Sina science and technology news on the morning of December 28, Alibaba Dharma Institute released the top ten technology trends of 2021, which is the third annual technology trend released by Dharma institute since its establishment three years ago.
Materials are the basis of all scientific and technological development, and new material technology has promoted many rounds of scientific and technological revolution. However, due to the high cost and immature production process, many new materials have not been applied on a large scale. Damo Institute believes that in the next few years, the third generation semiconductor materials represented by Gan and SiC will achieve breakthroughs in material growth, device preparation and other technologies, and will be applied to 5g base stations, new energy vehicles, ultra-high voltage, data centers and other new infrastructure scenarios, greatly reducing the overall energy consumption.
The value of new materials is not only to provide better performance, but also to break through the physical limits of traditional materials. According to the prediction of Damo Institute, carbon based materials, as the core materials for making flexible devices, will go out of the laboratory and prepare flexible electronic devices that can stretch and bend at will. For example, the electronic skin made of this material not only has mechanical properties similar to the real skin, but also has the function of sensing the external environment Yes.
In the past few years, AI technology has quietly penetrated into traditional industries. For example, AI has entered manufacturing enterprises to improve the efficiency of quality inspection. Da Mo yuan believes that the application of AI in production is just the beginning. Industries with good information foundation such as automobile, consumer electronics, clothing, steel and chemical industry will realize the global intelligence of supply chain, production, assets, logistics, sales and other links, and finally realize the substantial improvement of production and operation efficiency.
In the medical field, it is generally accepted that the combination of AI with drug and vaccine research and development is the general trend, but the successful cases of AI in drug development and marketing are extremely rare. Dharma Institute pointed out that the iteration and computational power breakthrough of the new AI algorithm will solve the problems of drug molecular target confirmation and drug properties. For example, in the process of vaccine development, AI can automatically input effective compound models, and then compare and screen with hundreds of millions of different chemical compounds generated by computer synthesis program, so as to quickly find high-quality candidate compounds for vaccines.
As the future technology of human-computer interaction and human-computer hybrid intelligence, BCI has great research value in the medical field. Dharma hospital pointed out in the trend that the academic and industrial circles are striving to overcome the problems of brain signal acquisition and processing, and help people better understand the working principle of the brain. The maturity of technology will accelerate the clinical application of brain computer interface, and will provide accurate rehabilitation services for patients who can’t speak or move in the future.
The development of science and technology is always in the mode of continuous divergence and convergence. Last year, Dharma Institute predicted that “the cloud will become the innovation center of IT technology”. After a year, the original generation of cloud has become a new variable in the field of cloud computing. Dharma Institute proposed that in the future, chips, development platforms, application software and even computers will be born in the cloud, AI, 5g, blockchain and other technologies will be implemented in the cloud native way, and the path for enterprises to obtain it services will be shortened again.
The top ten trends are as follows:
Trend 1: the third generation of semiconductors represented by Gan and SiC ushered in a big explosion of applications
Gallium nitride (GAN) and silicon carbide (SIC) as the representative of the third generation semiconductor, with high temperature resistance, high voltage resistance, high frequency, high power, radiation resistance and other excellent characteristics, but limited by process, cost and other factors, for many years only limited to a small range of applications. In recent years, with the continuous breakthrough of material growth, device preparation and other technologies, the cost performance advantage of the third generation semiconductor is gradually emerging and is opening up the application market: SiC components have been used in automotive inverters, and Gan fast chargers are also on the market. In the next five years, electronic devices based on the third generation semiconductor materials will be widely used in 5g base stations, new energy vehicles, UHV, data centers and other scenarios.
Second, in the post “quantum hegemony” era, quantum error correction and practical advantages become the core proposition
2020 is the first year of “quantum hegemony”. The world’s investment in quantum computing continues to rise, technology and ecology are booming, and many platforms are colorful. This trend will continue to push up the attention and expectation of the society in 2021. The research of quantum computing needs to prove its practical value. The industry needs to focus on the mission of the “post hegemony” era: collaborative innovation, solving many scientific and engineering problems, and laying the foundation for reaching the two milestones of quantum error correction and practical advantage as soon as possible.
Trend 3: carbon based technology breakthroughs accelerate the development of flexible electronics
Flexible electronics refers to the electronic devices that keep their original performance after shape changes such as twisting, folding and stretching, which can be used as wearable devices, electronic skin, flexible display screen, etc. The main bottleneck of the development of flexible electronics lies in the materials, which are not flexible enough and easy to fail, or their electrical properties are far inferior to those of hard silicon-based electronics. In recent years, the technological breakthrough of carbon based materials provides a better choice for flexible electronic materials: the quality of carbon nanotubes, a carbon based flexible material, can meet the requirements of large-scale integrated circuit preparation, and the circuit performance prepared on this material is better than that of silicon-based circuit with the same size; and the large-area preparation of graphene, another carbon based flexible material, has also been realized.
