Welcome to the wechat subscription number of “chuangshiji”: sinachungshiji
By Guo Kaisen and Yang Fan
Source: Lujiu Finance (ID: liujiucaijing69)
Jitter, Kwai, B station, who will be the first three commercialized video search business, and grab Baidu search market tiktok?
Google and Baidu are the search engine giants in the graphic era, but the two traditional search businesses have already reached the ceiling, and the annual revenue growth is extremely slow, but people’s thirst for knowledge will not stop, and search will always be the user demand.
We predict that short video search will soon blow out.
It’s still very simple. The way of recording human civilization is copying from pictures and texts to videos. Pay attention to copying, not cutting. Pictures and texts will still exist.
This blowout will first impact the traditional search flow pool in the six directions of tutorial, product, character, news, video material and film.
Besides, tiktok, Kwai, B station may have their own video search ranking in the near future, and will also do their own Encyclopedia of knowledge, and will also do their own brand area.
The foreseeable future is that the search war in the short video industry is imminent. This is a money printing game. Who will be the first to rush out? Tiktok? Kwai? Or station B?
Copyright scramble in short video industry
Beijing is very cold in winter, and it sets the lowest temperature record in this century. Lu Jiu is a company that cooks for years. It’s cold and hard to get tiktok. Hard dishes are generally hard to do. Only think of ways to learn by yourself. Interesting things happen. Everyone is going to search for cooking courses on the shaking sound. Baidu’s search for recipes in traditional sense has not happened.
This moment, let us feel, unconsciously, the turning point of the search industry has come, bit by bit, let it happen.
Why do you say that? This is definitely not alarmist. We have conducted a user survey of 50 friends around us, and found that there is a tendency of short video search for all men, women, old and young, and graphic search is also turning to wechat search. Traditional search channels are under great threat.
Lu Jiu’s financial colleague Xiao Jia told us that the biggest advantage of using short video search is that you don’t have to look at the dense words in advance. Just do what you want, and the final result will not be wrong. The answer is more intuitive.
The 60 year old users tell us that their eyes are not good, they can’t read clearly, their education level is limited, and they don’t have enough understanding ability. The answers given by short video search are more convenient to understand.
Tiktok, but also from the perspective of product configuration, Kwai Yin, or fast track and B station, have no strength in searching this business. Commercialization is not moving. The content is recommended by algorithms, and is uploaded by users. The platform does not identify the content.
However, all these behaviors will take place in the near future. In the future, short video content will be classified into two types: included by the platform and not included. For included content, the platform will cooperate in the form of copyright. The era of copyright in the field of short video will soon come.
Encyclopedia of short video
After analysis, Guo Defan came to the conclusion that short video can not completely replace today’s traditional search, but in terms of some content, it will occupy today’s traditional search market to a great extent. Compared with Baidu, Google’s life will be much healthier. After all, it has invested a lot of money on YouTube and formed a closed-loop protection.
There are six key areas: tutorials, products, characters, news events, video materials and films. We judge that in the earliest stage, this kind of encroachment will appear in the form of encyclopedia.
The first is the tutorial class, how to make a dish, how to install a quilt cover, how to assemble a computer, all kinds of knowledge blind spots that need hands-on, people are choosing to use video search to solve, because video’s natural intuitive expressive power, compared with words, is more suitable for people to imitate and learn.
Secondly, the product introduction, especially the introduction of electronic products, is also very consistent with the video presentation. Now the fire of live e-commerce also reflects the natural temperament between video and products.
Third, the popularity of character introduction. At present, this kind of content has been very much in the field of short video, but the production level is different, so it needs to be strictly screened.
Fourth, there is no doubt that in the past few years, the first place of news explosion has moved to the short video platform. Although people from all walks of life can’t write press releases, they still have the ability to shoot videos at will. In the era of personal record, it embodies incisively and vividly.
Fifthly, all kinds of video clips are also what most short video practitioners have to search every day. The world’s article a copy, short video industry video is the same, the world’s video a cut.
Finally, there is the secondary adaptation of the popular movies and TV series on the major platforms. Many young people have no time to go to the movies, so they can watch them quickly in this way.
To sum up, we predict that knowledge encyclopedia will first appear in the short video search industry. The platform will authenticate the above massive content, and then build its own video encyclopedia channel for users to search and present content with guaranteed quality.
A transformation of information storage mode
What is the deep nature of these changes? It is a change in the form of human civilization.
For thousands of years, graphics and text have been responsible for the memory of human wisdom. But today, this form of graphics and text is being translated into video by video workers. The translation speed is very fast, and it may be completed in a few years.
