Will 5g mobile phones and package fees be cheaper and cheaper?

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Editor’s note: This article comes from WeChat official account “IT times” (ID:vittimes), author: Wang Xin.
China has the largest 5g user group in the world, and Shanghai has the largest 5g user group in China.
At present, the price of 5g packages of the three major telecom operators in China is temporarily stable at more than 100 yuan / month, which is far lower than that in developed countries such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea. For operators, 5g message, video RBT…… In addition to the package, there is a trillion market.
With more than 600000 base stations and 160 million 5g connected users, China has the largest 5g network and 5g user group in the world. Shanghai’s 5g construction scale is at the first level in China and the first camp in the world. By the end of August this year, the number of 5g package users in Shanghai reached 6.17 million, ranking first in China.
The following question is: will the largest 5g network promote China to become the largest, most creative and competitive 5g consumer market in the world?
The answer is yes. In 5g era, China’s catching up and surpassing will be all-round, not only in technology, ecology and application, but also in the consumer side. 5g consumption will play the most important incremental role in the development of information consumption, and it is also the key to narrow the gap of per capita information consumption between China and foreign developed countries.
On the other hand, 5g consumption is driven by the consumption of 5g mobile phone, and 5g consumption is driven by unknown consumption.
01 5g hardware market
Mobile phone is the preferred carrier for most people to access 5g, which makes 5g mobile phone the first target of 5g consumption. At the same time, smart watches, bracelets, VR, smart glasses and even self driving cars and other new 5G terminals will bring more imagination to the 5G hardware consumer market.
5g mobile phones will be widely used next year
After Apple’s iPhone 12 was officially launched, all major mobile phone manufacturers in the world have started 5g mode. 5g mobile phone is becoming the main force in 5g consumer market.
Photography / Feng Chengjie
China has the world’s most mature, efficient and largest mobile terminal R & D and manufacturing industry chain, and is also the largest consumer market for 5g mobile phones.
According to the data of China Academy of communications and communications, in September 2020, the domestic market shipped 13.99 million 5g mobile phones, accounting for 60% of the total number of mobile phones shipped in the same period; 26 new 5g models were listed, accounting for 44.8% of the total number of new mobile phones on the market in the same period. In Shanghai, the number is even higher. A salesman of Huawei’s flagship store on Nanjing East Road told reporters, “of course, 5g is chosen! Most people will buy 5g phones. ”
Tuyuan / China Academy of communications and communications
In the Chinese market, domestic mobile phone brands are the absolute driving force for 5g consumption, with a market share of more than 92%. At present, Huawei, Xiaomi, oppo and vivo have released 5g mobile phones with almost full price range. Recently, with the hot pre-sale of Huawei’s apple new machines, 5g replacement wave is expected to promote the consumption and upgrading of smart phones.
According to the report “China’s smart phone brands in the world” released by Puyin international, the global 5g smartphones of Chinese brands will be shipped to 159 million units in 2020, 346 million units in 2021 and 509 million units in 2022, respectively. This figure means that 5g mobile phones will be popularized in the coming 2021. After the 4G terminal inventory is exhausted, most new buyers will 5g phone will be selected.
Pan terminal becomes x variable
For the wearable, VR and other new 5g terminals, they are not new entrants to the market. They have been dormant for a period of time, waiting patiently for the opportunity to become popular overnight.
In Shanghai, more and more VR experience stores have sprung up on the streets, with racing cars, shooting and 4D movies in full bloom. However, this does not mean that Shanghai consumers will immediately accept it. The initiative of 5g consumption will always be in the hands of consumers who rely on experience voting.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia has opened up a new era of interaction between telecommuting and remote consumers, according to KPMG 2020 technology innovation report. All enterprises have increased their investment in VR. No one expected that the sharp weapons in the hands of game players are showing their charm faster in the enterprise market.
In the white paper on VR industry research, research and Analysis Agency IDC predicts that the commercial VR market will continue to grow in the next few years. By 2024, the scale of China’s commercial VR market will reach 92.18 billion, about 3.8 times that of 2020. Education, retail, manufacturing, construction and service industries will become the main force of VR market.
Picture source / IDC
Wearable devices and smart watches are potential entrances to the massive 5g market.
According to IDC’s quarterly tracking report on China’s wearable device market in the second quarter of 2020, China’s basic wearable devices (wearable devices that do not support third-party applications) will ship 22.24 million units in the second quarter of 2020, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and that of intelligent wearable devices will be 4.35 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%. From the data, it is not difficult to find that the differences in the definition of intelligent wearable devices still dominate the market, and the wearable market has not entered the 5g era with higher costs, which also affects its potential in the 5g consumer market.
Picture source / IDC
In the future, only a blooming terminal ecology can sustain a broader 5g consumer market, and more types of 5g hardware mean more types of adaptive applications and ecology. 5g hardware is still the cornerstone of 5g consumption.
02 traffic consumption: inside and outside the package
Traffic consumption is an unavoidable topic in 5g development. Buying a 5g mobile phone and running a 5g package is the basic standard configuration of 5g life. When hundreds of millions of users complete 5g migration and start using 5g package, where is the increase in 5g consumption?
