Welcome to the wechat subscription number of chuangshiji
By Li Yonghua
Source: mantis Finance (ID: tanglangfin)
“Take advantage of Didi’s downfall”, “Didi’s tight, Didi’s tight”, “Didi’s falling down, Didi’s full”, “picking up leaks and dribs” The main hitchhiker is facing a wave of criticism and ridicule before it seems to be on the throne of “China’s first share of shared travel”.
From the perspective of complete commercial value and market logic, these criticisms and ridicules can not be said to be unreasonable. However, the extremely special industry background of hitchhiking determines that it can not simply “talk about business”. In the tide of the Internet, this may be one of the few areas with its own special development rules.
This rule is that supervision priority.
To treat the development of free riding business, to some extent, we should put all market related factors in the secondary position, and take supervision and compliance as the first priority, so as to see the development of free riding business more truly.
On the basis of this perspective, it becomes more understandable that Dida has been playing the banner of “true free ride” to deal with all kinds of criticism and ridicule. However, the “true ride” can not make Dida feel at ease.
Dida can be listed on the market is not picking up the “leakage”?
After the didi hitchhiker accident in 2018, in addition to criticizing Didi, many people also paid attention to Dida. Recently, Dida Hong Kong stock exchange applied for IPO submission forms, which made the seemingly natural logic that “Didi’s high market share is caused by Didi’s downline suspension” appears in many articles.
Even the ticking prospectus seems to prove this:
It can be seen that the time point of Dida Hitchhiker’s development coincides with that of Didi’s downline rectification. The two sides are typical of the relationship of ebb and flow.
Only from the perspective of pure commercial market logic, Dida seems to have picked up Didi’s leakage. A strong competitor has fallen, a large number of users have come to visit, and its performance has grown rapidly. We media’s “sincere editorial department” bluntly believes that Dida “has picked up the first position in the free ride because of no competitors”.
However, if we look at the particularity of the hitchhiker industry, Dida is certainly because didi got off the shelves and got a great market “opportunity”, but it can not be said that this is a kind of “pick-up leak”.
Travel is a market under strong supervision, not supervision in a strong market. The ranking problem determines that many business analysis is invalid. Compliance first, safety first, supervision first. All innovation and operation can only be within the rules and framework.
After the vicious incident, Didi was offline, but didi was not offline. This can only show that Dida’s practice conforms to the essential requirement of “supervision first” in this field. However successful didi was in business, it may not belong to or belong to this market.
Two restaurants are open together. One is prosperous but relies on some illegal means, while the other is small and follows the rules. After the food safety accident of the current one is banned, you can’t say that the latter is “leakage”, because the former should not have existed in the market, and the diners in this area should have eaten in a restaurant that follows the food safety standards.
Further, after Didi’s exit, the vacancy in the market does not belong to Dida, but to all the players who put regulation in the first place. Dida with the flag of “true free ride” only represents that this type of player “takes back” the market, which is the fundamental source of Dida’s chance.
In retrospect, the first demand for compliance under strong supervision is particularly obvious from the very beginning of the hitchhiker business.
In January 2014, Beijing launched the guidance on passenger car sharing in Beijing, which is one of the first government voices on the legal operation of free riding vehicles. In 2016, the voice of the government rose to the national level, and the guiding opinions of the general office of the State Council on deepening reform and promoting the healthy development of the taxi industry
At the end of 2016, Shanghai promulgated and implemented the implementation opinions on standardizing the city’s private car carpooling trip. In September of the next year, Dida completed the filing in Shanghai traffic management office;
On March 1, 2017, Hangzhou Transportation Bureau issued the first private car sharing information service platform in China for the government record, the object of which is Dida hitchhiker;
In September 2018, a number of ministries and commissions carried out a nationwide special safety inspection of online car hailing and free riding platform companies;
In the following two years, various kinds of free riding vehicle industry seminars have been launched in various places, industry standard research and industry consensus have been emerging, and landmark industry achievements such as the West Lake consensus, Zhuhai action plan, and hitchhiker green travel declaration have emerged, and the legislative level of norms has been in sight.
To sum up, almost all the supervision points to one point – to prevent illegal operation in the name of free riding. This is also the core issue that Dida pays attention to when he emphasizes his “true free riding” on various occasions.
