The midfield battle of community group buying: will it cool down in 2021?

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Head picture visual China
Product: Huchou business group
By Fang Yu
Original title: community group buying midfield battle: turning point in July
Will community group buying cool down in 2021?
The answer is yes – No.
As a matter of fact, the war has entered the second stage, in which the vassal states are divided into different regimes.
On the pulse platform, some users left a message saying that the Internet giant is starting to cut the BD team on a large scale. The news can not be verified from official channels, but according to the times weekly, as of December 30, there were about 310 cities and 1200 townships opened by meituan, and the “thousand cities plan” planned in September has been completed. Considering that the first stage of the Internet giant’s horse racing enclosure has been basically completed, it is reasonable for a large number of BD personnel to transform or withdraw from the battlefield.
Screenshot of anonymous message on pulse
At the same time, Duoduo has opened about 237 cities (as of December 31, 2020); the layout of Xingsheng has also covered 13 provinces and cities (because there is no official data, except for some of the source data, all of them are from the market and capital estimates). Moreover, after investing in Jingdong, Xingsheng youyou obtained Tencent’s $100 million financing to supplement the capital ammunition. In this way, the main players in the market in the short term will not be under the table. Meituan preferred, buy more vegetables and Xingsheng preferred are in a tripartite position.
New players are still in. According to public information, HEMA has officially started testing the community group buying business in Wuhan by the end of 2020. In addition to Tongcheng life, Ali has also sent its own legitimate troops.
Before 2020, fresh retail has also been highly concerned by the capital, and entrepreneurial projects continue, but the giants are more wait-and-see or provide ammunition, and will not end all in person. What are the differences of community group buying? Why is it so popular with giants?
Weng Yinuo, founder of Hongzhang capital, who has invested in jiajiayue, shengxianzhuan and qiandama, believes that retail industry has the attribute of “platform like”, and community group buying has given giants new opportunities. As a new platform, community group buying is different from the existing Internet e-commerce platform. It may really open up China’s sinking market. Hongzhang capital also believes that this new platform may not be a trillion level super platform like Taobao, but the market scale will be between 10 billion and 100 billion.
On the other hand, the cornerstone of community group buying is actually a large number of small and medium-sized owners (grid warehouses and leaders) who bring funds or resources into the market, which actually coincides with the mentality of private funds seeking a way out and small business owners seeking to increase income and become rich.
However, if you really want to make a new community life platform to open up the sinking market, the reality is far more complicated than the giant thought.
According to media reports, at the beginning of 2021, the logistics service providers of Duoduo’s vegetable shopping began to pull banners in Hubei to collect debts, while meituan youyou quietly withdrew the user’s right to return the goods and changed it into a unified return.
On the evening of January 10, a driver pulled a banner to ask for salary in Duoduo’s Jiangxia general warehouse, and Jiuyuan put Duoduo as Duoduo’s logistics partner.
On the Internet, a picture of a suspected dealer discarding a large number of returned fresh goods as garbage has been widely spread. Due to the rapid development of business, most of the platforms have no reverse logistics capability, resulting in serious waste of goods.
Return goods of a community group buying network
Community group buying has aroused great concern of the whole society. After the Ministry of Commerce and the market supervision and Administration Bureau jointly issued the “nine no” Regulations for community group buying, Xiaogan Municipal Government of Hubei Province signed an agreement with the community group buying platform to stipulate “ten no” Regulations for community group buying. This just shows that the birth of a new platform must focus on balancing the demands of various interest groups in order to get more help from those who are enlightened.
Tiger smell judgment: this summer, that is, six months later, the community group buying track may usher in an inflection point. ——Don’t take the number of Kaesong seriously. Genghis Khan also hit the hinterland of the European continent.
After a new round of consolidation, the market pattern will be initially determined at that time, and some players may be unable to bear the heavy load to exit. The survival of the players will form a trend of separatism, each has a dominant market, long-term confrontation. If players want to build real differentiated competitiveness (commodity power, service power, logistics performance ability, supply chain system, etc.), they may need to make continuous investment for as long as 3-5 years. Differentiation is one of the themes of 2021.
