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Wen / Liu Rui / Chen Shuai
Source: Yuanchuan science and Technology Review (ID: kechuangch)
Product: Science and technology group of Yuanchuan Research Institute
Support: Luo Siyuan, chief analyst of Shenwan Hongyuan Electronics
In early 2021, Tesla continued to swipe the screen in Chinese media because of model y. But in the excitement, people seem to forget the fact that Tesla has almost no core R & D team in China.
The company, which has been pulled out of the quagmire by Chinese manufacturing workers and consumers, still has almost all its R & D power in California. For example, wired magazine once reported Tesla’s “mysterious second floor” in California, where Tesla was born with advanced manufacturing technologies such as battery, transmission and power electronics, giving birth to Tesla’s process improvement up to 50 times a week .
In China, Tesla has no independent R & D team. Most of the 1831 jobs advertised on Chinese mainland websites belong to posts such as production, delivery, sales and customer support. The R & D posts of manufacturing technology are few, and software and AI are few. In other words, Tesla’s core secret is still thousands of miles away in California.
Take model y as an example. The successful localization of this brush screen car is due to the fact that the workers in Shanghai Lingang super factory work in three shifts day and night, but the decisive role is Tesla’s research and development of automation equipment.
For example, in December last year, a foreign media captured a giant machine 19.5 meters long, 5.3 meters high and the size of a basketball court in the Lingang factory by aerial photography. This is an aluminum casting process die casting machine jointly developed by Tesla and Italian industrial machinery giant Idra. This die casting machine just arrived in Shanghai a few months ago, and it can’t wait to start running after debugging.
The machine, called gigapress, weighs 410 tons, equivalent to the sum of five space shuttles. It can transform the complex production process of traditional frame, which needs to process and assemble 70 parts, and weld 1000 to 1500 times, into a simple die casting process, which makes welding two hours into die casting two minutes. At the same time, it also saves 20% of the cost for model y .
Gigapress die casting machine, Fremont, California
In order to make this die casting machine useful, Tesla even recruited Apple alloy expert Charles Koeman to develop corresponding aluminum alloy materials. The famous work of Apple alloy team is the integrated aluminum body of Mac computer. Under the same density, the material strength is 60% higher than that of standard aluminum alloy. This means that even if other manufacturers buy Tesla’s die-casting machine, there are no good materials to process.
Die casting machines and aluminum are just the tip of Tesla’s manufacturing technology. In fact, Tesla, which claims to achieve 100% localization, still has core components such as manufacturing equipment, autopilot automatic driving assistance system, high-precision sensors and electric motor control firmly grasped by the U.S. R & D center, while those to China are still assembly plants, parts factories and after-sales centers.
Who was the last company whose product sold like crazy in China, but there was almost no core R & D team in China? Yes, it’s an apple.
More than 90% of the 200 million mobile phones sold by apple every year are produced in China, but all the chips, operating systems, and the latest product planning and design drawings are completed in Apple’s headquarters in California. Apple’s mind has always been clearly printed on the back of its products: design by apple in California, assembled in China.
And this “China only has supply chain, no innovation and R & D” industrial division has created a special phenomenon about the manufacturing industry in China and the United States: in terms of the size of the industrial chain, the number of employees, the number of American enterprises far behind China, but in the product terminal, Apple’s net profit is equivalent to 20 times of the sum of the profits of the 12 largest A-share Apple concept stocks.
On the other side of the ocean, cook can make more than 100000 Chinese assembly line workers climb up overnight with just one phone call, adding to Apple’s trillion dollar market value. And every time they assemble a new iPhone in Foxconn’s factory, the data on cook’s computer at Apple’s headquarters in Cupertino will be refreshed again.
Behind this is not only a power game penetrating the industrial chain, but also a dangerous division of labor related to national competitiveness. The core question is: how does the US manufacturing capacity control every link on the other side of the ocean?
A gift from my father
A well-known secret in the industry is that most mobile phone manufacturers are honored as “father” to suppliers, but apple is more like “father” to supply chain enterprises.
For example, if you look at Apple’s research report, you will find that Apple has spent 10 billion US dollars in capital expenditure every year for more than ten years in a row, of which more than 75% is spent on the purchase of equipment and software . However, as early as the late 1990s, Apple had sold off almost all of its factories. So an enterprise with almost no factory, who will buy so many equipment for?