After the stewardess case in 2018, the Ministry of transport issued nine commentators’ articles, the main content of which was to criticize didi for organizing large-scale illegal operation in the name of free ride. The commentators believed that this would “seriously endanger public safety”; 6 departments interviewed 8 online car Hailing platforms with distinct themes, and it was strictly prohibited to engage in illegal operation with hitchhikers.
This is also confirmed in the dripping sound. In April 5, 2019, the official account of the driverless public car, a letter to everyone, is the first task to “return to the essence of the ride and make every effort to resist illegal operation”.
Dida’s “real free ride” is based on the concept of clearing away illegal operation and forming a separation from Didi. Through pricing and product rules, more vehicle operators are attracted to receive orders, and drivers on the platform conduct illegal operations for profit-making purposes, which is called “fake free ride”, while ensuring “true ride for car owners and passengers” and “low pricing to let owners not” For the purpose of profit-making, it is the “true free ride” mode that Dida thinks.
This is roughly the same as Cai Tuanjie, deputy director of the transport service department of the Ministry of transport, in an interview with CCTV, that is, a legal free ride should meet two core requirements: to meet the travel needs of car owners, to share part of the travel cost or to help each other free of charge.
This also shows that didi has “planted” its roots in the past because of illegal operation, supervision and non-compliance, and malignant cases are the appearance of offline, but its essence is that the platform has carried out illegal operation in the name of free riding, thus causing systematic security risks.
Therefore, maybe it should be said that the “leakage” left by didi is the “leakage” of illegal operation and systematic security risks in the name of free ride. This leakage is the “leakage” that leads to the shutdown and offline of a large platform required by strong supervision. This “leakage” is the “leakage” which is still palpitating even when the hitchhiker is mentioned If it is the “leakage”, then the end will naturally be shutdown and rectification, but it does not.
Of course, has the final say that “really good luck” is not a tick, and the criteria for judging operation are still being formulated at the regulatory level. The various seminars in these years have been discussed in many specific standards. For example, in August 2020, the second China healthy development legal forum for Hefei’s car industry tried to crack down on the scientific cost allocation rules and strict regulations. To distinguish between compliance free riding and illegal operation.
Gao Qinwei, a professor at the Law School of Sun Yat sen University, said that at present, there are more than 40 normative documents on free riders issued by city governments across the country. Although they all emphasize supervision and have a lot of consistent contents, there are still many differences. For example, the restrictions on the issuance of hitchhikers and the number of times of delivery are different, and they need to be unified.
Furthermore, the improvement of relevant laws and regulations also proves that the fight conclusion of the free ride market should not be the victory of Dida “lucky” and “leak detection”, but rather the victory of compliance operation under strong supervision.
What kind of business does Dida want to do and can do?
Can we solve the industry problem of “safety” absolutely and once and for all? Of course not.
As Dida wrote in her prospectus, “Dida can’t guarantee that there will be no crime related to free ride service in the future. If it happens, the free ride market will be adversely affected”. Naturally, Dida does not rule out Dida.
In fact, in a society with diversified personalities, it can not be said that certain incidents can be avoided even if it is true to take along the way and share the oil fee. However, in the face of accidental incidents, compliance and supervision are the fundamental premise for a platform to prevent operational risks and fulfill the responsibility of the safety subject. It is also the fundamental premise and guarantee for the platform to perform its duties and responsibilities in case of safety accidents Obstacles.
Dida has set up a series of access screening rules and mechanisms for its own “real free ride”. It reveals that the ratio of the number of registered and certified car owners is 2:1. The strict audit can give you a glimpse.
In addition, Dida also tried to “dissuade” those operating vehicles that were lucky to pass the screening from the pricing system. After six years of running in, Dida thought that the reasonable price of free ride should be 50% of the local professional operating vehicle pricing level, and it should be a buy it now price without congestion charges, night charges and other operating expenses. This pricing can make the owner of the free ride not be profitable but willing to take it Take others. In addition, there are matching strategies such as registering common routes and requiring fixed routes.
This unlimited approach to supervision and compliance will significantly promote the safety of free riding vehicles when almost all accidents occur on illegal vehicles.