This paper attempts to analyze the “pattern” and “end” of the war from the perspective of the competitive nature of community group buying.
Pattern and school: advantages and disadvantages of the three giants
The consensus in the industry is that community group buying will not be the only market. At present, from the data, in Hunan market, prosperity has obvious advantages. At the end of 2020, the number of orders of Xingsheng optimization is about 10 million, while that of Hunan is about 4 million, which is still its core base. Although the other giants cover a wide range, they have their own advantageous markets, and they are also several key regions, such as pinduoduo in Guangdong and Jiangxi, meituan in Shandong and Hubei, etc.
This means that the competitors may rely on their own regional advantages to attack and defend each other for a long time. The characteristics of community group buying are supply chain and service localization. Li Li, founder of Jiacheng capital, who has invested in the group, pointed out that when considering investment, what we valued was not the Gmv of the group, but the resilience and accounting ability of the team. After all, it was still a retail business. “As long as you stick to the card table, there’s still a chance.”
To know what the future of community group buying might look like, we should first summarize the current development pattern of community group buying, and then analyze its future possibilities.
We found that players in the current market can be divided into three categories according to their origins:
The first category is meituan, pinduoduo, didi and other Internet players;
The second category is entrepreneurial companies, represented by Xingsheng optimization.
The third type is the transformation of physical retailers to do community group buying, but this kind of players are more as a store supplementary business.
However, no matter what kind of players, in the eyes of consumers, the core attraction of community group buying is two: low price and punctual performance.
Following this line of thinking, we think that there are three representative playing styles, which can be regarded as independent schools——
1. Xingsheng Optimization: convenience store + sunken logistics network;
2 meituan (preferred): strong BD + private play;

3 pinduoduo (Duoduo shopping): agricultural products boom + Super app.
Many articles will also mention another Internet giant, Didi, and orange heart optimization has a large voice in the market. However, considering that it is a public secret in the industry, that is to say, orange heart takes SKU as the unit of order counting. For example, if a person buys five bottles of coke, it will count as five orders instead of one. In addition, orange heart optimization has the ability to kill the enemy by one thousand and lose eight hundred (for details, please refer to the article “orange heart optimization, looking back on the shore” in the article 4000 of Cayman); at present, maybe the model of orange heart optimization has not been fully thought out, so this paper does not need to discuss it.
Let’s look at prosperity first.
The core of the model is “convenience store + fresh”. At first, based on the existing more than 9000 Furong Xingsheng convenience stores (now the number has exceeded 13000), we helped the owners to increase their income. At the same time, we relied on the stores to increase the stability of performance and the sense of trust of community users. There are many analysis articles on this point, which will not be repeated. In addition, xingshengyou has a strong local supply chain capability in the base market, such as Hunan market, for example, it can provide more than 12 kinds of local chilies in Hunan, which has also been reported by the media. Prosperity can be said to be the representative of the base areas.
At the present stage, the only moat with unique characteristics is logistics. The logistics team of Xingsheng is said to have more than 15000 people. Logistics is not something that can be solved with money. It takes time, team and infrastructure to build the whole system, which is time-consuming and labor-consuming.
Pictures from thriving official account
This is even the core reason for the prosperity of Jingdong alliance. It is said that Jingdong is famous for its heavy investment in logistics. After years of accumulation, Jingdong Logistics has formed six logistics networks (small and medium pieces, large pieces, cold chain, cross-border, crowdsourcing and B2B). Normally, it is difficult for other giants to catch up with Jingdong Logistics in the short term. But this is still not enough in the face of a sinking market.
In short, because the logistics system of sinking market needs “pipeline”, not just “network”. For example, which is more difficult to send a box of fruit from Beijing to Urumqi or from Changsha to the village below Shaodong county? The former can be done by any first-line express company now. The latter needs stable transport capacity, which is exactly the ability of prosperity and optimization. It has formed a “three-dimensional” channel in Hunan market through early layout, that is, “warehouse” should be in front of “goods”. And prosperity can be combined with the existing six networks of Jingdong Logistics. So at this stage, when the advantages of Xingsheng optimization are gradually catching up, its logistics system is still a barrier.