The answer is: supply chain enterprises.
In Foxconn’s apple production lines, 20% – 50% of the equipment is provided by apple. In some small apple factories, nearly 500 of every 1000 devices are borne by apple.
For example, in 2012, in order to push the all metal body, apple turned CNC into a hot potato in the mobile phone industry chain, and even monopolized all the high-end devices in the market for a period of time. And the price of these devices is as high as $1 million. After purchasing, Apple will distribute all the goods to the relevant suppliers .
Application of CNC machine tool in machining metal body
Of course, apple is not selfless. After the supplier has purchased the machines provided by apple, the production line will be assigned to Apple separately and cannot be used to produce the products of other manufacturers. This can ensure that even if peers want to “copy operations”, they can not find production capacity, so as to maintain the characteristic attraction of Apple hardware for a period of time.
Before the new products are put into production, Apple will send senior engineers to the foundry to help solve the problems. For example, a classic story circulating in the industry is:
In the warehouse of a southern factory of apple, rats often gnaw on the double-sided adhesive tape. After Apple headquarters knew about it, they sent someone directly from the United States to formulate a set of warehouse cat raising plan, including cat breed, age, quantity, procurement budget, procurement approach, work welfare, and even cat performance appraisal and cat mentality maintenance, so as to ensure that cats can work in accordance with discipline.
However, “loving father” will be meticulous, and “loving father” will be extremely rigorous.
For example, a machine tool supplier once sold melons in front of Apple engineers, boasting that the processing effect of her products could be as bright as a mirror. As a result, Apple engineers continuously asked: how to quantify the brightness like a mirror? Finally, the company spent more than 1 million yuan to purchase the white light interferometer of AMETEK from the United States, which answered the soul question .
In addition to teaching factory production, Apple has no mercy in throwing money at suppliers: in September 2019, cook announced that he would spend 250 million dollars from Apple’s “cash manufacturing fund” to reward Corning, which helped Apple develop gorilla glass. This is basically the same as half a quarter’s profit of Corning.
The deep binding with Apple has brought huge returns to the capital market for these enterprises: since 2019, the three leading A-share companies in apple industry chain: lucent precision, Geer acoustics and Lansi technology have increased by an average of five times, while the market has increased by less than 40% in the same period. So some people joked: only the upstream of apple can be called the industrial chain, and the upstream of domestic machine can only be called the concept stock.
But for those companies who want to enter Apple’s industrial chain, they will eventually find that Apple’s gift is not only the honey they have grown ten times in ten years, but also the noose they can’t escape from Apple’s palm. The root of the noose is in an office in California on the other side of the ocean.
In the apple industry chain, there are 1142 suppliers from 49 countries and regions, more than 2 million workers working in three shifts, more than 500 Apple stores and thousands of channels all over the world operating continuously, selling 20000 Apple mobile phones per hour. They have created the largest listed company in human history, and apple, the sun never sets empire in the new era.
The capital of this huge empire is Apple’s space ship, which stands in Cupertino, California. This is the largest single office building in the world, bringing together 12000 elites Apple has recruited from all over the world. It covers more than the Pentagon of the U.S. Department of defense, and also commands all the legions fighting for apple around the world just like the Department of defense.
Apple headquarters in the evening
The heart of the empire is an office with posters of a Charity Foundation founded by Bono, U2’s lead singer, and an iMac. Every morning, when cook contemplates the changing numbers on this iMac, he looks like an emperor overlooking his country.
Apple, on the other hand, monitors every move of the imperial princes through two systems installed in the supply chain to allocate resources, reserve profits and plan production capacity for them.
The first is a map of the world, an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system invested heavily by apple.
In this system, Apple’s data from parts suppliers to assembly plants, and finally to channels are all connected. Cook’s computer can show the operation of Apple’s global suppliers on the same day: from the output of each component, to the start-up of each production line, and even to the yield of each factory .
Every time hundreds of thousands of Foxconn assembly line women assemble an iPhone, an updated jump number will appear in Cook’s computer on the other side of the ocean.
