The annual growth rate of the original title is over 10%! Can the new energy vehicle market continue its “firepower”?
Every reporter Li Shuo and Duan siyao
Strong rebound of the new energy vehicle market delivered a brilliant year-end answer.
On January 13, 2021, the data released by China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as CAAC) shows that in December 2020, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will be about 248000, with a year-on-year growth of 49.5%; from January to December 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will be 1.366 million and 1.367 million, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% and 10.9%, respectively, and the growth rate will beat the market.
The popularity of new energy vehicles continues. Since the beginning of 2021, the sharp price reduction of domestic Tesla Model y and the appearance of Weilai flagship et7 have made new energy vehicles “hot” again.
Tabulated by Li Shuo
Not only that, Baidu recently announced the formal establishment of a smart car company to enter the automotive industry as a vehicle manufacturer, while Apple Corp is also negotiating with the modern motor vehicle on the motorized autopilot.
New players are constantly entering. What’s the follow-up trend of the new energy vehicle market in 2021? Can the enthusiasm of the capital market for new energy vehicles continue?
New energy passenger cars increased by 58.1% year on year in a single month, outperforming the market by nearly 17 percentage points in the whole year
From the perspective of terminal market, new energy vehicles will be in high demand by the end of 2020.
According to the passenger Federation data, in December 2020, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger cars reached 210000, with a year-on-year growth of 53.6% and a month on month growth of 15.6%; the retail sales volume reached 206000, with a year-on-year growth of 58.1% and a month on month growth of 20.8%.
Photo source: Travel Association
“In 2020, the overall development of new energy vehicle market will show a trend of first restraining and then rising, and the first quarter will be affected by the epidemic, with a significant year-on-year decline. The second quarter began to recover, and the market rebounded significantly in the third and fourth quarters, showing a strong growth characteristic of tenacious reversal in the second half of the year. Overall, the growth rate was – 43% in the first half and 72% in the second half. ” Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information association, said.
According to Wang Binggang, head of the expert group of the national new energy vehicle innovation project, the reason why the new energy vehicle market can recover rapidly under the impact of the epidemic is the result of the long-term efforts of the whole industry. “In the second half of 2020, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will increase significantly, mainly due to the long-term support of national policies, the improvement of relevant infrastructure, the gradual completion of the industrial chain, the improvement of consumer acceptance and other factors.” Wang Binggang said.
It is worth noting that in December 2020, the high and low ends of electric vehicles are still growing strongly, of which the sales volume of A00 class vehicles is about 57000, accounting for 32% of the market share of pure electric vehicles; the sales volume of a class electric vehicles accounts for 28% of the market share of pure electric vehicles, with a steady growth at the end of the year; the sales volume of B class electric vehicles is 47000, with a month on month growth of 18%, accounting for 23% of the market share of pure electric vehicles, with the fastest growth.
Photo by Li Shuo
As far as automobile enterprises are concerned, in December 2020, the new energy passenger car market will be diversified and the enterprises with sales volume exceeding 10000 vehicles include SAIC GM Wuling (41000 vehicles), BYD (28000 vehicles), Tesla China (23800 vehicles), SAIC passenger car (18200 vehicles) and Great Wall Motor (10700 vehicles).
At the same time, the performance of the new car building forces is also remarkable. In December 2020, Xiaopeng automobile delivered 2588 new cars, with a year-on-year increase of 112%; ideal automobile delivered 6162 new cars in December 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 529.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 33000; Weilai automobile delivered 7007 single cars in December 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 121%.
It is not only the new power of car manufacturing, but also the performance of mainstream car companies in the new energy vehicle market. According to the comprehensive annual data, BYD’s new energy vehicle sales in 2020 are 179000, accounting for 43% of the total brand sales; SAIC GM Wuling’s annual sales of small new energy vehicles are 174000, with a year-on-year growth of 190%, maintaining a month on month growth for 10 consecutive months; Tesla’s sales in China in 2020 are 143800, including domestic model 3, accounting for 94% of its global sales, while the Chinese market accounts for 29.6% of its global sales.
The continuous growth of new energy vehicle sales is also transmitted to the power battery production and loading volume. In November 2020, China’s power battery output totaled 12.7gwh, with a year-on-year growth of 40.7% and a month on month growth of 29.1%. In terms of loading capacity, in November 2020, the loading capacity of power batteries in China was 10.6gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 68.8% and a month on month increase of 80.9%.
Tabulated by Li Shuo
In the first 11 months of 2020, the cumulative loading capacity of power batteries in China is 50.7gwh, and the year-on-year decrease rate is further narrowed to 3.5%. Among them, the cumulative loading capacity of ternary battery was 32.9gwh, a year-on-year decrease of 8%; the cumulative installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery was 17.5gwh, a year-on-year increase of 13%, which exceeded the level of the same period in 2019.