The challenge of prosperity lies in that the giants turn a regional war into a national war. Can the Hunan based team adapt to the national war? In fact, it puts forward high requirements for the organization of the company.
Secondly, meituan (meituan preferred).
Compared with other Internet players, the biggest advantage of meituan lies in the balance between the front and back ends and strong learning ability. Due to its abundant funds and strong executive power, meituan made a quick breakthrough in the two matters of opening up a new city and winning over the head of the group. In the case of Kaesong, the digital results at least show the coverage ability of the meituan team, and whether it can stay or not.
In terms of attracting team leaders, meituan directly increased the Commission to more than 15% on the basis of 10% of Xingsheng preferred. Lure it with profit. Weng Yinuo pointed out that compared with many traditional retail models, there is actually a weak connection between the community group buying platform and the team leader. The instability of the team leader makes it relatively easy for new players to enter the community for group buying.
On the other hand, meituan is fierce at the front end, and has not forgotten the ability to build the back end. According to media reports, meituan is trying its best to win over the head of the team, but for another group, the key link in the implementation of the contract, the management of grid warehouse franchisees is becoming increasingly strict. In logistics, fortress tactics are used to encroach on the opponent’s market, step by step, to ensure that the front and back ends are not disjointed. In addition, as meituan preferred has the experience of taking out, it is also handy for the operation of private domain traffic.
Meituan’s local promotion army has strong executive power
The challenge of meituan optimization lies in whether it really regards community group buying as a retail business in the future or a Gmv model telling a good story to capital? It should be noted that user increment is not equal to market increment.
To do retail business, we need to polish the supply chain for a long time, calculate detailed accounts, and finally make profits. The localized supply chain property of community group buying means that the bigger the stalls are, the more losses they may have. The more cities they open today, the more pitfalls they may have in the future. Because the national layout at the same time, but also differentiated goods, localized logistics, at the same time, customer unit price can not be too low, compression margin space. At present, the average unit price of meituan is only 15 yuan under the subsidy, which is unprecedented difficulty to make profits.
A partner of a front-line investment institution told Hu olfy that meituan finally decided to enter the community group buying, not because it was fresh, but because the community group buying company moved the “cheese” of meituan’s local life, which meituan could not tolerate. “You think meituan is attacking, but Wang Xing is defending.”
If the logic of high frequency to low frequency is true, then high frequency goods (fresh) to low frequency services (community life) is also possible. Liu Chen, co-founder of the club, also mentioned in a public speech that “fresh food is just the entry point. In addition to daily necessities, the products sold by the club include virtual electronic products, hot pot coupons, hot spring coupons, drama coupons, etc. for local life.”
So conversely, meituan also has another choice, that is to build a traffic platform and return to its familiar local life to make other profits.
However, meituan also needs to be careful of the social systemic risks brought by excessive wolf culture, so as to avoid becoming the next public enemy of the whole people. From the government’s point of view, community group buying is not necessarily the end of supervision, but also the starting point.
Let’s look at pinduoduo.
One of the most interesting things about Duoduo’s shopping mode is that it weakens the team leader. It is said that the team leader’s Commission of pinduoduo is relatively low among various platforms, some of which are only 5%.

Because in the logic of Duoduo’s shopping, I have a mature super app called “pinduoduo”. The flow of Duoduo’s shopping is not a problem, it doesn’t need to be renewed, it’s more a link of performance. Therefore, the team leader who buys more vegetables only does half of the work of others, so naturally the Commission will be reduced.
Although pinduoduo does not pass the team leader’s guidance, there are still ways to localize it. “Maybe you are the team leader and the person next door is also the team leader. You don’t know each other at all, but pinduoduo can accurately match your suitable users according to the data and pick up the goods on your door.” A person in the industry pointed out to Hu olfactory that this is where Internet companies are strong.
Pinduoduo’s confidence in doing so is not only due to the flow technology, but also due to the upstream resources of agricultural products. It is claimed that there are hundreds of billions of agricultural products trading volume. In the community group buying war in 2020, many of the ultra-low price smashes that make peers “angry” are initiated by pinduoduo. If pinduoduo has the source of goods in the upstream, it will have the confidence. Although it is difficult to survive after the “nine no’s”, pinduoduo’s commodity supply chain foundation still exists.
