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Text / Shen Lang editor / Lei Chunchi
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Eggshell apartment has accumulated losses of more than 6 billion yuan, and the potential debt is totally bottomless. If the money burning machine is to return to normal operation, it is likely to cost 8 billion to 10 billion yuan. I love my family, the one with the highest voice for receiving the offer. There is still a big stall to clean up. It is not practical to expect it.
The industry of long-term rental apartments has exploded one after another. Even eggshell apartments, which have been listed in the United States, can not be avoided. This has eloquently proved that the current mode of “rent loan” for most of the long-term apartments is a big hole, and it is completely unfeasible.
On November 18, the whole country bid farewell to the warm weather for many days, and ushered in strong winds, rain and snow, and cooling. At 10:51 a.m., the eggshell apartment in the center of the storm posted a message on the official microblog: “today I just want to say to you, pay attention to keep warm.” There is also a big red heart in the back.
In fact, there was no other meaning in this sentence, but the comment area turned over unexpectedly. A highly suspected user replied nervously three minutes after the microblog was sent out: “what do you mean, what do you mean? I’m so flustered!”
“Panic” is just a word, but it tells the mood of hundreds of thousands of eggshell apartment tenants, owners, property, cleaning, decoration workers, maintenance personnel, partners.
The current situation of eggshell apartment can not be described with a word “flustered”.
A few broadband charges beat hero
Since August this year, China’s long-term rental apartments ushered in the second wave of thunderstorms. Starting with some small regional brands, in early September, the “three color” Xiaoying began to join in. As the weather turned cold, bad news came out from big brands.
On October 14, dozens of partners from all over the country beat gongs to collect debts in the eggshell apartment’s Beijing office. Then, startled homeowners, tenants and property owners rushed to the scene. It is reported that the most miserable partner has been in arrears with the decoration payment of eggshell apartment for more than one year, with the amount of more than 10 million yuan.
According to Heinrich’s law, behind every serious accident that causes serious injury, death or major property loss, there must be 29 minor accidents, 300 attempted precursors and 1000 potential accidents. This conclusion has been confirmed in eggshell apartments.
As a long-time tenant, a netizen named “brother Li Bai” felt chilly about a month and a half ago: “on August 30, I met a tenant in Shanghai. The repair order submitted for the first time on eggshell app was cancelled, and the second one was ignored. I called Telecom. Their staff came to check the light cat and found that the user information was all No, the reason is that the account may be closed due to the long overdue time. ”
The past is the prelude. This is just the prelude to a half month of nationwide disconnection of eggshell apartments. The next day, a large number of tenants received the bad news that broadband was cut off for half a month.
The explanation of eggshell apartment to the “broken network” incident. The picture is from the Internet.
The reason given by eggshell apartment is the switching of network suppliers. The eye-catching people point out that the switching network is false, the capital chain is highly strained, and it is true that it is difficult to pay for broadband fees.
This is almost unimaginable. Today, the Internet, like air, water and electricity, is a part of work and life. What’s more, the main target group of eggshell apartments is white-collar workers, who can’t live without the Internet.
Is broadband hard to beat? According to the official website of China Mobile, users can enjoy 100m Aurora broadband with a minimum monthly consumption of no less than 58 yuan, and upgrade to 200m, 300m and 500m at 88 yuan, 108 yuan and 158 yuan. As a large scale long-term apartment brand, eggshell apartment can get a lower discount. Even this money can’t be paid, which shows how bad the situation is.
Paper can’t hold fire. With the arrival of the new year’s Eve, the crisis has intensified. The cleaning, maintenance and decoration workers who have been busy for more than half a year have not been paid, and they have also begun to join the debt collection team. The new tenants who have just checked in ask themselves how long they can live on social media.
Of course, under the crisis, the share price of eggshell apartment was also in a frenzy. After November 2, the stock price of eggshell apartment completely fell to the bottom. At the lowest point, it was only $1.27. In less than a year, it dropped 89% of the issue price, which was only 9% of the peak value.
The stock price performance of eggshell apartment since its listing, the picture is from snowball.
Although eggshell apartment posted a micro blog on November 16: “thank you for your concern and support, we are not bankrupt and will not run away! Please don’t believe in rumors and spread them! ” But bankruptcy and runaway have become the most common guess of most people about the future fate of eggshell apartment.
Can eggshell bring back the dead?
While a large number of victims wanted to cry without tears, the price of eggshell apartment suddenly staged a myth of Jedi rebound in the last two days, soaring 264% in two days. It can be said that there is sea water on one side and fire on the other.
It is rumored that I love my family and free house are discussing the purchase of eggshell apartment. There is a strong possibility that the media will make a final decision, and some details that make people think about it are attached. Some investors who miss out on Weilai automobile even regard eggshell apartment as the next Weilai.