Cook and Foxconn women workers, 2014
Another case is that, as a heavyweight supplier of acoustic devices for apple, Ruisheng’s apple production line, control software, computers and ERP systems all come from apple. The person in charge of the relevant production line often receives Apple’s remote e-mail to point out the problems in a certain production line. The key point is that after pointing out the problem, the relevant person in charge can go to the scene to check only after Apple has opened the authority .
In other words, in this production line, in addition to the factory, workers, and some equipment are owned by Ruisheng, the rest are controlled by Apple .
Of course, there is no invisible hand to support an empire’s control over military regions. The second set of imperial system is the imperial envoy system which is composed of people and covers the whole territory of the Empire. At its peak, apple invested more than 2000 “Imperial Envoys” in Foxconn alone.
In this system, there are EPM (Project Manager), GSM (Global Supply Chain Manager) and SQE (Supplier Quality Engineer) roles. Some are responsible for providing technical support; some are responsible for communication and cooperation to help Shangda Tianting; some are responsible for supervising every move of the enterprise, up to the appointment and removal of personnel, down to the placement of a machine.
In August 2009, because the cost control of a small part failed to meet Apple’s requirements, the relevant person in charge of apple made a phone call to gou’s office to ask for accountability, so that Jiang Haoliang, the appointed successor of Gou, who was directly responsible for the matter, was demoted overnight as a special assistant of the chairman’s office for new products such as digital photo frames.
Through these two systems, Apple has formed a semi supervised and semi cooperative relationship with the supply chain, and all supply chains are transparent to apple
A senior optical executive in Taiwan clearly remembers the shock of his first meeting with apple GSM many years ago. On the plane to the United States, the executive and business backbones went through sand table deduction all the way, and finally worked out the cost price of $0.99 for a lens of the company.
But I didn’t expect that after the meeting, apple GSM directly produced a stack of evaluation reports, which clearly stated the yield rate of the company’s products, the injection molding status of lens products, the scale of production line, the import of materials and even the processing cost. Then it could not help but give a decision of 10% – 15% profit margin and a selling price of $1.10. Executives were stunned on the spot .
Under the two sets of surveillance, the cards and trousers of apple industry chain players are clearly displayed in Apple’s backstage, and they are welcomed by the other side besides Apple’s gifts.
The bitter fruit of the siege
The other side of Apple’s industrial chain is: trial and error for Apple’s research and development, and inventory pressure for apple. To put it simply, if you take the advantage of big brother, you should be able to stop the bleeding and fight for him and go to jail.
In 2013, in order to replace Corning’s glass screen with sapphire, an American company called GT advanced technologies, with the support of apple, spent a total of 900 million US dollars to build a sapphire factory in Arizona. According to the contract, Apple will pay $578 million in advance to geester advanced for production expansion and related equipment investment.
It was also because of Apple’s support that year’s extremely advanced, even if the financial losses, the stock price went out of a beautiful curve.
At the beginning of the similar warmth, it ushered in a different ending: just one year later, apple returned to Corning’s arms because of the high cost and fragility of sapphire, and grew “tearfully” for a whole year, once again setting a record high since its establishment. In order to pay off the debt, Ji te Xian, who has been expanding its production aggressively, has even come to the end of the story of selling furnaces to pay off the debt, laying off employees and going bankrupt.
Sapphire glass was eventually used only on Apple watches
Bypassing the R & D barrier, there is also an inventory gap: as we all know, apple, with its “zero inventory” supply chain management ability, has been ranked first among the top 25 global supply chain manufacturers launched by Gartner for seven consecutive years. Later, it even forced Gartner to launch the title of “supply chain master” in addition to its normal ranking in 2015, and apple once again won the title of “supply chain master” for five years.
However, behind Apple’s “zero inventory”, it is a tear in the supply chain. Over the past decade, Apple’s average inventory is often less than 2% of its revenue, but the inventory of Apple’s suppliers is ten times as much as Apple’s. The average inventory of the Three Musketeers in the mainland’s fruit chain before the peak season is more than a quarter of its revenue.
Even if it is as strong as Foxconn, it still has no power to fight back in the face of Apple’s “throwing pot”.