Why these short video platforms have not made efforts in search? Obviously, the migration of this information mode has not been completed, and the types and quantity of short videos owned by each company are not enough. If you study it carefully, you will find that every year, every company guides content producers to create in the direction that the platform needs. The platform controls the direction of this information ship.
With the current speed of migration, in terms of content breadth, video content should reach the level of graphics and text in three years, but in terms of depth, it may never surpass graphics and text. After all, graphics and text is a coherent mode of thinking, while video carries more fragmented thinking.
So, video search will replace graphic search to a large extent, but it is absolutely impossible to completely replace it. When you need to study something in depth, the advantages of graphic search will show up, and video can only be used as an introduction.
This process, in our view, is a return of information.
When human beings were born, we used vision to observe the world and understand the world. We didn’t have words and language. With the appearance of words, our civilization got the opportunity of inheritance, wisdom was superimposed, and society was developed. However, the appearance of video made us return to our nature, the most traditional way of intuitively receiving information, namely Seeing, seeing.
At present, behind the little change in user habits that we have seen is a big change in the storage form of human civilization, and video search is just a small part of it.
Short video search will be the next banknote printing machine
Before the advent of mobile Internet, Google and Baidu were the two most prosperous money printing machines in the Internet field all over the world. However, both of them have already reached the ceiling in search business, and traditional search has become a rusty money printing machine.
Some people may say that it is the failure of the search itself, it is a matter of form, baidu did not get the flow entrance of the mobile Internet; Guo Defan does not agree with these views. In our opinion, search will always be a money printing machine, the pursuit of human blind spots of knowledge will not disappear, that is, the so-called thirst for knowledge.
Last year, we made a lot of predictions: the share price of Xiaomi doubled, station B went public for the second time, and even asserted that musk would become the richest man when the wealth gap between musk and Bezos reached US $100 billion. Now we boldly predict that short video search will be the next money printing machine.
Baidu has done tricks, in the future of short video search will be staged again, competitive ranking, brand zone, knowledge encyclopedia, community, news, no less.
Tens of thousands of Kwai Chai, who are playing the game of content, are still a content game. In the era of graphic and text, Google and Baidu were the tiktok Internet content. In the short video era, the voice, the fast, and the B stood at very little money, and leveraged thousands of creators to produce content output in their private domain pools.
Therefore, in the era of short video search, these platforms need to share the revenue of these creators while making money. From a commercial point of view, this model must be further developed than the previous model of Baidu.
Kwai Kwai tiktok is now ready to be heard. The B station is now on the market. Tiktok is ready to listen. The B station has the greatest advantage in encyclopedia. The most likely way to do the big search is to shake the voice.
The market value of this banknote printing machine is still trillions. It’s just that there won’t be only one player. Tiktok is the fastest awakening now. Guo Defan hopes that the other families will wake up, otherwise the game will be no fun.
What are the sequelae of fragmentation
The era of short video search is coming. Is it good or bad?
Some time ago, some of Guo Defan’s old friends chatted with each other and recalled a lot of time when they were young, poetry and distant time. We read books and talked with wise people. We yearn for distant places and need to wade across mountains and rivers to find out for ourselves.
But in today’s era, these are not important, short video is bringing us a fragmentation era without distance, all the consistent information is being torn into small pieces, we learn a lot of knowledge through short video, but each knowledge is so short and useless.
No system, no deep connection, no coherence.
Tiktok is not the book or even the education that affects the minds of young people. The mobile phone has a higher weight on people’s thinking and thinking. A friend of ours came to visit us the other day, describing to us the story of his old father who had just finished his brain surgery. He just stepped off the operating table and got to bed. At that time, he was shocked by the intuitive feeling that this information communication mode, which does not need to use the brain or even read, is virtually changing everyone’s cognition of the world.
So, the question is, is this fragmented way of information dissemination really good? We don’t think so. This way may destroy the ability of our young people in the future to think coherently in the humanities and arts.
Why only the humanities and arts? Because science knowledge needs to be learned over time, the so-called inspiration and impulsive motivation does not exist; but in the humanities and arts, it is often based on instant inspiration and impulse, so the current short video platform is full of a lot of content without nutrition, which are typical fragmented content.
However, what really nourishes our civilization is the consistent thinking after a long time of thinking. A novel, a movie, a Book of poetry, the establishment of a kind of philosophical thinking, these need the combination of genius and time, but such a cultural form is less and less nowadays.
Let’s recall how many years have passed since a novel with real connotation was published? How many years ago, no film was born that really surpassed art and Commerce? How many years have no poet or philosopher come into public view?
Will our times really be better without writers, poets and philosophers?