Author: Sun Shi of Tencent Technology
In the early morning of May 17, 2019 Beijing time, the US Department of Commerce officially listed Huawei in the “entity list” and prohibited US enterprises from selling relevant technologies and products to China.
After two years, Huawei is now almost facing the situation of no “core” available, and mobile phones cannot be produced, sold and delivered normally. Although the list of the top five manufacturers has not changed much, the mobile phone industry has ushered in a complete change.
Huawei is hard to find in the top five in the world
As can be seen from the above moving picture, although Huawei was included in the entity list two years ago, thanks to several temporary license extensions, TSMC and other manufacturers can still produce chips for Huawei normally.
It is reported that TSMC urgently received additional orders from Huawei, coordinated and misappropriated production capacity, and produced all orders submitted by Huawei.
Therefore, as of the third quarter of 2020, Huawei’s mobile phone shipment has not been greatly affected. Even in the second quarter of 2020, Huawei once surpassed Samsung and became the largest smartphone manufacturer in the world.
But after September 15 last year, TSMC could no longer produce chips for Huawei. It was also from the third quarter of last year that Huawei’s shipment volume dropped sharply. Especially in the fourth quarter of last year, Huawei’s shipment volume was 32.3 million units, a year-on-year decline of more than 40%, ranking the fifth. By the first quarter of 2021, Huawei’s figure could not be found in the top five.
The response of the domestic market is relatively lagging behind. It was not until the fourth quarter of last year that Huawei’s mobile phone sales in the Chinese market plummeted. However, according to IDC, Huawei’s mobile phone shipments at that time still ranked first in the domestic market.
However, according to the latest canalys data, in the first quarter of 2021, Huawei’s mobile phone shipment volume in the domestic market was 13.5 million units, a year-on-year decline of 50%, ranking third in China. The top two were occupied by vivo and oppo respectively. Compared with Xiaomi, the market share was only 1 percentage point lower.
Huawei’s high-end market, which was lost in China, was basically eaten up by the iPhone
As Huawei is squeezed out of the top five in the global market, its market share will inevitably be filled by another company or several other companies, while the gap in the domestic high-end market is basically occupied by the iPhone.
We define a mobile phone with a price above 5000 yuan as a high-end market, while a mobile phone with a price above 8000 yuan is a super high-end market. Public data show that apple is the absolute main force in the market of more than 8000 yuan, while Huawei can barely compete with Apple by virtue of mate and P series.
In the fourth quarter of last year, in the range of more than 8000 yuan, Apple’s market share was 87.2%, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.52%. At this time, Huawei launched mate 40 series, which was called Kirin chip out of print mobile phone by the outside world. Therefore, there was a rush to buy in the market, with a year-on-year growth rate of 630.8%, far higher than apple.
However, in the first quarter of this year, Apple’s market share leaped over the 90% mark, with a year-on-year growth of 260.3%, while Huawei’s market share fell to 5.1%, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 75.7%. This shows that Huawei’s market share is rapidly losing in the super high-end market, and the consumers who can’t buy mate 40 series are quickly transferred to Apple camp.
The same is true for the high-end market between 5000 yuan and 8000 yuan. Apple’s market share increased from 50.43% in the fourth quarter of last year to 59%, while Huawei’s market share decreased from 41.99% to 36.7%.
Therefore, it can be seen that in the high-end mobile phone market of at least 5000 yuan, apple is very delicious.
With the rapid rise of vivo and oppo, should China’s market present a situation of double dominance?
Judging from the share of domestic mobile phone market in the past two years, except Huawei, no mobile phone manufacturer has more than 20% share. Even in the fourth quarter of the year when Apple’s sales were the most prosperous, it did not break this figure.
But since the first quarter of this year, the record has become history. Canalys data shows that in the first quarter of this year, vivo and oppo had a domestic market share of 23% and 22% respectively, both surpassing Huawei, while the latter was only 16%.
In addition, it should be noted that among the top five mobile phone manufacturers in the Chinese market, Huawei is the only one with a negative growth rate, with a year-on-year decline of 50%, far behind its competitors. Among other manufacturers, even oppo, which has the slowest growth rate, has a year-on-year growth rate of 65%. It is expected that Huawei’s domestic share will soon be eroded by other manufacturers.
At present, in the domestic market, there is a big gap between Xiaomi’s shipment and vivo and oppo’s, and Apple’s peak sales season is in the fourth quarter. It is expected that vivo and oppo will still be in the top two positions in the domestic market in the future.
Millet has become the second largest mobile phone manufacturer in Europe
Compared with being held down by vivo and oppo in China, Xiaomi’s momentum in Europe is extremely fierce.
According to canalys data, in the first quarter of this year, with 23% of the market share, Xiaomi surpassed apple and ranked the second largest mobile phone manufacturer in Europe, just behind Samsung, while Huawei fell to the fourth place, with only 4% of the market share, and the shipment volume fell to 81% year on year. In the second quarter of last year, the market share of both sides was basically the same.
The same is true for the Western European market. According to the limited data of canalys, in the first quarter of last year, Huawei’s market share reached 18%, and Xiaomi’s market share reached 10%. A year later, Xiaomi’s market share reached 15%, and oppo’s market share reached 3%.
At present, Africa is one of Huawei’s few markets with relatively stable development. According to couturepoint, in 2020, Huawei’s share in the extraordinary market was 8%, ranking fourth, compared with 10% in the previous year, with a slight decline.
This may have something to do with the fact that 5g has not yet been popularized in the African market. The head of GSMA Africa said last year that 4G penetration is still below 10%. This means that 5g is far from universal in Africa.
In addition, at the end of last year, some media said that Qualcomm had obtained the license to sell 4G chips to Huawei, and Huawei could continue to produce and sell 4G mobile phones. 4G mobile phones in China, Europe and the United States and other markets have not much competitiveness, and for the African market, there is still a certain market space to digest.
Of course, 4G mobile phones do not have much profit to contribute at present. It is questionable whether Huawei needs to stick to the African market.