Apple’s iPhone in 2018 The sales of X and XR series were not as expected, and the whole industry chain suffered a big drop in 2018. The share price of Foxconn parent company Hon Hai Precision also dropped from 118 yuan at the beginning of the year to 70 yuan at the end of the year. However, 12 of the 60 production lines originally prepared for apple were directly abandoned. Apple also directly put forward the demand to cut orders, threatening that if Foxconn bargained, it would give orders to competitors.
To put it bluntly, this financial state of high cost investment in the early stage and high inventory in the later stage is like walking on a steel wire: the financial security of the enterprise is firmly bound with Apple’s order quantity. When the order is good, follow apple to eat meat and drink soup. When the order is bad, hold the gun for apple.
But the supply chain has paid so much, but it can’t get Apple’s real trust. Apple’s attitude towards the supply chain is still a cold monarchy: using No. 2 to play No. 1, and No. 3 to balance No. 2.
One of the most famous stories about Apple’s supply chain is that in 2007, when Steve Jobs released his first generation iPhone with no physical keyboard and no stylus, he made a passionate speech that “it will change everything.” as soon as the camera swept by, two middle-aged Chinese men were crying excitedly. These two are Jiang Chaorui and sun Daming, the boss of Taiwan touch screen manufacturer TPK.
For this apple screen, TPK has burned up NT $1.2 billion earned by OEM in six years, including a full two-year joint R & D cycle with apple alone. Under Apple’s almost abnormal harsh requirements, TPK’s chief technologist was tortured to nine times complaining to the boss that he wanted to give up. During the climbing stage of the production line, he held a meeting with apple every day until 1:00 a.m., and then continued to hold a meeting with his supervisor until 4:30 a.m. .
Spread in the industry: an apple screen, tens of thousands of young liver.
It’s a pity that the tears of TPK’s excitement are still around the corner of its mouth, and Apple’s split is coming: in 2010, apple forced TPK to license its technology patents to the outside world on the basis of supply chain security. Within a year, there were no less than five competitors in mainland China alone.
So tpks don’t want to fight? Of course. But for suppliers whose orders are in the hands of others and whose core technologies are also in the hands of others, resistance is a very difficult thing.
Apple’s tricks are universal, but a special phenomenon is that the injured characters are much more prevalent in Chinese mainland.
In 2017, Lucent competed for the acoustic devices and touch motor business of Ruisheng technology, which made Ruisheng’s gross profit rate stable for many years to 37% of the next year. Two years later, the wind and water changed in turn. Lucent’s airpods orders were shared by goer, and the new product airpods Max was handed over to goer’s exclusive OEM, which made goer’s share price rise nearly five times in two years.
However, long before Goethe took over the air pods, Lansi technology, whose main business is glass cover in 2018, entered Goethe’s sphere of influence by investing in horn acoustics
Several of Apple’s mainland supply chain operators not only accept Apple’s surveillance and carry the pot for apple, but also enjoy playing in the game of Apple’s checks and balances. They are constantly killing, but their profit margins are often getting lower and lower. In contrast, Apple’s several checks and balances on Qualcomm, Samsung, and TSMC all ended up angry.
Behind this is the difference of Apple’s industrial chain.
A mobile phone can be divided into five parts: core chips, high-value components, precision parts, modules and assembly. Combining the enterprises in these five links with their geographical distribution, we can see another phenomenon. At the beginning of the birth of the industrial chain, apple drew a clear track distribution on a global scale
The United States firmly controls the most valuable mobile phone chip, which is the traditional advantage industry of the United States: apple develops its own processor, baseband chip is provided by Qualcomm, Wi Fi chip is provided by Broadcom, and RF chip is provided by Cisco and qorvo. These are basically domestic enterprises in the United States.
The next level is the high-value dazongyuan device of storage and panel lamp, but the price fluctuates violently. Under the leadership of the United States, it was transferred from Japan to South Korea. After Apple entered the market, it further stabilized the industrial structure: storage is the world of Samsung and SK Hynix; panels are jointly supplied by Samsung and LG, and Chinese enterprises have only gradually started to cut in in in recent years.
After being suppressed by the United States in the 1980s, Japan took the initiative to defend the production of precision components in a small but stable market, such as MLCC of Murata and solar power, electronic compass of AKM, and battery of TDK.
In this year’s dismantling of the iPhone 12 pro, these three companies account for 62% of the value of components, and they are also the most stable track.
At the bottom are companies from the mainland and Taiwan.
