Welcome to the wechat subscription number of chuangshiji
Wen / Ma Rong
Source: new knowledge of science and Technology (ID: kejixinzhi)
On September 29, 2020, Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, held a debate. On the domestic Internet, the code names of the two debaters are “chuanjianguo” and “baizhenhua”.
The whole debate was full of noise and commotion, and trump frequently interrupted Biden’s speech because of his strong will to turn the table. At the same time, trump needs to make a bigger voice to show voters that he is more energetic than his opponent, which makes the debate closer to the farce of children’s voice competition. CNN commentator Jack Tupper described the debate as follows:
“It’s like a dump fire.”
From any angle, the American presidential system is closer to a kind of “luxury”. In 2016 alone, Trump’s and Hillary Clinton’s elections cost $6.5 billion. In a society that is in urgent need of solving the epidemic crisis, the election requires people to gather and March frequently, go to and leave the “new crown culture dish”, and spend a lot of energy on the “sacred vote”, although in tiepiao Cang Prefecture, such deliberation is often in vain.
Only an environment with sufficient material resources can provide such luxurious internal friction. In terms of resources, the United States owned 74.6% of the world’s gold reserves after World War II; geographically, the weak Canada and Mexico made the United States have no pressure of external aggression. Although fragmentation and divergence have been prevalent in the United States for a long time, it does not affect the maintenance of a high-cost superstructure in the United States.
01 internal friction game
To some extent, Tencent’s well-known internal horse racing system is also the product of such a special soil. In the article Tencent on dog day, computer world once described Tencent’s excellent soil
“No matter how happy you are now, it will be Tencent’s turn to finish when the market is almost cultivated.”
In 2004, Tencent first verified the competitiveness of “social traffic + game” in the chess and card game market. QQ game took one year to defeat the chess and card overlord Lianzhong. Several competitive advantages of Tencent were proved at this stage.
For example, after the emergence of QQ account login, login is no longer a very tedious work; at the same time, with the help of QQ, Tencent realized the retention and derivation of social relations in the game; in terms of expansion ability, Tencent formed a “dimension reduction attack” on other competitors; the early generation of netizens even promoted the birth of the era of “all people fighting landlords” through QQ, while other platforms did not have this Ability.
The effect is that Tencent does not need to do too much publicity and promotion, it can push a product with certain competitiveness to the top. This provides important chips for Tencent to compete with Shanda, Netease, giant and Jiucheng.
Another boost is the development of Tencent’s property charging system. In the early online games such as “world of Warcraft” and “dream journey to the west”, the industry generally attached importance to the fairness of the game, and the point card system of charging on time suppressed the local tyrants’ willingness to pay extra. In 2005, Shanda changed “legend” into a property charging system, and the point card system was gradually buried in the dust of history.
Before Tencent enters the arena, the props system net game once was the completely different “three-stage rocket” system. The low-end players build momentum, support and expand the game experience for local tyrants; middle end players pay at key nodes such as new year’s day and wage day; high-end players start to pay a lot from the early stage of admission until the game experience shrinks. The reasons for the loss of local tyrants are the loss of non paid low-end players, and the failure of event design to provide a peer-to-peer experience with payment.
This is complementary to Tencent’s social advantages. Tencent’s sense of superiority is beyond the sense of social networking, and the sense of superiority of Tencent’s social network is beyond that of QQ. In the era of PC, lighting up QQ game icon was once a show off capital of users. After the extension of the sense of superiority and return to feed the user stickiness. In a class or dormitory, paid experience is often the core topic that players talk about (such as May 1, national day, new year, etc.), and this environment will promote new free users to join the pay camp.
In addition, the commercial capacity of early single player games was limited due to piracy. The point card system led to the rise of Shanda, Jiucheng, Netease and other companies. However, after the rise of props system, the online game as a cash cow business was further awakened. At the same time, it means that the Matthew effect of the industry is intensified, players are liberated from the point card bondage, and further concentrate on the head game. Horizontal version pass, MMORPG, FPS and other subdivision fields are dominated by several head works.
Tencent’s horse racing system is closer to the product of the special environment of the game market. With the industry resources to the head of the concentration, and the law of explosive money is difficult to capture. Opening up the competition restrictions of multiple teams in the same track is conducive to expanding the probability of catching hot money.