However, eggshell apartment is not Weilai car after all. On the one hand, Weilai has the light of Tesla, on the other hand, it also depends on itself. The performance of ES6 is OK; on the other hand, eggshell apartment is different. Self rescue is completely out of play. All the hope is on the white knight, and the uncertain factors are too big.
Sure enough, these rumors were quickly slapped in the face, and the object of the scandal has left the relationship. Even if I love my family, which is the highest voice, I still have a big stall to clean up. There is no time to be the dish collector of eggshell apartment.
In the semi annual report, I love my family to disclose that from January to June this year, the company’s long-term rental apartment brand Xiangyu has been actively reducing the bad inventory and clearing out the housing resources whose rent price deviates greatly from the market. By the end of June, 253000 units were under management nationwide, 8% less than the 276000 units at the end of last year.
The frequent explosion of long-term apartments has awakened the industry. I love my family clearly stated in the third quarterly report: “we do not blindly pursue short-term hot spots and scale growth without quality, create a life scene that is more in line with the needs of the public to rent houses, return to the source of life, serve every landlord and tenant attentively, delicately manage the source of each suite, and maintain the efficient matching of supply and demand and safe and controllable cost.”
It is worth noting that most of the houses in eggshell apartments were purchased at high prices in the previous house grabbing war. It is precisely the products that I love my family to eliminate in the first three quarters. This fact further reduces the possibility of trading.
In addition, even if I love my family and have the idea of expansion, I’m still a little unable to do it at present. In the first three quarters of 2020, I love my family’s accumulated revenue of 6.751 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.3% over the same period of last year, and a net profit of 244 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60%. As of September 30, I love my family’s monetary capital is 3.495 billion yuan, which is far from the purchase of eggshell apartment.
According to public information, eggshell apartments have accumulated losses of more than 6 billion yuan, and the potential debt is totally bottomless. If this money burning machine is to resume normal operation, it is likely to need to invest 8 billion to 10 billion yuan, and any smart business will not easily wade into this muddy water.
377000 tenants on the streets?
I watched him rise to the Zhu tower, watched him feast his guests, and saw his building collapse. In this crisis, the biggest loss is not the tens of thousands of hard-earned cleaning, landlords, maintenance workers, decoration workers, nor the partners who are owed more than 10 million yuan, but the vast number of tenants.
As of the end of March this year, eggshell apartment business covers 13 cities, with 419000 apartments in operation. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen accounted for more than half of the total, while other cities accounted for 212 000. According to 90% occupancy rate, eggshell apartment has 377000 users.
In addition to the rent, the eggshell apartment will charge 8% service fee and other fees. On the whole, the average rent is about 1800 yuan to 2000 yuan. Since the annual payment system is generally adopted by customers to pay rent, if the average remaining lease period of six months is taken as the average, about 5 billion yuan (including one month’s deposit) of the user’s fund will be set in the eggshell apartment, far higher than the level of small yellow cars.
All sorts of signs show that such a large amount of money is probably running out. Once the eggshell apartment collapses, the owner can take back the house immediately with the lessee’s breach of contract, and the loss is only one to three months’ rent, but 377000 tenants will be reduced to paying high rent but no room to live in.
Since last year, long-term apartments have been exploding, and the current playing method has been clearly proved to be a big hole.
In the eyes of a senior real estate practitioner, long rental apartment is a very simple business model. This business model was originally a low-cost rental from the landlord, and then rented out at a high price. This is model 1. However, many companies have made some changes in this model, which turns to rent from the landlord at a low price and then rent out at a low price. This is model 2.
Some of the more daring companies have turned it into model 3: high prices come in from landlords, rent out at low prices, and still insist on making cash flow. In order to control more funds, traders cooperate with some financial institutions to help the tenants to obtain loans so as to collect one-year rent at one time, but monthly or quarterly payment is adopted at the landlord side. There is no doubt that such games are unlikely to last from the start.
The rent loan model has brought huge cash flow to zhongchanglong’s apartment, and it has also buried the thunder to be exploded. The picture is from China Foundation news.
The practitioner believes that the vast majority of long-term apartments in the market are using model 3, while only a small number of companies with conscience are using model 1 or model 2. Many players are willing to rent for themselves, but they are willing to rent for themselves.
There is a question on Zhihu, which specifically discusses “why many people complain about eggshell apartments while staying in eggshell apartments for a long time and refuse to move away”. A total of 118 answers were written down from tenants, employees and onlookers. Many tenants admit that they are looking comfortable and shiny for the long-term apartment. But behind many tempting appearances, there is no free lunch. This sentence will never go out of fashion.
(statement: This article only represents the author’s point of view, not Sina’s position.)