Original title: stock price of film companies after National Day falls: uncertainty is still hard to solve at the end of the year
The National Day holiday is over, and the challenge of the film market is just beginning.
According to the preliminary statistics of the state film special funded office, the national day schedule (October 1-8) in 2020 will bring 3.952 billion yuan to the box office of the national film, attracting nearly 100million people to watch the film.
Among them, the total box office of the film “my hometown” is 1.87 billion yuan; that of jiangziya is 1.384 billion yuan; the box office of the winner is 360million yuan; the box office of the rush pioneer is 164million yuan; the box office of “home at one point” is 100million yuan.
The results still have a gap from the previous year. Last year, the National Day box office reached 4.466 billion yuan during the 7 days of holiday last year, and the number of people watching the film was also declining. After the outbreak, 75% of the patients were on the seat or the influencing factors, but the degree of influence was limited. Reporters in Beijing, many of the top cinemas to watch the film, noted that, under the limit of the occupancy rate, the cinema is mostly closed front non gold seats, the front seats have always been not good to sell. According to the data of Lighthouse, the national day rate of last year was 36%, and that of this year was 26.93%.
Of course, except last year, this year’s National Day file is a very good achievement in the same period of film history, and it is quite different from the third place in history (the box office in 2017 is 2.656 billion yuan).
What reassures the industry is that nearly 100 million people watch the shadow, which means that the fear of watching the shadow has been minimized after the epidemic. Earlier, several film directors told 21st century economic reporters that the most worried was that the audience dared not come to the cinema, which would affect the rhythm of the film.
Industry people are relieved, but capital markets are still skeptical of the film industry. As of October 9, the first producer of my hometown Beijing culture, reported 7.99 yuan, down 4.31%; jiangziya’s main producer, ray media, reported 14.40 yuan, down 13.57%; the winner producer was happy with media, which ended at HK $1.37, down 0.72%; the Chinese film producer of “rush pioneer” reported 14.11 yuan, up slightly by 0.14%. Before the outbreak, the company mainly operated the film The source of revenue is the distribution business; Alibaba film, the main producer of home at one point, reported HK $1.15, down 3.36%.
Each basic stock price has its own reasons, but the most important period after the collective floating green, there are common factors.
Movie giants, they have to move forward in uncertainty.
Looking for certainty
The market is short of film companies, to a large extent, because of its uncertainty.
This year, the National Day file staged a startling “counter attack”. The unstoppable animation Jiang Ziya in the early stage suffered a decline in public praise. On the third day, the main theme film “I and my hometown” was focused on poverty alleviation, which was surpassed and finally opened nearly 500million yuan.
Jiang Ziya is expected to be produced by ray media for its “evil child of Nezha” before. My hometown and I are supervised by Zhang Yimou. Ninghao, Xuzheng, chensicheng, Yan Fei and pengdamao, Dengchao and yubaimei are respectively directing five comedy stories. To a large extent, the explosion of Nezha’s devil child came down to the world, lifted the light to the high price and opened up the distance from a number of film companies.
But the most important reason is that the story is not successful. Jiangziya is a beautiful and magnificent picture, and the production team is sincere. Technically, it can be called the first rank in China, even more than the evil child of Nezha. But the problem with Jiang Ziya is that too much is wanted to express, which leads to the plot being too compact and the turning point appears stiff.
“I and my hometown” are the opposite. Unlike the “Jiang Ziya” super thousand luxury team, which took years to build, my hometown and I are the puzzle story collection of several big directors, which is fast-paced and smooth, and it is just right to impress people. It is difficult to say that the film is a representative work of all directors, but the film is very complete and suitable for the time.
The bigger gap is the rate of return. The relatively short and fast “I and my hometown” even received a lot of subsidies. Beijing Cultural financial report shows that the film has been supported by the special fund of 13 million yuan of excellent film of the State Film Bureau and 10 million yuan of publicity and culture guidance fund of Beijing Cultural Development Center.
On the night of October 9, Beijing Culture issued a notice that as of October 8, the revenue from “my hometown and I” was about 80million yuan-100 million yuan, and at that time, the film had accumulated box office revenue of about 1.871 billion yuan.