Comparatively speaking, the system assembly controlled by Taiwan manufacturers in China has low profit, large volume and stable demand. Foxconn, Heshuo and Weichuang have basically become Apple’s imperial agent and purchasing manager. On the other hand, the mainland’s industry chain companies are concentrated in two major tracks, namely, modules and precision parts.
Module can be understood as assembling dozens of small parts into a small plug and play module. The core of this module is often chips from Europe, America, Japan and South Korea. Loosely speaking, it can be understood as LEGO in the electronic industry chain. The representative enterprises on this line include oufeiguang, which is used as camera and fingerprint identification module, Jinlong Electromechanical, which is used as motor module, xinwanda, which is used as battery module, and Golmud acoustics, which is used as micro microphone.
Precision parts are another front, mainly including various appearance parts, structural parts and functional parts that constitute the fuselage and fuselage appearance. To be specific, it is the parts that the bosses started with several CNC machines, organized workers for apple, and were able to set up production lines: glass cover plate of lens technology, casing of Changying precision, metal frame of Corson technology, and connector of Lixun precision.
In short, the two tracks in mainland China are Apple’s “chip packing shop” and “hardware processing shop”.
But the business of these two stores is not very stable. Chip packaging store module needless to say, the threshold is low, the profit is lower, at any time there is the risk of being hit at the door by half killed opponents. After all, the threshold for packing small parts is not high. There will always be competitors who are more diligent. And then give Apple the opportunity to use No. 2 to play No. 1, No. 3 to balance No. 2, and constantly lower the gross profit.
In contrast, precision parts are less likely to be hit at the door, but they are faced with the embarrassment of kicking out the entire technical route in Apple’s continuous upgrading and revision
In terms of appearance parts of precision parts alone, from the plastic of iPhone 3G, to the double glass of iPhone 4, to the all metal body of iPhone 5, to the return of iPhone x to the glass body. It can be said that every time the Apple fans exclaim at the appearance change brought by apple, it often means that one precision processing enterprise is out and another rises.
For example, in 2017, apple changed the metal fuselage into glass fuselage, and Lansi technology, which is mainly engaged in glass cover plate, completed the bottom rebound of the stock price that year; while the stock price of Changying precision, which supplies metal casing, fell sharply that year. Although Changying precision acquired all the way from ceramic materials to automobile parts as early as a year ago, it did not prevent the company’s profit from falling to 1 / 20 a year later.
In August of this year, Lansi technology, which was troubled by the glass metal fuselage cycle in Apple’s repeated horizontal jumps, also launched the acquisition of Taizhou factory, a supplier of Apple’s metal fuselage shell Kecheng technology, to complete the bets on both sides of the metal glass.
Lansi’s idea is very simple. Since there is a risk in one path, we should make the scale bigger and the categories bigger and bigger, and step on more paths.
But can expansion really cure all diseases?
This is the business map of several representative apple industry chain enterprises. Vertically, each enterprise is an all-round player blooming in all directions, thus avoiding the nightmare of single track being eliminated;
But from a horizontal perspective, there are more such as antennas and acoustics, and less such as radio frequency. On almost every track of Apple’s industrial chain, there are at least two or three enterprises competing .
In other words, in the limited market, the more chips each supply chain enterprise has, the more chips Apple will use No. 2 to suppress No. 1 and No. 3 to threaten No. 2, which will depress the profits of the whole industry. Sooner or later, this breakthrough will turn into an internal duel.
It’s hard to get into Apple’s industrial chain, and it’s even harder to get out of Apple’s fatalistic arrangement.
To sum up, Apple’s approach is simple
The gift of my father: to equipment, software, capital and technical support, to lead the supply chain enterprises to become bigger and stronger, and finally make the supply chain inseparable from itself;
Empire’s monitoring: the software has monitoring function; the technical support goes deep into the enterprise operation and secrets, so that the last card of the supply chain enterprise can not be hidden through close cooperation;
The bitter fruit of the siege: using orders to turn supply chain enterprises into Apple’s inventory and innovative risk shifter; stirring up supply chain competition and lowering their gross profit; and;
Fatalistic struggle: at the beginning of the division of the track, we left the most competitive modules and precision parts with the lowest threshold to China, and used demographic dividend to intensify the infidelity.
