In 2020, Weilai will become the most “hot” brand among the new domestic car making forces. Tuyuan: Oriental IC
Welcome to the wechat subscription number of “chuangshiji”: sinachungshiji
By Li Danqi
Source: it times (ID: vittimes)
In 30 seconds, Weilai’s market value has crossed the $100 billion mark, and the market value of BMW + Ferrari can’t match it. Why is it compared with BBA? When Weilai realized that its sales could not be compared with Tesla, it switched the track. Compared with luxury cars, what is the strength of Weilai? If you know how to use the big guys in the Internet circle for marketing, Weilai can turn every user into a sales person. NiO day is like a luxury car club, which uses the pink circle to build a circle… When everyone pays attention to Weilai’s marketing tips, we should go to see how much moisture there is in Weilai’s ppt hard core technology.
Weilai is on the rise.
On January 9, at NiO day2020, Li Bin, founder, chairman and CEO of Weilai, released the new car et7. On the evening of January 11, the U.S. stock market opened with a sharp rise, with a market value of more than $100 billion, exceeding the market value of BMW and Ferrari, although the sales volume may only be 2% of BMW’s.
“Trust brother bin.” On the day of NiO day, Zhang Jun (pseudonym), the owner of ES 8, placed a deposit of 5000 yuan to book the et7 which will go offline one year later.
“Who is the supplier of Weilai battery?” Xiaoyan, a shareholder who was severely hit by the lithium battery sector, went through all the press conferences, but did not find the answer. On January 11, Tianci materials, Enjie, Yahua group, Sinoma technology, putailai and other popular stocks fell to their limit. Before that, they had just reached a historical high. The semi solid state battery of Weilai et7 is regarded as a revolution of lithium battery.
Today, nearly a week after the press conference, Weilai still dominates the list. Li Bin, 150 kwh battery pack, 1000 km endurance and Weilai’s self driving nad are all hot topics.
Baidu and apple are also high-profile “starters” this week. Although the details have not been disclosed, Li Bin has clearly regarded apple as a potential rival. Although he does not regard Tesla as the same opponent, model y, which costs more than 300000 yuan, continues to follow the “true fragrance law” this week, and its leader, musk, has become the richest man in the world.
Weilai’s past is strikingly similar to Tesla’s in the first half of the journey. Several times it was on the verge of extinction, but it came back to life again. Li Bin said, “it was moved from ICU to ordinary ward”. So, will Weilai’s future still be like Tesla’s in the second half of the journey, pulling out the steep rising curve of “rocket” in general?
Tesla and Weilai share price rise comparison, tuyuan: Yahoo Finance
Before getting the answer to this question, Wei Lai first answers the following three questions.
Who is the battery supplier of et7?
Weilai et7 battery life, source: Weilai official website
Who will become the battery supplier of Weilai automobile?
When this question was raised at the press conference of Weilai automobile, Li Bin, founder and CEO of Weilai automobile, said that the supplier of solid-state batteries was inconvenient to disclose: “Weilai automobile has a very close cooperative relationship with the supplier of solid-state batteries, and is definitely the most leading company in the industry.”
That night, the problem of battery suppliers caused speculation in the industry. Many people focus their attention on the list of suppliers of solid-state batteries that have been widely spread before. “It times” reporter found that Ningde times, Qingtao energy, Ganfeng lithium are on the list.
Take Ganfeng lithium industry as an example. As early as 2017, the company introduced Xu Xiaoxiong’s team from Ningbo Institute of materials, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and officially entered the solid-state battery sector. In 2018, the company made a new breakthrough in the research and development of solid-state battery, and officially launched the construction project of 200 million wh solid-state lithium battery pilot production line in August of the same year.
Ganfeng lithium solid state lithium battery
Qingtao new energy has built the first solid-state lithium battery production line in China in November 2018, and has produced the first batch of solid-state battery products.
However, Qingtao energy may be out ahead of schedule. On January 10, industry insiders revealed that Li Zheng, general manager of Qingtao energy, said in a message in wechat circle of friends recently that “Qingtao has no such plan”, which seems to indicate that there is no cooperation plan with Weilai.
Later, there was news that Ningde times might be the supplier of solid-state batteries for Weilai automobile.
As early as March 2019, Ningde Times announced that its R & D team had conquered key core technologies such as high nickel ternary materials and silicon carbon anode materials, and took the lead in developing battery samples with an energy density of 304wh / kg.
In 2019, Ningde times developed a specific energy 304wh / kg battery sample, source: pushev
In addition, in May 2020, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde times, revealed that Ningde times is continuously investing in cutting-edge research and product development on solid-state battery and other technologies.
Ningde times did not respond positively to the news of “becoming a solid-state battery supplier of Weilai.” the high-intensity R & D investment, technical reserve and mass production manufacturing capacity of Ningde times can support the continuous leading of our product competitiveness. “.
On January 13, it was also rumored that the solid-state battery supplier on the et7, the first car of Weilai, was Beijing Weilan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.
Data show that Beijing Weilan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is a national high-tech enterprise focusing on the research and development and production of mixed solid-liquid electrolyte lithium-ion batteries and all solid-state lithium batteries, with a series of core patents and technologies. It is the only industrialization platform for solid-state battery technology of Clean Energy Laboratory of Institute of physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Photo source: tianyancha
At present, Beijing Weilan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. has not responded.