But then another question arises: what kind of business do you want to do?
Different from many peers, Dida’s prospectus shows that its net profit from 2017 to 2019 is rmb-97.02 million, – 1.07 billion and 170 million, and has reached RMB 150 million in the first half of 2020.
Before and after 2017, when Dida was suppressed by didi for a long time and was in adversity, even when the scale of users stopped growing, Dida did not give up the banner of “true free ride”, and has always refused to expand the platform by “opening the gate and releasing water” to allow operating vehicles to enter.
To some extent, from the perspective of pure market logic, adhering to the non market logic with regulatory compliance as the top priority will lead to a typical “small and beautiful” phenomenon. Players can achieve “a profitable business”, but it seems that they can not “do a big business”. The gap between Dida’s 180 million registered users and Didi’s 550 million registered users can also be seen 。
As far as Dida is concerned, the realized “making a profitable business” is obviously not the ultimate goal, but “making a big business” is facing the “real favorable wind” of “self restraining”. In this case, tob is the best way to expand its business.
First, in terms of the service of taxi enterprises, Dida, like didi and other players, tries to carry out digital transformation on these traditional and root based enterprises. However, due to the “real smooth wind”, Dida without conflict of interest seems to be able to achieve a real “reconciliation” with taxis in this respect, and there will be no fundamental contradiction between to B and to C. In the prospectus, Dida emphasizes the development of new business of “smart taxi”. It has opened up the so-called “data connection among passengers, drivers, meters, ceiling lights, vehicles, taxi companies and management departments” through “calling taxi assistant” and “smart code”. Now, it has carried out smart taxi cooperation with Xi’an, Shenyang, Xuzhou and Nanjing 。
However, Didi’s service taxi enterprises are more of a fight between the left and the right, such as defensive rather than enterprising. Looking back, Didi promised not to make express and special cars before Dida. Together with the current “true smooth wind”, they have bypassed the competition with taxis and paved the way for to B.
Second, in terms of diversified profit models, because “zhenshunfeng” has been approved by the regulatory authorities, Dida can carry out more business cooperation on this basis, for example, cooperation between Dida and Weilai, inviting the owners of Weilai to join the hitchhiking camp. On the one hand, it can let the owners of Weilai carry out “green” to the end, and on the other hand, let more people know about Weilai automobile in the process of carpooling.
In addition, a noteworthy fact is that during the epidemic period, that is, in the first half of 2020, Dida’s revenue increased by 66.25% year-on-year. The reason is not difficult to understand. Out of the fear of public transport, taking private hitchhiking, especially cross city travel, has become the choice of more people. This can only be based on the car owners taking along the road and not “one to many” operation resulting in crowd contact On the basis of.
If didi is good, what should Dida do?
In March 2019, there was a media interview with Dida co-founder Li Jinlong, who said that because Dida always insisted on being a “real ride” rather than a “fake ride”, he was not afraid of his rivals’re launching.
Today, after realizing that illegal operation is the first requirement, Didi’s ride back online has been trying to move closer to Dida’s “real ride”. However, it remains to be seen whether it will change in the future. Once didi holds a large number of users and plays with the “true ride” parallel to Dida (which is also a necessity under supervision), Dida can still say “no” as it used to The answer is obviously not.
In the past, there were dimensional advantages, so we were not afraid of quantitative differences, but now the dimensional advantages may be filled and leveled, and Dida may have new troubles. If didi is good, it means that Dida will have a stronger opponent in the free ride market “taken back” by the players who put regulation first after 2018.
Dida may still have some advantages. For example, Didi has missed the best window period for the development of hitchhikers. The user’s mental cognition established in two years has built a certain moat for Dida; for example, Didi’s sunken product Hua piggy was repeatedly stopped for suspected violation of regulations, which showed Didi’s impulse to break through regulatory rules when seeking scale and expansion This foreshadows the swing of “real ride” and “pseudo ride”.
But in any case, there is still a big gap in the number of users. In the past, Dida relied on its own banner of “real free ride” to gain opportunities. Now, it may have to fight against “real free ride” at the industry level. This will be a more exciting stage for the online car Hailing industry, and the result will also determine the next development direction of Dida and even the whole free ride industry.