The core problem of pinduoduo is precisely that it weakens the path choice of public domain traffic in private domain. It is generally believed that the team leader mode is the core link of community group buying, and the community service has great flexibility. Without the team leader, is it still called community group buying?
In fact, from the perspective of consumers, no matter what genre your platform is, the most important thing is that the price of goods is cheap and the quality is reasonable. This is actually a matter of commodity power. In the first stage, we all use fresh water to drain. At the level of public opinion, the giants also claim that they are gradually transforming the fresh water supply chain and promoting the circulation efficiency of agricultural products. But is fresh water really important to the giants? Maybe we can see some clues in six months.
Is selling fresh food a cover?
Why six months later, this summer, will be the watershed of community group buying?
Stand on the streets of Wuhan in winter for ten minutes, and you will soon understand. Wuhan in winter can be said to drop water into ice, the hands of a cup of hot milk tea can quickly cool into a cup of “Arctic Ocean”. This just means that this is the time window with the lowest fresh distribution cost. Because even if your cold chain is poor, it doesn’t matter. Wuhan is cold enough. This city is a big cold storage.
Wuhan is a big city with a population of 10 million and one of the cities with the best consumption habits of community group buying. There are four distinct seasons here. In summer, the highest temperature in Wuhan is usually 37 or 38 degrees, while the surface temperature may exceed 40 degrees. Now the star product eggs used by the giants for drainage will be ripe when they are put outdoors for a while. At the moment, it is understandable that the giants are speeding up their expansion in winter.
But tiger sniff is worried that for fresh food, three meals a day, the stock consumption market (before there was no community group purchase, it was for stock), the giants just used it as a cover for drainage, they may not want to change the industry, and they do not have the ability. The difficulty in making profits for fresh products is a universal problem, so the drainage may only be a phased means. Once the giant forms a scale, the fresh products will fall out of favor.
Recently Duoduo has entered Shanghai to buy vegetables, but the consumers in Shanghai are the most picky. Can the quality of pinduoduo’s products keep up? This is the biggest question in the industry. “The retail industry is more fast, better and more economical. At present, the role of community group buying is mainly provincial.” A fresh food practitioner in Shanghai said frankly. The implication is that many (rich), fast (instant) and good (quality) are ignored. Because most of the community group buying can’t make frozen fresh food, dingdong, who has the first advantage in frozen fresh food, doesn’t worry too much about buying more food in Shanghai.
Make complaints about a consumer in a circle of friends
Community group buying can’t even cover all the people who need fresh food from their families. In the most competitive Wuhan market, the local community fresh food chain tianshenpei is still opening new stores. The reason is that “my customers are mainly aunts and aunts, and the customers of community group buying are mainly office workers.” The founder of Tian Xianpei said to Hu olfactory. There is also a consensus on this point. China Merchants Securities pointed out in the report that the main users of community group buying “are married middle-aged women in the third and fourth tier cities”. ——”Turnover acceleration and cost reduction, supply and demand framework of community group buying”
Similarly, with the current supply chain and cold chain capacity, many community group buying platforms sell “fresh”, and can not let an ordinary family make a complete meal. “How many companies dare to make meat and frozen products on the community group buying platform now? Why is it that in places where the battle of group buying in the community is fierce, such community fresh food platforms as aunt Qian still open stores and expand, and they can’t feel the pressure of competition? ” A Wuhan retail industry personage asked, his answer is: “because 40% of aunt Qian’s goods are meat, she has an absolute advantage in the category of pork, and meituan pinduoduo has no ability to compete with it at present.”
This view has also been verified by the insiders of aunt Qian. During the half year of the crazy expansion of group buying in the community, aunt Qian still opened stores everywhere, and there is no pressure to divert for the time being. According to the latest news, by the end of 2020, there will be 2700 stores nationwide. In the second half of 2020, there will be an increase of more than 700 in the busiest six months of group buying in Chacha community. According to interface news, Qian plans to cover all mainland markets except northeast China in 2021.