Among the four game studios of the former Tencent mutual entertainment business group in the PC era, quantum studio is famous for RPG, and the sky is famous for its leisure games that imitate hot game playing methods. However, after the cooperative business unit launched CF, DNF, lol and other phenomenal blockbusters, the studio’s interest in inheriting and inheriting the blockbuster works has obviously increased.
Taking the FPS classification represented by CF as an example, the cooperative business unit represented the king of the battlefield in 2009, while Lin Lang Tian Tian successively released two products, namely, anti war and the tale of the gun god, seeking innovation on the basis of CF from the perspectives of PVE, secondary positioning, roles, props and painting styles.
Fierce user competition for the above products has been widespread. For example, “king of the battlefield” announced its service suspension in 2019. The core reason is that it is difficult to compete with “crossing the line of fire”.
However, from another perspective, the non Tencent FPS works such as “watchman”, “pubg” and so on have all risen since then, indicating that the internal competition mechanism is still beneficial for Tencent to get out of the old merit book and face the new competition. At the same time, Tencent has the role of moat at the head of the subdivision track. In addition, a series of online accusations of Tencent plagiarism have forced Tencent to pay attention to the diversification of its products.
The horse racing mechanism, which is really well known to the outside world, came into being in the environment of “end to hand” bonus period.
After the rise of mobile, due to large user demand and less market competition, the mobile game market has formed a similar super bull market effect. A large number of early products entered the market, and their monthly living and running data are climbing like elevators. If we use investment terms to describe, mobile game products in this period generally enjoy the β – income (average income) brought by the environment.
In the mobile market, the mobile products with top blockbuster works such as MoBa and FPS, as well as social products that take over QQ, are the ones that can steadily reap α – Returns (excess returns) in the mobile market. In the PC era, the above-mentioned products have a large audience and strong liquidity, so long as they are connected smoothly, the potential of mobile is great.
Facts have proved that in the above-mentioned markets, Tencent has seen several studios competing for a racetrack at the same time, including hand Q team, q-letter team and QQ email team competing for mobile social circuit; Tianmei and photon compete for MoBa track and pubg mobile track. These competitions bring unprecedented internal friction and unprecedented success to Tencent.
02 Netease style horse racing
Historical experience shows that since World War II, the emerging countries with independent colonial status have sought to copy the experience of suzerain in their development, such as universal suffrage system, multi-party system and so on. India, which copied the British system, is a typical example.
However, due to the lack of the original capital accumulation process in which the colonial empire deprived the indigenous people of the new world, the top-level design copied by the colonial empire did not glow, but became the high cost of the colonial countries themselves because of the high requirements of the operating conditions. This shows that it is necessary for the country to decide its development strategy according to its own basic conditions, rather than copying the experience of the head players.
Obviously, Tencent and Netease are also the products of such two soils.
Compared with Tencent, which is famous for its horse racing culture, Netease shows more of a culture of survival desire. It is not only the lack of social products on the game drainage, but also related to Ding Lei’s cautious and non radical personality. Just because of operating losses, Netease chose to sell Netease koala, once the largest market share, to Alibaba in exchange for Alibaba’s $700 million B + round investment in Netease cloud music.
If we look at the history of NetEase, NetEase has been struggling for more than a year after the Internet bubble burst just after listing, and the stock market once struggled on the edge of the $1 share price retreat. According to Ding Lei, Netease has even become an “abandoned son” in the investment market
“In fact, I was confused at that time, and even had the heart to sell Netease. The reason for not selling is not that I don’t sell, but that there is something wrong with our financial audit and people refuse to buy it. ”
In the era of end game, Netease once laid the foundation for the head Internet enterprise through the success of self-developed works such as “a journey to the west”, “a dream journey to the west”, and formed the characteristics of taking the heavy MMORPG as the foundation. Compared with the leisure and entertainment games that Tencent is good at, the severe RPG has a certain exclusion to the horse racing system because of its own development cycle, development cost and other characteristics.
Corresponding to its formation, Netease has a large number of IP used and derivative works. Compared with using multiple studios to tackle the same track at the same time, reusing the existing world view, system design, role design and other data, and implementing skin replacement surgery in art, marketing positioning and other levels can minimize the development cost and ensure the acceptance of players. The perfect world, the first mock exam of the stock market, is the masterpiece of this model.
In the PC era, Netease has a “journey to the West Trilogy” derived from Dahua journey to the West: Dahua journey to the West 1-3, dream journey to the West and Genesis journey to the West. Even the blockbuster work “dream journey to the west” itself is the product formed by injecting new art and other resources after Dahua 1 gave up due to plug-in and bug problems.
