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By Xu Yiwen
Source: zinc Finance (ID: xincaijing)
Just two days after the announcement of the new financial report, on November 25, Ruhan holdings announced that it had received initial non binding privatization applications from the three founders, proposing to privatize the company at a price of US $0.68 per share.
The first stock of online Red economy finally chose to withdraw from the capital market. Zhang Dayi, a former Taobao No.1 Internet celebrity and now Ruhan CMO, who holds 13% of the shares of Ruhan and 2.8% of the voting rights, has returned to the public’s view seven months after the storm of public opinion.
With a loss of 30 million yuan and a share price of 3 yuan, it took a year and seven months to create the next Zhang Dayi, and still could not prove that he could make a stable profit.
On the other hand, with the rise of live e-commerce, Li Jiaqi has frequently created new history. The online Red economy has not been what it was a year ago.
The capital market does not believe in face, only money. Therefore, whether to admit defeat and be kicked out of the market, or to walk away before the iceberg collapses completely, Ruhan chooses the latter. However, the story can not go on, and the money is more and more difficult to earn.
The stock price is low, the transformation is difficult to become, a Zhang Dayi can’t support the Empire
Since April, Zhang has kept a low profile. Even in November, the most important node for e-commerce, Zhang Dayi failed to maintain the rhythm of live broadcasting. Instead, he appeared in the studio on October 21 and November 11. The head of the site of net red, for a group of girls in laughter. According to media statistics, Zhang Dayi’s double 11 data has dropped sharply compared with previous years.
As for Zhang Dayi, what is even worse than the sales volume is the sluggish share price of the parent company Ruhan holding and the second quarter financial report that needs to be published urgently.
On November 23, Ruhan Holding Co., Ltd. announced the second quarter financial report of fiscal year 2021. As of September 30, Ruhan holdings had a revenue of 248.5 million yuan in the second fiscal quarter, down 9% from the same period last year; the net loss attributable to Ruhan holdings reached 31.2 million yuan, compared with the net profit of 10.7 million yuan in the previous fiscal quarter.
Until yesterday afternoon, as soon as the privatization proposal was put forward, the share price of “3” fell back to $2.89. The Thanksgiving holiday prevented the shares from falling further. Even so, the long-term stock price at the beginning of 2 is only a fraction of the original issue price of $12.50.
In 2009, Zhang Dayi was selected to be the exclusive model of liebeilin, a women’s clothing store owned by Ruhan. Since then, she has put an e-commerce company on NASDAQ and become the first share of online celebrity economy. But now, such as Han’s network red story has been told.
As the first stock of online Red economy, Ruhan holding adopts the business model of “online celebrity + Incubator + supply chain”. There are mainly two business models: the platform mode of selling “service” and the all-round service mode of selling “products”.
Last year, Ruhan proposed the “platform” model as the direction of transformation. The so-called platform mode can be divided into four types:
1. “Joint venture mode” refers to providing “joint venture” service to customers with Taobao stores or supply chain, helping Taobao stores reduce cost and increase flow, and then extract a percentage from sales.
2. “Light store” mode is that Ruhan provides online celebrities, uses Buyer show and other forms to guide stores of multiple businesses, and then Ruhan charges merchants according to the flow and corresponding sales volume.
3. Brand promotion: Ruhan provides online celebrities to promote the brand in the form of pictures and short videos on various social platforms, commonly known as grass planting.
4. Live with goods, a business that can’t be abandoned and has no new ideas.
It can be seen that Ruhan is trying to change from a “film and television company” with complete supply chain and incubation capacity to a “brokerage” company which is inclined to marketing business. Financial data show that in the second fiscal quarter, the revenue of platform mode was 119.3 million yuan, which was close to 50% of that of product mode, with a significant increase.
It was forced, but in fact it was. Behind the growth of platform mode is that the main business has entered a period of contraction.
The main business mode of “home business” is “all-round service”. Compared with the previous fiscal year, this year, Ruhan reduced the number of self operated online stores, leaving only 17; KOL decreased, and three big trees including Zhang Dayi were hoisted back; the sales volume of products dropped sharply to 129 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.9%.
The sharp reduction of the product model has become the main reason for the overall revenue. The explanation given by Ruhan is “affected by the decrease in the revenue of an online shop under the red name of a head net”, pointing to the performance decline caused by Zhang Dayi’s personal negative event in April.