Trend 4: AI improves the efficiency of drug and vaccine research and development
AI has been widely used in medical imaging, medical record management and other auxiliary diagnostic scenarios, but the application of AI in vaccine development and drug clinical research is still in the exploratory stage. With the iteration of new AI algorithm and breakthrough of computational power, AI will effectively solve the problems of long cycle and high cost of vaccine / drug development, such as improving the efficiency of compound screening, disease modeling, new target discovery, lead compound discovery and lead drug optimization. The combination of AI with vaccine and drug clinical research can reduce repetitive labor and time consumption, improve R & D efficiency, and greatly promote the inclusive of medical services and drugs.
Trend 5: brain computer interface helps human beings transcend biological limits
Brain computer interface is the key technology of the new generation of human-computer interaction and human-computer hybrid intelligence. Brain computer interface (BCI) plays an important role in supporting and promoting the development of neural engineering, helping human beings to further analyze the working principle of human brain from a higher dimensional space. Brain computer interface (BCI), a new technology field, is an exploratory way to communicate between the brain and external devices, and to control the machine by brain power. For example, to help improve the application accuracy in controlling the mechanical arm will provide accurate rehabilitation services for patients who are conscious and have sound thinking but can not speak or move their hands.
Trend 6: “autonomy and self evolution” of data processing
With the development of cloud computing and the continuous exponential growth of data scale, traditional data processing is faced with great challenges such as high storage cost, complex cluster management, and diversity of computing tasks; facing the huge increase of data scale and complex and diverse processing scenarios, manual management and system tuning are difficult. Therefore, the automatic optimization of data management system through intelligent method becomes the inevitable choice for the future development of data processing. Artificial intelligence and machine learning methods are gradually widely used in intelligent hot and cold data layering, anomaly detection, intelligent modeling, resource mobilization, parameter tuning, pressure test generation, index recommendation and other fields, effectively reducing the management cost of data calculation, processing, storage, operation and maintenance, and realizing the “autonomy and self evolution” of data management system.
Trend 7: cloud native reshapes IT technology system
In the traditional IT development environment, the product development online cycle is long and the R & D efficiency is not high. Cloud native architecture makes full use of the distributed, scalable and flexible characteristics of cloud computing to more efficiently apply and manage various cloud computing resources in heterogeneous hardware and environment. Through methodology toolset, best practices and product technology, developers can focus on the application development process itself 。 In the future, chips, development platforms, application software and even computers will be born on the cloud, which can highly abstract the network, server, operating system and other infrastructure layers, reduce computing costs, improve iteration efficiency, significantly reduce the threshold of cloud computing, and expand the technology application boundary.
Eight trends of agricultural intelligent data
The development of traditional agricultural industry has some bottleneck problems, such as low utilization rate of land resources and disconnection from production to retail. Science and technology represented by Internet of things, artificial intelligence and cloud computing are deeply integrated with agricultural industry to open up the whole link process of agricultural industry. Combined with the new generation of sensor technology, the farmland ground data information can be obtained and perceived in real time, and rely on big data analysis and artificial intelligence technology to quickly process the massive field of agricultural data, to achieve crop monitoring, fine breeding and on-demand allocation of environmental resources. At the same time, through the application of 5g, Internet of things, blockchain and other technologies, we can ensure the controllability and traceability in the logistics transportation of agricultural products, and ensure the safety and reliability of the overall supply chain process of agricultural products. Agriculture will bid farewell to “relying on the sky” to enter the era of intelligent agriculture.
Trend 9: Industrial Internet moves from single point intelligence to global intelligence
Due to the high implementation cost and complexity, difficult access to supply side data, imperfect overall ecology and other factors, the current industrial intelligence still focuses on solving the demand for fragmentation. The resilience shown by the digital economy in the epidemic situation makes enterprises pay more attention to the value of industrial intelligence. In addition, the progress and popularization of digital technology and the investment pull of new infrastructure will jointly promote the rapid transition of industrial intelligence from single point intelligence to global intelligence, especially the manufacturing industry with good information foundation, such as automobile, consumer electronics, brand clothing, steel, cement and chemical industry The global intelligent application of closed-loop production decision-making throughout the supply chain, production, assets, logistics, sales and other links will emerge on a large scale.
Trend 10: smart operation center becomes the standard configuration of future cities
In the past 10 years, smart city has effectively improved the level of urban governance with the help of digital means. However, the so-called “smart business” focuses on urban construction rather than operation, which leads to some problems. In this context, city managers hope to revitalize data resources through the operation center, and promote the overall, refined and real-time governance and service. The growing maturity and popularization of aiot technology and the progress of spatial computing technology will further enhance the intelligent level of the operation center. On the basis of digital twin, the city will be regarded as a unified system and provide the overall intelligent governance ability, and then become the digital infrastructure of the future city.