According to park Zhenghao, an analyst of yiou, from the perspective of market, the power battery loading volume in 2020 is close to that in 2019; from the perspective of industry, the Matthew effect of China’s power battery industry is prominent, and the space left by the market for new entrants is becoming increasingly narrow; from the perspective of enterprise, the horizontal and vertical layout of power battery enterprises is obvious, and the internal sales end of enterprises maintains internal and external expansion, which is of great significance to enterprises In addition, the R & D end forms an innovation system composed of material innovation, product innovation and production process innovation.
Tabulated by Li Shuo
Guoyuan international research report believes that due to the high resources and technical barriers of the power battery industry, it is difficult for the industry to undergo major technological changes in the short term, and the first echelon pattern will remain stable. It is estimated that the global power battery demand is expected to reach 635gwh in 2025 and 1960gwh in 2030. From the perspective of scale, the future growth of power battery demand is highly certain, and the prosperity will maintain the expansion range for a long time.
Capital Carnival in upstream and downstream industry chain
In the past year, Ningde times (300750. SZ) and Tesla (tsla), the two “close partners”, were quite attractive in the “competition” in the capital market.
Image source: visual China
On December 31, 2020 EST, Tesla’s closing market value stood at a high of US $658.582 billion. Looking at domestic auto stocks, Ningde era can match Tesla’s market value. As of the last trading day in 2020, Ningde era’s closing market value is 817.735 billion yuan.
As two major auto giants in A-share and US stock markets, Ningde times and Tesla led the rise again in stock price and market value growth in December 2020. Among them, the market value of Ningde times increased by 252.254 billion yuan, with a share price increase of 44.61%; the market value of Tesla increased by 130.89 billion US dollars, with a share price increase of 24.33%.
Behind the “contest” between Ningde era and Tesla is the “Duel” between new energy vehicle enterprises and new energy industry chain.
In terms of vehicle enterprises, in December 2020, in the A-share market, Great Wall Motor (601633. SH) led the rise, and its market value also increased by 91.026 billion yuan; followed by JAC motor (600418. SH), although its share price rose second, its market value only increased by 4.77 billion yuan; the share price of BYD (002594. SZ) increased by 12.87%, and its market value increased by 60.425 billion yuan.
In contrast, the stock prices and market value of Chang’an Automobile (000625. SZ), SAIC Group (600104. SH) and GAC group (601238. SH) all fell. Among them, the stock price of Chang’an Automobile fell the most, with the market value shrinking by 18.127 billion yuan.
Tabulated by Duan siyao
In the Hong Kong stock market, in addition to the slight decrease of 1.03% in the share price of BAIC motor (01958. HK) and the decrease of HK $240 million in the market value on a year-on-year basis, the share prices of Geely motor (00175. HK) and Hengda motor (00708. HK) both increased by more than 20%, with the market value increasing by HK $48.594 billion and HK $55.106 billion respectively.
Tabulated by Duan siyao
According to Soochow Securities Research Report, a new round of independent rise will become the core main line of vehicle stocks in the next three years. At the same time, electric intelligent vehicles will drive their own brands to further cross the price band of 200000 yuan and further increase their market share.
In the last month of 2020, the stock price of the “three brothers” in the U.S. stock market experienced a rare decline. However, for the whole year, Weilai automobile still recorded a share price increase of 1112.5%, while the share prices of xpev and Li increased by 85.41% and 86% respectively.
Tabulated by Duan siyao
Compared with vehicle enterprises, individual stocks in the new energy automobile industry chain will make a lot of money in December 2020. In addition to Ningde era, power battery related stocks are also bullish. The market value of Yiwei lithium energy (300014.sz) and Ganfeng lithium industry (002460.sz) has increased by more than 30 billion yuan, and the value of other stock markets has also increased by nearly 10 billion yuan.
Tabulated by Duan siyao
Guotai Junan Securities predicted in the research report that in 2021, the global sales of new energy vehicles will rise to more than 4.2 million, and the power battery industry will maintain a high growth rate. At the same time, driven by the demand for electric vehicles, the demand for lithium carbonate may reach 417000 tons in 2021, an increase of 28%. In the future, domestic lithium salt enterprises will be the world’s first-line leaders, with great room for growth.
Compared with the power battery stocks, in December 2020, the charging pile stocks were not uniformly bullish. The stock price of Xuji Electric (000400. SZ) even fell by 13.72%, and the market value also fell by 2.339 billion yuan.