Community group buying did not affect the continued expansion of fresh food shops in the community, and the main customer groups covered by the two were different.
Community group buying did not affect the continued expansion of fresh food shops in the community, and the main customer groups covered by the two were different.
So what is the fresh sales of community group buying? It’s mainly the logic of big single products. A native Wuhan retail practitioner takes his cooking experience as an example. He said that the role of community group buying is more about side dishes. If you promote the sale of cucumbers today, I’ll take a few. There will always be time to fry cucumbers this week.

He found that the big platform in fact is the fresh big single product as a hot money to drain. For example, a certain platform in Wuhan has taken 10000 orders (real orders) in a certain community today. It feels that there are quite a lot of them and has obtained 10000 users. But the actual situation is that today to catch up with the scallion promotion, scallion alone may have sold 8000 orders. The advantage of large single product is that the back-end logistics pressure is small and the sorting is simple. In the early days of the frequent opening up of giants, the more effective the big piece playing method is. The representative works are Chinese cabbage with one cent, potatoes with a few cents and eggs with more than two yuan (10 pieces).
Potatoes with super low price promotion on community group buying platform
Many people in the industry believe that fresh food in community group buying is a drainage product, not a source of profit. From the perspective of profit, fresh food may not be the main commodity of community group buying in the future, and community group buying may not be the main sales channel of fresh food. Even the team leader knows that in different categories, the Commission for selling fresh food is the lowest, ranging from 3% to 5%. If you want to make more money, you need to reduce the proportion of fresh goods. In the series of reports on community group buying, China Merchants Securities said frankly that the proportion of fresh community group buying should be controlled below 35%.
Cai Jingzhong, a partner of Galaxy venture capital, a selected investor of koala, even thinks that in fact, it is difficult for community group buying to become a business form independently in the future, but only a supplement. “Unless you monopolize some areas with high density, or you have exclusive commodities like Maotai to realize. On the one hand, in terms of category structure, it may only have a greater impact on some price sensitive and standardized categories. For example, fruits and other categories. On the other hand, because the target consumers of community group buying are usually price sensitive customers, the community group buying platform will not be used as a daily purchasing channel. So I think the community group buying rate is to help a giant do diversion, earn diversion fees. ” He said at the 2020 fresh food class held by the “third eye to retail”.
So today, with the end of the first round of horse racing enclosure, community group buying is gradually showing or returning to its true colors. Perhaps, the so-called Internet giants using technology to transform the fresh circulation industry may be a cover. What they pursue is only the increment of users, not the “flesh body” of community group buying. Before the introduction of the “nine no” mentioned above, these 2.99 yuan eggs have been sold, and consumers have indeed collected the giant’s wool. But it may be a joke to say that China’s agricultural products have improved and farmers have made profits.
In order to win customers, a platform with ten eggs 2.99 yuan price hit all over the central and western regions. But tiger sniff learned that Meicai, the largest egg private brand in China, sold 5 billion eggs a year. The price of 10 eggs for American food also costs 4.3 yuan.
Fierce price war can not promote the evolution of fresh food industry. Why fresh food is difficult to do, in addition to the control loss of old students in the industry in the past, another point is that fresh food circulation must face the reality of China’s agricultural production and circulation, “in a word, we should understand the local conditions and customs, but also understand human nature.” Wuhan fresh practitioners said.
How to understand human nature when selling a dish? He told tiger olfactory two stories. Once someone went to Yantai, Shandong Province to collect apples. When he collected them, he found that the top two layers of a basket of apples were good apples, and the bad ones were covered under. Another time, someone went to Shandong to collect potatoes. After the whole car was pulled back, the knowledgeable person told him that these potatoes were from Inner Mongolia. They were transported to Shandong and then sold in China. Of course, the potatoes from Inner Mongolia can be eaten without any problem. It’s just that what you eat is the price of potatoes from Shandong, and the other party can still earn money after a round trip. It takes time and contacts to recognize these gateways.
“For consumers, a dime potato can be eaten. I don’t care if it’s a yellow heart Shandong potato? The key is that the giant has the ability to provide a dime of potatoes to the market for three or five years in a row? ” The practitioner asked. The answer is obvious. If we all do this, no one will want to plant yellow heart potatoes.
