Author: Qian Tongxin ▪ Quan Xiaoxing
Battery technology is the most important core technology of electric vehicles. Tesla’s “battery technology day” held on September 22, U.S. time, naturally attracted much attention. Just before the “battery day” was held, Tesla CEO musk suggested that the market should not overestimate the impact of “battery day”.
“Although there will be a major release that will have a long-term impact on Tesla’s heavy trucks such as semi, cybertruck and roadster, the products announced today will not be ready for mass production until 2022,” Musk said on the social networking site
Increase battery outsourcing
Tesla shares fell nearly 6% after trading on Monday. Musk also said Tesla plans to buy more batteries from suppliers such as Panasonic, LG and Ningde times, rather than less.
To this end, first finance reporter contacted battery suppliers of Tesla such as Ningde times, Panasonic motor and LG Chemical. All three companies refused to respond to the first financial reporter on Musk’s statement.
Ningde Times said at the previous annual investors’ meeting that Tesla’s self-produced batteries would not have a great impact on the company’s business. Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde times, said: “Tesla’s own battery technology route will not have an impact on it.” Ningde times shares rose 2.4% after opening on Tuesday and closed up 1.3%.
LG Chemical’s shares rose 1.91% at the end of September 22. According to Zheng Youzhen, an analyst at Daxin securities in South Korea, it is generally believed in the Korean industry that Tesla will release battery technology related to lithium iron phosphate batteries, which is not the main focus of Korean battery companies, so it will not affect the overall demand of Korean companies.
“We believe that Tesla’s upcoming long-life lithium iron phosphate battery will focus more on the commercial fields such as robotaxi that Tesla is planning, while in the private sector, the ternary lithium batteries of NCM and NCA series will still occupy the mainstream.” She said that lithium iron phosphate technology still needs to solve problems such as energy density in the future, and whether the long-life “super battery” can really enter the market needs to be verified in terms of safety and stability compared with the technology itself.
A foreign power battery industry personage who asked for anonymity told the first finance and economics reporter that from the sales volume of musk and Tesla, expanding the battery demand will become an inevitable choice. Under this background, Tesla, the leading enterprise, chooses to strengthen cooperation with existing battery factories. On the one hand, it will increase the demand of the industry, and at the same time, it will affect more auto companies that plan to produce their own batteries.
“At least, we can stay up late to watch battery day with a more relaxed and optimistic attitude.” The people said. He believes that battery day will become more occasions to show technical routes, which will also attract more potential investors and consumers to pay attention to the battery industry chain.
Battery capacity needs to be improved
Meanwhile, musk said Tesla also needs to boost its own battery capacity. “Even if our suppliers produce and supply batteries at the fastest rate, we need to act, otherwise we still expect a serious shortage of batteries beyond 2022,” he wrote
Tesla has been working hard to develop and produce batteries with higher energy density. Currently, the 21 mm diameter battery is used in the model 3 electric vehicle, and the industry speculates that Tesla is expected to double the diameter of the battery to 42mm.
The annual capacity of Tesla’s battery production line is expected to reach 1 MWh. However, industry insiders believe that the production of batteries is not Tesla’s specialty, especially the lack of manufacturing process and process for mass production of batteries, which at least means that Tesla will still rely on partners in the industry in the short term.
With the improvement of Tesla’s battery mass production scale, the company will be able to have more voice and bargaining power in the core battery components of electric vehicles. It was previously reported that LG revealed that Tesla had sent a signal to suppliers asking them to further cut costs and prices.
The market expects Tesla to be more likely to develop and produce a new type of battery, so as to have a greater voice in the core links of the industrial chain, so as to reduce its dependence on battery suppliers.
Conrad layson, a new energy vehicle research analyst at research firm autoforecast solutions, said: “many car manufacturers are looking for new ways to occupy the technical commanding heights of the electric vehicle market. If Tesla can customize its own batteries on demand without paying suppliers, it will be able to have greater control over the entire industry chain. ”
When talking about the constraints of batteries on the development of the electric vehicle industry, musk said that what really limits Tesla’s growth is the price of batteries. “The biggest problem that bothers me now is that our electric cars are not cheap enough,” he said at a recent earnings analyst meeting
Author: Qian Tongxin ▪ Quan Xiaoxing