According to Shengang Securities Research Report, energy saving, new energy and intelligent Internet connection, as well as domestic substitution opportunities brought by “domestic big cycle” will become the core targets of high-quality track in the automotive sector.
Policy adds another “fire”
On the first day of 2021, Tesla announced that the starting price of the domestic model y long-range version was 339900 yuan, which was 148100 yuan lower than the previous price, and the price of its performance high-performance version was 165100 yuan lower.
The price reduction of model y has stirred up the domestic new energy vehicle market. Some people think that the price range of domestic model y after the price reduction has overlapped with the main models of domestic new car making enterprises, which is bound to launch a fierce competition with new car making enterprises.
Everbright Securities believes in the research report that the short-term impact of model y on the traditional automobile industry chain is limited. It is estimated that from 2020 to 2022, the demand for parts of model 3 and model y will respectively account for 0.6%, 1.5% and 2% of the total domestic auto parts market. But the “catfish effect” of Tesla’s popular model will accelerate the process of electrification, lightweight and intellectualization of domestic automobile supply chain.
Photo source: Daily Economic News Photo by Zheng Derui
If it is said that the domestic version of Tesla Model y ignites the enthusiasm of the domestic new energy vehicle market, then a number of policies issued at the end of 2020 will add another “fire” to the new energy vehicle market at the macro level.
On December 30, 2020, the negotiation of China EU investment agreement will be completed. The EU will open the new energy market to Chinese enterprises to a limited extent. At the same time, China will expand the opening of some manufacturing industries such as automobiles in an orderly manner.
“The completion of the agreement negotiation is expected to promote the prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry in both directions.” Guotai Junan Securities said in the research report that the introduction of excellent overseas automobile enterprises will drive the upgrading of domestic new energy vehicle industry through technology spillover. Meanwhile, domestic automobile enterprises and upstream and downstream supporting industry companies will accelerate their entry into the European market, which will further consolidate the industry’s profitability.
Although the specific contents of the China EU investment agreement have not yet been announced, the market expectation of the new energy vehicle industry chain has been catalysed. In particular, it will further stimulate European car companies to seek investment targets in China’s power battery related industry chain.
At present, there are already European car companies taking the lead in the layout. For example, Volkswagen Group has become the largest shareholder of GuoXuan high tech, and Daimler’s stake in Funeng technology has laid the foundation for Funeng’s European production capacity layout. Meanwhile, honeycomb energy, a domestic power battery company, will spend 2 billion euro to build a large 24gwh power battery factory in Europe.
Photo source: photographing.com
In addition, in December 2020, the central economic work conference listed “carbon peaking and carbon neutralization” as one of the eight key tasks in 2021, emphasizing on accelerating the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure and energy structure. This means that China attaches great importance to global climate change and accelerating the realization of carbon emission reduction. During the “14th five year plan” period, China will further promote the energy revolution with clean energy as the core and accelerate the development of new energy industry.
In addition to the above two pieces of good news, on December 31, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the notice on further improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. In 2021, the subsidy standard for the purchase of new energy vehicles will decline by 20% on the basis of 2020. At the same time, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles that meet the requirements in the fields of urban public transport, road passenger transport, taxi (including online car Hailing), environmental sanitation, urban logistics and distribution will be reduced by 10% from 2020 in 2021.
Compared with the previous period, the subsidization rate is relatively small. The industry believes that this will not cause a big disturbance to the consumption of new energy vehicle market, or it will further improve the industry concentration and speed up the flow of market share into high-quality enterprises.
Photo source: photographing.com
Shanxi Securities Research Report believes that new energy vehicles have strong long-term certainty. With the promotion of relevant policies such as subsidy policy, double integral policy, online car Hailing to electricity transfer, and traffic and purchase restriction, the demand for new energy vehicles will be promoted from both the consumer side and the manufacturing side. At the same time, the improvement of vehicle intelligence and sharing will further expand the demand margin of new energy vehicles and make the industry gradually transition from policy driven to market driven.
1.5 million vehicles may be sold in 2021
In the face of multiple benefits from policy and market, the prospect of new energy vehicles in 2021 is still promising.
The Federation of passenger transport predicts that in 2021, the annual sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles may reach 1.5 million, with a year-on-year growth of 35.26%, and the market-oriented increment will become the main force. China Automobile Association has made a more bold forecast, and it is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will be 1.8 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 40%.
Photo source: photographing.com
Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and Secretary General of China electric vehicle 100 people’s Association, believes that the products, brands and market of new energy vehicles have made great progress at the present stage, but the competition will be more intense in 2021. Some products that lack competitiveness, brands that lack sustainable operation and production capacity that lack strength support are likely to accelerate their exit from the market or fall on the road of development in 2021.