In view of the high investment in animation, Jiang Ziya director chengteng admitted to the outside world, and did not expect the box office in particular, “I hope the investors will not lose money.”. In this case, there will undoubtedly be an impact on light performance. In fact, light has regarded animation as a fist product, and has invested more than 20 upstream and downstream animation industry chain companies. The loss of jiangziya will make the outside world doubt the long-term value of light.
There are many reasons for lighting layout animation. This company started from TV. It has not been as good as Huayi Brothers and Zhongying in the film circle. Moreover, the animation industry itself is a long-chain market, such as the success of IP building and more controllable. Taking Disney as an example, in fy2018, its media network and film and television entertainment accounted for 58 percent of revenue, and theme parks, copyright and publishing, games and retail and other accounts for 42 percent, including theme parks, copyright and publishing and games, retail and other revenue of $20.3 billion, US $3.1 billion and $1.6 billion in fy18, respectively. From the perspective of Japanese animation industry market, according to the annual calculation of user payment amount of animation market calculated by Japanese Animation Association, the scale of animation commercialization market in 2017 was 523.2 billion yen, accounting for 24% of the scale of Japanese animation industry.
The loss of jiangziya is not an animation problem. For light, animation has a historical advantage, but it needs to be solved. How to persuade capital, more importantly, it is relatively controllable to make the project commercial return controllable. After all, animation investment is too large.
The semi annual report shows that in the current period, the light revenue is 259million yuan, with a year-on-77.86%; the net profit is 20.572 million yuan, which is -80.46% year-on-year; the balance of cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period is 1.356 billion yuan, and the same period last year is RMB 1.043 billion.
Although “my hometown and I” is very popular, the cultural fundamentals of Beijing, the producer behind it, are not as good as the light. The financial report shows that the company involved in all kinds of disturbances had a revenue of 5.6485 million yuan in the first half of the year, which was – 91.37% year-on-year; the net loss was 64.2983 million yuan, 39.87% year-on-year; the balance of cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period was only 44.4036 million yuan, compared with 218 million yuan in the same period last year.
“No pieces to arrange”
As far as capital is concerned, there are all kinds of problems in the back producers or the films themselves in the head films Jiang Ziya and me and my hometown. It is really difficult to be optimistic about them.
The so-called “Hometown” and “me” is the basic problem behind the film. In fact, it is the ability of the producer to tell a good story. This kind of certainty is very difficult to understand and understand for the capital market.
On the other hand, the highlight period of the National Day has just passed, and the industry has begun to worry about the future “no piece to arrange.”.
Recently, cineworld, the UK’s largest and world’s second largest cinema operator, announced that it would suspend its operations in the UK and the us from October 8. Behind the closure of the giant is that the overseas epidemic situation remains unchanged. Previously, blockbusters such as “the black widow” and “the tragedy on the Nile” have already said that they will continue to be delayed. Hollywood will again face the situation of no films in the next two months, and the blockbusters will not be able to enter the Chinese market.
Without Hollywood blockbusters, domestic new blockbusters are relatively rare. Apart from the film “vajragawa” jointly directed by Guan Hu, Guo fan and Lu Yang, which is scheduled to be released on October 25, there was no blockbuster with special market appeal until December.
Blockbusters are interested in the Spring Festival. On October 9, “Chinatown detective 3” announced that it will file next year’s Spring Festival. In addition, a number of industry insiders told the 21st century economic report that many commercial blockbusters are trying to implement the schedule.
This has exacerbated the near future shortage. “No pieces to arrange, copy and paste every day.” The manager of the cinema is so funny, with bitterness.
Behind the film shortage is that the film companies themselves are stabilizing, and the essence is that they choose to shrink under the harsh living environment. It’s a death blow to the cinema.
“It’s just going to be there. There’s no choice.” Many people in Beijing said that they have been subsidizing the present with their savings.
According to the previous report released by top data, as of September 9, 2020, there are still 1807 cinemas with tickets issued last year in China, accounting for 15.79% of the total number of cinemas that have not returned to work. Among the cinemas that have not returned to work, more than 60% of the cinemas with an annual box office of less than 2 million yuan account for more than 60%.
(author: he Hongyuan, editor: Cao Jinliang)