Of course, some capital think that it is also a path choice for the giants to transform the upstream after ensuring the scale of the terminal and the stability of performance.
The proportion of fresh food gradually decreases, who will increase? The real impact is FMCG. So why in the past six months, a lot of big brands have sprung up and directly banned group buying platforms in communities. It’s a good thing for new channels to join the distribution system. Why is it that the bigger the brand, the less the community group buying?
A popular story is that an Internet giant group buying platform promoted the milk products of a national dairy brand at a low price in Hebei Province. The biggest local dealer was angry and threatened to charge as much as you sell. The big dealer had a deep foundation, and eventually took back thousands of cases of milk. In the end, he would not pay for it himself, and let the brand operators do it by themselves. In the end, the brand operators paid for it by themselves. Brand business suffered dumb losses, naturally angry, in turn, the Internet platform blocked.
Then, since we have offended, we should simply carry out the revolution to the end. In terms of FMCG standard products, is it possible for community group buying to replace traditional channels and become a new main channel, and reach in-depth cooperation with brands to promote new products? This involves another problem. Is the channel of community group buying suitable for big brands? We should know that the user label of community group buying is price sensitive, pursuing cost performance, and the perception of brand premium is weak. Therefore, it can be said that this road is impassable. The two camps can only be at the same level.
However, some retail practitioners believe that the reform of the distribution system of FMCG will take place sooner or later, and the distribution mode of price increase at different levels has long been unable to meet the needs of the market. In this regard, the community group buying platform is forcing the change to accelerate. Wan Meiji, a former retail executive and “supermarket Laowan”, pointed out that the real point of conflict at present is that the big platform is relatively strong, and suppliers will be required to bear the cost of subsidies together, which is what the suppliers suffer.
Whether the team leader and grid warehouse can make money decides the life and death of community group buying
Community group buying can cause price impact on some fresh and fast-moving products. The premise is that these products have been standardized or close to the standard. But from another point of view, under the strategy of big single product boom, if you do have the ability to differentiate goods, it’s easier to rise. For example, who has Maotai in hand, then the platform and channel are not important.

So from the perspective of the supply side, this may also be an opportunity for new brands. Li Li, founder of Jiacheng capital, holds this view. Li Li pointed out, “at present, according to the scale of the products, the order is fruits and vegetables, fresh; dairy products; FMCG; Ribai and small household appliances. There will be some new entrepreneurial opportunities or companies. For example, there are enterprises in Sichuan that specialize in the origin, help community group buying and other platforms to receive goods. In addition, if there are some contents of supply side innovation, such as new brands and supply, we are very willing to spend time, energy and money on them. ”
American cuisine believes that with the development of community group buying, it’s time to incubate the leader of fresh food supply chain. Giants fight in the terminal, but more and more capital will be invested in the upstream supply chain.
Another opportunity lies in the small and medium-sized owners. Wanmingzhi believes that the positive significance of community group buying is that it is a rare opportunity for the transformation of China’s 6 million husband and wife stores. There are three possibilities: one is to join a chain convenience store, one is to become a chain specialty store (fruit store), and the other is to still be a grocery store and embrace the online platform. Grocery stores are the easiest to link with community group buying. They can use the platform to improve the commodity structure and strengthen community stickiness.
Hongzhang capital points out that community group buying will eventually lead to the revaluation of community physical stores (brand convenience stores, husband and wife stores, etc.).
However, whether you open a shop, be a team leader, or join the grid warehouse, whether these partners (team leader, grid warehouse) make money or not will determine the life and death of the community group buying platform.
As I said earlier, there has always been a difference in the attitude of the head of the team among Xingsheng Youyou, meituan and Duoduo. Many of the core team leaders of Xingsheng are the store owners of Furong Xingsheng, who are the store manager + team leader. At the end of 2020, a rumor has caused a lot of panic among the team leaders, that is, a screenshot shows that meituan plans to replace the team leader with a takeaway rider. This rumor has been confirmed by many parties. It should be different from the fact. The truth is that meituan has brought in many service providers who worked together as takeout in those years to do community group buying.