However, after the press conference, there was another controversy about whether et7 battery is a real solid-state battery, until Zeng Shizhe, assistant vice president of Weilai automotive battery system, confirmed in an interview with other media that the battery is actually a semi-solid battery, and electrolyte and separator still need to be used, which is a transitional scheme before the arrival of all solid-state battery.
If the semi-solid battery is taken as the standard, then several companies denied it before seem to have some possibility. After all, compared with the solid-state batteries that can really break the technical threshold in 2025-2030, semi-solid batteries are expected to be implemented in two to three years.
How far is a real solid state battery?
The reason why Weilai new car attracts the attention of capital market is that solid-state battery is the safest compared with traditional lithium battery. Solid state battery has the characteristics of nonflammability, high temperature resistance, no corrosion and no volatilization.
In addition, et7 is equipped with 150 degree semi-solid battery pack, which causes the market’s concern about the impact of solid-state battery on the existing lithium battery technology system.
A person in the industry told the IT times that in a strict sense, the solid-state battery mentioned at the Weilai press conference is only a relatively primary semi-solid battery. At present, the commercialization of all solid-state battery is still early, and the problems of technology, process and cost have not been solved.
From the technical point of view, the cycle life, fast charging performance and interface resistance of all solid-state batteries are not up to standard at present; the processing technology is difficult and needs to isolate water and oxygen, and the processing technology and large-scale mass production technology have not yet been solved.
In terms of cost structure, the overall cost of solid-state battery is mainly composed of battery material cost and battery production cost, of which material cost accounts for 80% or more.
Solid state battery cost, tuyuan: prospective industry research institute
According to the Research Report of Zhongtai securities, the commercialization of all solid state batteries is still early, and the whole world is still in the trial production stage.
Previously, the three core technologies of solid-state batteries mentioned in Weilai’s press conference were “in situ solidified solid-liquid electrolyte”, “inorganic pre lithium silicon carbon anode” and “nano coated ultra-high nickel cathode”.
In this regard, an industry analysis said: “in essence, there is no disruptive technology, that is, thermosetting battery. It is not a real sense of solid-state battery, but a new term.”
However, because the semi-solid battery with 150 degree battery pack follows the existing material system and increases the consumption of lithium and carbon nanotubes, it can solve the technical problems of rapid charging and expansion of the battery.
A year later, can et7 pry BBA?
Source: Oriental IC
For a long time, the new domestic car making forces represented by Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal have been the focus of public attention. After the stock market downturn to the dark moment, the new force of car building has become the hot object of capital. In 2020, the “big three”, the new force of car manufacturing, will hand in a brilliant report card.
According to the data, in 2020, Weilai, ideal and Xiaopeng delivered 43728, 32624 and 27041 vehicles respectively, and the sales volume of Weilai increased by 112.6% year on year.
However, there is still a big gap between this data and Tesla. Tesla Model 3 made in China sold 137459 vehicles in the whole year.
Source: the first electric network
After new year’s day, the price of Tesla’s new model y dropped precipitously, driving a wave of car buying boom. “It times” reporter from the industry learned that with the increase of domestic Tesla production capacity, the subsequent domestic Tesla is likely to reduce prices.
Weilai intelligent electric flagship car et7 is expected to be delivered in the first quarter of 2022, but there are domestic Tesla with a sharp price reduction before, and domestic new energy vehicles competing for the market. Weilai’s competitors are BBA (BMW, Mercedes Benz, Audi) fuel vehicles. A year later, can et7 win the market?
It is understood that at present, et7 has three kinds of batteries to choose from: the starting price of 70kwh battery (500km range +) before subsidy is 448000 yuan; the starting price of 100kwh battery (700km range +) before subsidy is 506000 yuan; the starting price of 100kwh first edition before subsidy is 526000 yuan.
The main competitors of Weilai et7 are BBA cars. Zhongtai securities made a comparison between six BBA fuel vehicles with a price of 290000-650000 yuan and Weilai et7, and found that the average price of BBA fuel vehicles was 442800 yuan, slightly lower than that of Weilai et7.
Weilai et7 and BBA fuel vehicle comparison, source: Zhongtai securities
Zhongtai Securities believes that the market space of Weilai et7 is expected to be more than 100000 vehicles. “From the et7 model design, vehicle configuration, interior materials and other aspects, we can see that Weilai pays attention to luxury and sportiness.
From the pricing point of view, even if we choose the baas scheme (the minimum is 378000 yuan), there is no overlap with the electric cars in the current market, and there will be no direct competition. We believe that et7 will be another powerful attack on traditional luxury brands launched by Weilai, and the main goal is to separate more consumer groups from BBA’s car market. ”
It should be noted that there is not only one player on the solid-state battery track. According to the data of Industrial Securities Institute of economics and finance, the all solid state batteries developed by Hyundai, BMW, Ford and solid power will be mass produced in 2025.
The solid-state batteries developed by BAIC, SAIC, GAC, Hezhong automobile and Qingtao energy will be put into mass production from 2022 to 2025, and other automobile companies such as Honda, Nissan, FAW, Tianji, Aichi, Renault and Mitsubishi will also have layout on the solid-state battery track.
(statement: This article only represents the author’s point of view, not Sina’s position.)