The essence of this kind of Apple trap is to attract the best enterprises in China with one twentieth of their profits, let them organize the best engineers and young labor force to serve it, monitor them with top software, and stare at their cards with the royal guards system which goes deep into all aspects of enterprise production management, and then put risks and internal fights on them.
Finally, the most precious bonus for workers and engineers before China’s aging will be transformed into a continuous stream of dividends for Wall Street shareholders.
Now, Tesla, which followed apple, is also continuing to write Apple’s model. It’s a pity that we are still complacent about Tesla’s efficiency in China and Tesla’s commitment of 100% domestic production, but we forget that we are going from one apple trap to another. If we want to get out of the trap, we must first face up to the manufacturing relations between China and the United States.
In Chinese we media, the decline of American manufacturing industry is basically certain: for example, Apple’s mobile phone is made in China, Tesla’s automobile is made in China, General Motors falls to the altar, Boeing is doomed, the United States has no production capacity, and the only manufacturing industry is printing money. So that some people will ask: the United States has no manufacturing capacity, and when will it collapse?
In terms of data, this view is not without examples. Statistics Department of the United Nations shows that in 2018, China accounted for 28% of global manufacturing output, 10 percentage points ahead of the United States.
As early as 2010, the scale of manufacturing industry in the United States has been surpassed by China. From 2000 to 2010, about 60000 factories in the United States closed down, and the number of employees in the manufacturing industry decreased from 17.3 million to 11.5 million, a sharp drop of 35%. In the next ten years, the number of employees in the manufacturing industry was fixed at 12 million, and most of the middle and low-end manufacturing jobs had been permanently lost in the United States.
But is American manufacturing really declining?
In recent years, the proportion of manufacturing output value in the total GDP of the United States has been stable at around 11%, but the proportion of manufacturing enterprises in the R & D investment of domestic enterprises in the United States is as high as 68%. If it is really weakening, why is the R & D cost of manufacturing rising?
Perhaps, what is closer to the truth is that manufacturing jobs in the United States have indeed been lost, but an organizational network with headquarters in the United States and production bases all over the world is expanding.
Therefore, American manufacturing enterprises at the core of this network have increased R & D expenditure instead. This strength is also reflected in the capital market: the market value of American manufacturing industry accounts for half of the global manufacturing market value. After all, overseas earnings will still be reflected in domestic stocks. The industrial chain colonization in the new era is going on round by round.
It’s no wonder that, compared with the boiling on the Internet, the decision-makers are extremely calm. In September 2020, Nian Yong, former director of the industry department of the national development and Reform Commission, said at a summit: the United States is actually a big manufacturing country, and the United States has not given up manufacturing. If the part of the U.S. service industry serving the manufacturing industry is merged with the manufacturing industry, the total economic output generated by the manufacturing industry in the United States will exceed 100% Over 60%.
Similarly, at the end of 2020, the Chinese Academy of Engineering published a report “2020 China manufacturing power development index report”, which used 18 indicators such as manufacturing output value, labor productivity and R & D intensity to score the world’s manufacturing powers. The result shows that the United States is far ahead of the three manufacturing powers with 169 points: Germany (126), Japan (117) and China (111).
If you look at the score carefully, you can see the reason at a glance. In addition to the manufacturing scale indicators, China is significantly ahead of the United States. In the fields of manufacturing brand, equipment manufacturing and R & D investment intensity, the score gap has narrowed by only 3 points in the past seven years, and the gap with the United States will even expand slightly in 2019.
This is obviously the result of the layout of multinational giants such as Tesla and apple: in California, they study materials, equipment and systems; in China, they ship processing equipment, install management software, and then call Chinese suppliers to demand batch delivery day and night.
Large scale manufacturing capacity is a card gained through hard work in the past few decades, but it is by no means the end of made in China. If we are complacent about this and think that Tesla’s localization will be all right, then it will be just like Apple’s 90% production in China. In the end, it will only become a legendary business empire and a number of supply chain manufacturers competing around it.
Don’t let Apple’s trap become Tesla’s illusion. Half of those who travel a hundred miles are 90. China’s manufacturing industry still has the most difficult way to go.
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(statement: This article only represents the author’s point of view, not Sina’s position.)