For many people, community group buying is a way to increase income, not loyalty. So it’s common for one person to have multiple groups, which is why it’s impossible for a single platform to dominate. There are always people in this market who are fast in and fast out. If it’s not fun, it’s not fun. What really supports this model is to see how many leaders can stick to it for a long time. Some people in the industry think that in the long run, the team leader should be full-time rather than part-time.
But the question is, how much do you earn to support yourself? From the current data, the head of the Commission of 5000 yuan per month or a small number of heads. According to the report of the future consumer app, 10 team leaders from various provinces and cities were randomly interviewed on various platforms, among which 8 team leaders had no more than 50 orders per day, most of which were between 20 and 30 orders. Only two team leaders have a daily order volume of nearly 100 orders (at present, the customer order of community group buying is about 10-25 yuan, and the commission ratio is 5% – 15%, the author notes).
The leader’s upstream is the grid warehouse. This is actually a cross category logistics transfer center mainly invested by private investors. Although sparrow is small and full of five internal organs, it may need multi-level warehouse allocation capacity in the future. It is the most critical and bold innovation in the whole community group buying model.
The main battlefield of community group buying is in the third and fourth line and lower market, which is very disadvantageous to intensive storage and transportation due to the market dispersion. If the logistics mode of Jingdong e-commerce is complete, the investment will be huge. Grid warehouse actually uses crowdsourcing to disperse the risk of insufficient order density and shorten the investment return cycle.
In fact, it’s a bit like the franchise system that has been mature in the express industry. The network scale of many bosses who join in express companies is equivalent to that of a regional logistics company. They have outlets, stable transport capacity (cooperative fleet), skilled workers, pallets in warehouses and other necessary tools. At present, the grid warehouse is similar to piecework compensation, the amount of income is related to the amount of processing orders, at the same time, we should avoid mistakes and reduce fines.
The core point is also, can grid warehouse investors make money? By earning money, we mean that we can solve the problem of return on investment without subsidies.
China Merchants Securities in the Research Report “performance restructuring to improve efficiency, warehousing and logistics to meet changes” in the calculation that the investment return period of grid warehouse is generally 14 months. In other words, in the second half of last year, when the giants entered the market, the first batch of grid operators should have reached the break even point in July this year. So the decisive battle is in July this year. The fate of the first entrants in grid warehouse has a great influence on the confidence of the later entrants.
Tiger smell in some community group buying investors learned that compared with the long flow of the team leader, the investment return cycle of grid warehouse investors is longer. What they are most worried about is that due to the fierce competition, the order density in the region is not enough, and the warehousing and logistics is invested in advance. If they do not work or do less, they will lose money. In addition, they have to face increasingly stringent assessment.
Meituan grid warehouse management ticket circulated on the Internet
The management and operation of grid warehouse itself has a threshold. The logistics industry and the retail industry also need to test their basic skills, which can not be done with money. For example, experts have found out a relatively stable “fare ratio” of warehouses and “loading rate” of different categories. But for the new investment approach of Xiaobai, may have never heard of such logistics terms. Even if we have heard of “loading rate”, the current loading level of China’s logistics and freight industry is still highly dependent on skilled workers.

Some analysts believe that community group buying is still based on the regional market. Internet companies regard the whole country as a big market, which is more like the idea of “sea power theory”. Sea power theory advocates to win by fleet and tonnage, and now it is manifested as flooding traffic and pursuing total single volume. And community group buying is not only land war, but also Hill war, jungle war and street war. Only when the regional order density is sufficient can the grid warehouse and team leader make profits. However, the stock attribute of community group buying determines that excessive competition and resource investment in the unit area will definitely not be conducive to the order density of a single platform, or even kill each other. The group leader and grid warehouse that can not support will withdraw, and eventually force the platform to readjust their layout and resource investment, including setting the threshold for small B investors.
Therefore, although many platforms have opened up cities, how many cities can be retained in the end will be known in the first half of 2021. Only when part of the repeated resources are gradually withdrawn from the market, can the whole community group buying industry develop healthily and become a new circulation platform for platform, franchisee and consumer to win.