“Smooth transition” 5g package
Will the price of 5g package increase? Of course not.

Wen Ku, a spokesman for the Ministry of industry and information technology and director of the Department of information and communications development, said earlier this year that it would continue to accelerate the construction of 5g network, and promote telecom operators to gradually reduce the tariff level of traffic and credit purchase by optimizing package settings, so as to drive 5g consumption.
The Ministry of industry and information technology has made it clear that it will continue to promote the reduction of package traffic charges and thus stimulate the 5g consumer market. At present, the price of 5g packages of China’s three major telecom operators has temporarily stabilized at more than 100 yuan / month. In the business hall of a telecom operator in Shanghai, the staff definitely told the reporter: “the lowest 5g package also needs 129 yuan, there is no cheaper one.”
However, the overall 5g tariff still shows a gradual downward trend, and for mature home users, the cost of upgrading 5g package is the lowest, only a few to ten yuan, or even a smooth transition to 5g free of charge.
Not only that, the three major telecom operators have also filled a large number of applications in 5g packages, which has also saved consumers’ Internet living expenses in disguise. At present, the domestic 5g tariff is in the middle and low level in the world, which is far lower than that in developed countries such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea. Objectively speaking, 5g package will not increase the consumption burden of communication users.
Fu Liang, a senior Telecom analyst, believes that the current 5g package is still in the transitional period, and operators may introduce a more flexible new price service system in the fourth quarter, “including both high-priced 5g packages and low-cost versions, so as to attract more users.”
In the future, operators still need to rely on time and huge user base to gradually reduce the cost pressure brought by 5g network investment. However, in the long run, the tariff system of 5g package will not be more expensive than that in 4G era, at least in terms of price. It is worth mentioning that the price distribution of telecom operators is more flexible nationwide, and 5g tariff in some inland areas will decline faster than that in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
Trillions market outside the package
According to the data, as of the end of September, the number of 5g package users of China Mobile reached 113.592 million, and that of China Telecom was 64.8 million. Although China Unicom has not yet released the number of 5g package users, the industry generally believes that the number of 5g package users may be slightly lower than that of China Telecom. Roughly estimated, the number of 5g package users in China has exceeded 200 million.
How to improve the ARPU value (monthly average income) of each 5g user is the same problem faced by the three major operators. However, there is no room for the basic package and traffic tariff to rise. The “non basic package” revenue has become the blue ocean of diversified innovation of operators’ revenue.
At present, telecom operators have several choices within the line of sight, such as 5g message, video RBT and so on. Among them, the video RBT seems to be the upgraded version of RBT more than 10 years ago, and the service has made operators earn a lot of money.
5g message is regarded as 5g form of SMS. After 2015, due to the popularity of wechat and other mobile social tools, SMS was once put into the “cold palace”. With the rise of industry applications, after 2018, SMS business was booming again, reaching 750 billion in that year alone, and more than nine Chengdu were industry SMS, which greatly strengthened the industry’s confidence in the application of 5g messages in the industry.
Du Chengxin, general manager of 5g message operation Department of China Telecom Value-added Service Center, believes that there are three prospects for 5g news in the future: first, it may become the largest AI intelligent application field in China; second, it may become the most convenient intelligent search service platform; third, it may become the most abundant digital and information consumption platform. “The three operators have built a transmission scale of 40 billion in 10 years With the development of short message service in the industry, 5g message may bring business opportunities of 100 billion income. In the next decade, after the popularization of terminals and the maturity of AI, it will be a trillion level opportunity for the ecological chain. ”
Reporter notes: “the fourth consumption era” will come overnight
In the fourth consumption era written by Japanese writer mitsuzawa, it is clearly divided into different periods for consumption upgrading: first, in the era of consumption, commercial forms began to take shape, and department stores rose in big cities; second, in the era of consumption, the division of labor between the manufacturing, channel and brand ends was clear, and a large number of shopping malls and supermarkets were enclosed; third, in the era of consumption, individuals were taken as the unit, and consumption was service-oriented Fourth, in the era of consumption, consumption is divided into several groups, and consumption returns to rationality (return to nature and high-quality consumption demand), and new channels are emerging.
Undoubtedly, 5g consumption belongs to the “fourth consumption era”, but when will a new consumption era with consumption returning to rationality and returning to nature come true? How far is a consumption city like Shanghai from the “fourth consumption era”?
Maybe the opportunity lies in the market increment and unknown possibility of “non mobile phone” and “non package”. In the 3G and 4G era, the industry has never successfully predicted the precedent of new killer application. “Black horse” finally shines in the wind of the times and is fully integrated into daily life. Where is the “dark horse” of 5g consumption hidden? We don’t know.
But it doesn’t matter, just as you never know when a baby will have its first baby tooth, or when the autumn leaves turn golden overnight, the change is casual, but it is definitely faster, more sudden and more gratifying than you expected.
Brief introduction of main creators
Author / IT Times reporter Wang Xin
Editor / kicker
Typesetting / Feng Chengjie