In the mobile era, Netease has been able to resist Tencent to a certain extent in addition to the wave of “end to hand” sought by the industry, which benefits from the self research ability since the PC era. At the same time, Netease will continue to use the PC era of IP strategy into the mobile game market, “decisive battle! Ping An Jing and Yin Yang Shi Bai Wen Pai still use the role and world outlook of Yin Yang Shi.
Compared with PC end game, the mobile product volume is smaller, the development difficulty is also relatively reduced, and the independent operation of studio or project team is more common. In 2014, Tencent divided the original eight Game Studios into 20, belonging to Tianmei, photonics, Rubik’s cube and aurora borealis. Compared with Tencent, Netease’s studio is relatively low in popularity. In Guangzhou’s online game business department, the trump card products are old-fashioned games such as dream journey to the West and Dahua journey to the West; while Leihuo business department and Zen studio in Hangzhou have created such popular mobile terminal products as Yin Yang master and the fifth personality.
Netease lacks the gene of horse racing, but at the time when MoBa and chicken eating works change hands significantly, Netease’s willingness to impact is quite obvious.
Among them, “wilderness action” and “Terminator 2” are faster than Tencent’s Photonics and Tianmei. In the field of MoBa, Netease still has a series of works such as “non human School Park”, “code m”, “super dimension duel” and so on. Some of these works disappeared due to poor data, or can be regarded as a reduced version of the horse racing system.
03 horse racing system and its end
From the point of view of the horse racing system itself, it is closer to the exclusive playing method of the game market: the logic of explosive money is elusive, and the profit of explosive money is great. The whole track is closer to the lottery box, players reach out more hands to draw, and the chance of winning is also greater. The better the soil is, the more willing it is to extend one more hand.
But horse racing has its own costs.
The “flow + product” method itself is suitable for Tencent to occupy the advantage of social traffic, and the product itself has low competition barriers and demands for user interaction. Under the background of the disadvantages of the products, Tencent’s horse racing mechanism sometimes reacts on itself, forming internal friction and equalizing the scale advantage. In recent years, Tencent and byte system in the game repeatedly.
In 2018 tiktok, in order to challenge the challenge, Tencent launched nearly 20 short video products, which are Yoo video, video, video, flash, DOV, MOKA magic card, cat cake, MO sound, Harbin, Tencent cloud small video, soy sauce, hot pot video…… But the ultimate choice of Tencent is to support Kwai Chung.
In 2019, Tencent integrated the information flow business originally scattered in QQ, wechat, Tencent News, QQ browser and other products, and soon began to integrate the large cultural and entertainment sectors including Internet, comics, music, film and television, and games.
The opponent of the new era is no longer the United games lacking moat. Under the huge pressure of byte system, Tencent’s horse racing system of decentralized operations has lost its fighting ability, and it no longer has the foundation to pay high internal consumption costs.
In addition, the short video itself has squeezed the use time of game users, and is impacting the game company’s buying channels behind Tencent app app, wechat and QQ game centers. Although the byte system game itself has not yet posed a threat to Tencent, the control of the channel is still enough to make Tencent feel scared. In some low threshold, easy to imitate the game field, Tencent hanging Lianzhong past, it is difficult to say whether it will repeat on the byte system.
Another major change is that the mobile track itself is undergoing dramatic changes.
The history of Netease and Tencent’s two strategies in the PC era shows that the premise of the success of the horse racing system is that the development cost is low enough and the track revenue is sufficient. And both preconditions are subtly changing.
From the growth of the whole market, we can see that the growth of the whole market is changing from the extensive development. In the early stage, the phenomenon that leisure mobile games such as rhythm master and daily cool run easily increased to the national level became more difficult. At the same time, MIHA’s “original God” is forcing more mobile game companies to shift their focus from marketing to R & D with a $100 million R & D cost and better market feedback.
From the track revenue point of view, the entire A-share game concept plate is experiencing a sharp drop, including “page change hand” three seven mutual entertainment, “end to hand” perfect world and so on. From the track point of view, the data of old brand end game mobile products is also generally declining. The reason is that the life of game products is too short after all. The single play method can easily lead to the loss of user demand.
“Glory of the king” and “exciting the battlefield” are the peak of the hand tour, and also the signal flares opened in the second half of the mobile game.