This just shows that the so-called transformation is not a deliberate initiative to change, but a passive survival under market pressure. In the end, Ruhan couldn’t create the next Zhang Dayi. Capital lost his imagination to Ruhan.
Zhang Dayi is the winner and the loser is Zhang Dayi
When it comes to Ruhan, she is not only the face of Ruhan, but also the inner part of Ruhan. Zhang Dayi is an epitome of Ruhan’s coming to this stage.
On most occasions, the story of Zhang Dayi’s fame is enough for ordinary girls to talk about and envy. Because of the dividend of microblog video, from a model of Taobao clothing store to the online celebrity with millions of fans, and finally became the CMO of a listed company.
Zhang Dayi’s success directly gave birth to an industrial chain: online Red Taobao store. Therefore, from the perspective of economic development, it is worth mentioning.
However, companies shaped by the times will be abandoned by the times if they are not careful.
2016 is a happy year for Zhang Dayi. This year, the Taobao store under her name sold 300 million yuan, becoming the second place in the category of women’s clothing on Taobao. Taobao specially produced a documentary about her to tell the story of online celebrity e-commerce. Maybe it was too much publicity, some opportunities did not attract her attention.
On June 20 of this year, it was 100 days after Taobao’s live broadcast came out. Taobao invited many stars into the studio. Among them, Zhang Dayi is arranged in the prime time from 8:00 to 10:00 p.m. In two hours, Zhang Dayi sold 20 million yuan, and the customer price reached 400 yuan.
After the live broadcast, she said that she was “a little tired” and said: “the live mode of competing for a long time will make people feel tired. I think this mode will change after the double 12, because the conversion rate of live broadcasting is decreasing.”
We’ll know all the later stories. On September 18, 2019, Zhang Dayi posted a micro blog to announce that he was officially marching into Taobao live broadcasting: “Ruhan has been preparing and observing for several months, yes, Zhang Dayi is going to live. I have been keeping many brands out of the door before, and I want to open up my own new field. ”
This sentence still reveals the pride of the former “Taobao No.1 online star”, but the river and lake are not the same as that in 2016. This year, the live broadcast with goods broke out in an all-round way. Li Jiaqi and Weiya entered the stage of buying 300 million yuan in one night. Zhang Dayi, who sold 300 million yuan that year, came late. Ruhan missed a new era.
What is more fatal than missing is that Ruhan is still sticking to the set of playing methods of throwing money to cultivate net red. In the second half of 2019, if Han uses the way of spreading the net to recruit Su Ren wanghong, then it is estimated that all female recruiters under 30 and over 18 years old can receive the recruitment notice of Ruhan “Haitou”. These ordinary people were put into the “youth training camp” specially aimed at the entry-level players, and began the half year long “network red training”.
Ruhan’s online Red training class tuyuan hedgehog commune
Perhaps it is Zhang Dayi’s public opinion events gave Ruhan a sense of crisis, and Ruhan accelerated the speed of Star building. In July 2020, Ruhan put forward the “BK” plan (i.e. best KOL) to attract top KOLs on major social platforms with various supporting conditions.
In addition, Ruhan adds new online celebrities at the rate of 5-10 per month. In addition, according to the consistent practice, it has set up accounts for setting up people, spending money on marketing and incubating accounts.
“Let the net red have more influence, let the influence better realize.” Feng min, the founder of Ruhan, said in a public report.
Although Ruhan still hasn’t got rid of Zhang Dayi mode, the road is more difficult than before. On the one hand, Ruhan with a pile of mid waist online celebrities can only go through the matrix marketing mode; on the other hand, the huge cost of incubating these online celebrities will not be less than before, which greatly reduces Ruhan’s gross profit margin.
Ruhan hasn’t found the right way yet, but there is really not much time left for Ruhan.
In July 2020, IMS tianxiaxiu and iResearch jointly released the first systematic research report on the whole industrial chain of China’s “red man economy”. According to the report, the market scale of China’s fan economy related industries will exceed 3.5 trillion yuan in 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 24.3%.
Meanwhile, in 2019, there are more than 20000 MCN institutions, with an annual compound growth rate of more than 234% compared with 2015. The growth rate of MCN is nearly 10 times that of the online red market, and the result is self-evident.
The era of Zhang Dayi has passed. As the market is highly saturated and the air outlet is changing rapidly, it is difficult to transform the mode. For example, the marketing company which only relies on a big mountain is not far away.
(statement: This article only represents the author’s point of view, not Sina’s position.)