As for the impact of the decline of subsidies, Cui Dongshu said that subsidies have changed from a crucial influencing factor to a supporting factor in the new energy vehicle market, and the market has shifted from subsidies to marketization. Subsidies are not the main factor for enterprises to develop new energy vehicles, but the driving force to stimulate the whole market demand and tap the blank market, which makes China’s new energy vehicle market obtain the opportunity of comprehensive development.
At the same time, a new round of automobile going to the countryside will be launched soon. On January 5, the Ministry of Commerce and other 12 departments jointly issued the “notice on measures to boost key consumption of bulk consumption and promote the release of rural consumption potential”, which proposed to encourage relevant cities to optimize purchase restriction measures and increase the number plate index; to carry out a new round of cars to the countryside and trade in old cars for new ones, and to encourage conditional areas to buy trucks of 3.5 tons or less and passenger cars of 1.6 liters or less for rural residents When using cars, residents will be subsidized to eliminate the national third or lower emission standard cars and purchase new cars.
Photo source: photographing.com
There is a view that automobile going to the countryside will further stimulate the growth of market demand for new energy vehicles in China. In the future, with the implementation of a series of stimulus policies, such as optimizing the purchase restriction, going to the countryside and exchanging the old for the new, China’s new energy vehicle market is expected to grow further in 2021 and beyond.
Under favorable policies, major auto companies are also stepping up the layout of new energy products. New products such as Audi e-tron, SAIC Volkswagen id.4x, FAW Volkswagen id.4 crozz, Mercedes Benz EQA / EQB, Nissan ariya, linker zero +, Hongqi e-qm5, BYD Qin plus DM-I will be launched in 2021.
“This year, high-end new energy vehicles will enter the stage of high increment and low cost, with a trend of sharp price reduction, and the squeezing effect on traditional fuel vehicles will gradually increase.” Cui Dongshu said.
Photo source: Daily Economic News
As for the follow-up trend of the new energy industry chain, Chen Xiaqiong, a researcher of China business fund, believes that new energy vehicles are in a high light moment. From the perspective of the sales end, the continuous upgrading of new products in China’s market in 2021, the innovation of traditional car companies, and the restart of electric public sector are expected to promote the arrival of the turning point of new energy vehicle sales. From the perspective of supply and demand side, the global electrification will resonate with the same frequency in 2021, and the demand for new energy vehicles will accelerate to release, which will bring a new round of growth opportunities for the industrial chain.
Liu Bin, manager of new Huaxin hybrid fund, believes that the support behind new energy vehicles is the great change of energy structure, which is the core direction of the whole technological development and progress in the next decade and the biggest opportunity. “In 2021, the global sales growth of new energy vehicles is expected to be 40%, while the Chinese market is expected to maintain the sales level of 2-2.3 million vehicles. The growth rate of automobile enterprises and industrial chain will only be higher, and most leading enterprises will exceed the overall growth rate of the industry. It is quite certain that the new energy vehicle industry will have a comprehensive high growth this year. ” Liu Bin said.
Reporter’s note: the critical point of new energy vehicle marketization has come
In early 2020, novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreaks and new energy vehicle plates were also affected. Fortunately, relevant departments have successively issued policies including extending subsidies for new energy vehicles and exempting new energy vehicles from purchasing. Finally, in 2020, the cumulative retail volume of domestic new energy passenger vehicles was 1.109 million, with a year-on-year growth of 9.8%.
Driven by the sustained high-speed growth of global new energy vehicles, especially domestic new energy vehicle sales, new energy industry technology, specifications and standards are rapidly updated and iterated, and a relatively complete new energy industry chain has been cultivated.
But it is worth noting that with the transformation of new energy vehicles to market driven, the competition of new energy vehicle products will not only be limited to new energy vehicles, but also compete with traditional vehicles for market share. In this process, enterprises must always cherish the crisis consciousness of “born in hardship, die in happiness”, and constantly improve their competitiveness, so as to gain a foothold in the market.
From the current situation, new energy vehicles still have some problems, such as low driving range, mileage anxiety and so on. Frequent spontaneous combustion accidents increase consumers’ concerns about the safety of new energy vehicles. Improving product performance and reducing vehicle manufacturing costs will be the key to the competition of new energy vehicles in the field of low and medium price.
In the future, with the layout of new energy vehicles by vehicle manufacturers at home and abroad, diversified product pedigree and intensified industry competition will become the development trend of new energy vehicle industry. The critical point of new energy vehicle marketization has arrived, and the epidemic situation has accelerated the speed of industry reshuffle. The backward production capacity of vehicle and its upstream parts suppliers will be gradually eliminated.