita income was about 15% higher than the median income, and 14% in 15-16 years. At present, the proportion of high-income people is increasing, which has also raised our average level. This will bring a good continuous promotion effect to the high growth of luxury car consumption. At present, the continuous decline of residents’ expenditure is mainly clothing consumption expenditure, the continuous growth is mainly residential consumption expenditure, and the expenditure on education, culture and entertainment is also relatively high. The expenditure on education is increasing, and the expenditure on medical treatment is increasing continuously.
According to the statistics of domestic urban and rural residents in 2013, there were 18000 income and 13000 expenditure, and the per capita expenditure accounted for 72% of the income. However, by 2021, the proportion of national residents’ expenditure in income has decreased to 65%, a decrease of 7 percentage points, that is, some people have reduced their expenditure.
At present, the domestic passenger car sales and housing sales are about 20 million, basically the ratio of RV to 1:1, which is much higher than the sales ratio of 30 vehicles corresponding to a new house in other developed countries. Considering the repayment of huge loans for house purchase or the down payment for house purchase, the residents’ cash decreases rapidly, and the debt increases rapidly, which inhibits the demand for car purchase.
In the future, reducing people’s education expenditure and house purchase expenditure and increasing consumption expenditure are the trend to promote internal circular consumption. Therefore, the consumption of the car market needs to be upgraded and popularized. Promoting the accelerated development of new energy vehicles is conducive to the popularization of consumption in the car market.
6. The survival status of dealers continues to improve
On July 28, 2021, China Automobile Circulation Association released the survey report on the survival status of national automobile dealers in the first half of 2021. This is also a good data analysis of dealer status, which has a strong guiding significance for manufacturers.
This year, the overall operation effect of auto 4S dealers is relatively good, and the overall profit performance is relatively improved, especially the profit improvement of new car sales and after-sales is relatively strong. In the first half of the year, the loss of dealers decreased to 30.4%, which is a rare achievement, compared with about 40% in 2018 and 2019.
In recent years, the luxury car market has shown a high growth trend, and the proportion of luxury cars has increased rapidly, especially the traditional luxury cars and new luxury cars. The growth of luxury car market this year is reflected in good performance in various markets, especially in large and medium-sized cities, counties and townships, where the performance of luxury cars is relatively strong and there is no structural differentiation. The traditional luxury cars in restricted cities are also growing in total, and together with new energy vehicles, they promote the high growth of restricted cities.
With the insurance reform, the insurance profit has decreased significantly this year. Especially after the recent insurance reform, the total agency scale of dealer insurance has decreased. In addition, the policies of insurance companies have been tightened and the rebate has been significantly reduced, resulting in relatively great pressure on insurance operation.
Customer acquisition cost is one of the key indicators to evaluate whether it can grow sustainably for a long time. At present, the biggest pressure on dealers is the relatively high cost of getting customers. Although there are more clues and channels to obtain potential customers due to technological progress, dealers need to turn more clues into sales. Therefore, manufacturers need to empower dealers through digital marketing and other means, improve dealers’ ability to effectively obtain sales leads and avoid vicious price competition.
7. Three guarantees for new vehicles, increase electric vehicle guarantee and refine rights and responsibilities requirements
On July 26, the State Administration of Market Supervision announced the new version of the “Three Guarantees” policy of the provisions on the responsibility for repair, replacement and return of household automotive products, which will come into force on January 1, 2022. The original provisions shall be repealed at the same time.
The new “Three Guarantees” policy for household automotive products is to improve the provisions on the handling of controversial issues in the original three guarantees provisions and protect the interests of consumers and enterprises. In particular, many consumers do not understand the three guarantees policy, and many retailers love to exploit policy loopholes, which makes it more difficult for ordinary consumers to protect their rights. Therefore, this policy will be refined and improved.
At the same time, the new three guarantees keep pace with the times, adapt to the current trend of rapid growth in sales and ownership of new energy vehicles, and private users’ purchase has become the main force. It is a necessary measure to keep pace with the times to protect the legitimate rights and interests of automobile consumers.
The main changes of the three guarantees policy are as follows: first, the scope of application of the three guarantees has increased pickup trucks; 2、 The scope of Sanbao is sales in China; 3、 Three guarantees clarify the responsibilities of importers of imported vehicles; 4、 Three guarantees to adapt to the new sales agency model; 5、 Three bags of cars can’t be mailed; 6、 San Bao deleted the information confidentiality requirements; 7、 Standardization and refinement of three guarantees; 8、 The warranty period starts from the delivery date; 9、 Car three guarantees do not need to prove “I am me”; 10、 Increase the three guarantees project for electric vehicles; 11、 The standby vehicle and compensation for vehicle repair start from the sixth day; 12、 The regulations on returning and changing vehicles within 7 days of three guarantees are implemented; 13、 The maintenance time of three guarantees return and replacement vehicles is reduced to 30 days or 4 times; 14、 If you return the car, you have to pay for the decoration; 15、 The use compensation coefficient of returned and replaced vehicles is lower than 0.5%; 16、 The owner’s own out of store maintenance meets the three guarantees.