“Wechat” of “huaxinchuang”
By Gong Jinhui
Source: Gong Jinhui (ID: gongjinhui2)
Recently, I read an article entitled “the last summer of ofo”, and learned that the bike that ofo tried last summer failed in just three months. This is undoubtedly a great blow to ofo, who is struggling to survive.
It should be noted that after the loss of capital support, the pile bike has become the last straw for ofo to stay on the bicycle sharing stage, and Davey, founder of ofo, has high hopes for it. However, contrary to our wishes, ofo still can’t play with a bicycle after all. This means that ofo will no longer be able to turn over in the bike sharing market and can only withdraw from the market.
Therefore, you can see that after finding the small yellow cars scattered in every corner, ofo operators cooperated with the waste factory to scrap them through bidding, and quoted a price of 25 yuan for each. At the beginning, the cost of a small yellow car put in by ofo was 260 yuan, but now it is less than 1 / 10 of the cost price. It seems that it is sold at a low price, which is very sad.
At the same time, ofo’s offices are getting smaller and more hidden, so that their employees sometimes can’t find them. What’s more embarrassing is that after the withdrawal of Xue Ding and Zhang Si, two co founders last year, Daiwei also stepped down from the office of ofo this year. The core business has nearly stopped, a large number of employees have been lost, and the founding teams have left one after another. All kinds of signs show that ofo is making a final clean-up, and there is no hope of reviving from the dead.
In the end, Dawei paid a heavy price for his youth, frivolity and obstinacy, and pushed the ofo founded by himself to a desperate situation. How willful and childish is the post-90s CEO? Two fatal mistakes he made are enough to illustrate.
1、 The relationship between ofo and the largest gold droplet
In November 2017, two major events occurred in ofo:
First, three senior executives of didi (including Fu Qiang, senior vice president of didi) announced their leave without warning. Of course, this is only an official statement. In fact, they were expelled by Dewey, which means that the relationship between ofo and didi has broken. There are a lot of rumors about why ofo and didi had a rift or even broke up with Didi. I will not express it for the time being.
The article “Dai Wei, Guan Wei is still the same” published by AI finance and economics news agency disclosed a detail. A person familiar with the matter disclosed that at that time, Fu Qiang and Dai Wei had a tough attitude. Dai Wei was infuriated. “The pride of the president of the student union of Peking University and the strength of the rich second generation’s superior conditions came up. He spent $1.5 billion not only to drive Fu Qiang away, but also to drive him away. He would rather not have money than develop rather than be angry.”
Note that US $1.5 billion refers to didi helping ofo to invest in Softbank in July 2017, provided that ofo enters didi system, sun Zhengyi meets Dawei and signs an investment letter of intent. It has to be said that Dewey is really stupid and impulsive to ignore the $1.5 billion he will receive in order to export gas, which is the most expensive in history. Although he privately approached sun Zhengyi afterwards, he still failed to recover the extremely important financing for ofo.
Second, ofo has been exposed to embezzle user deposits. After Fu Qiang was swept out of the door by Daiwei, it was not long before blue whale finance and economics revealed that the ofo capital chain was in crisis and began to embezzle user deposits to fill the gap. Although the ofo official denied it at the first time, it failed to dispel the doubts of the outside world.
One year later, a large number of users queued up to refund the deposit, and tens of millions of online users applied for refund of deposit. This fully shows that ofo has already embezzled the user’s deposit, and it is not a small amount. Its original response was completely self deception. Looking back, November 2017 was an important turning point in the fate of ofo. Since then, the trend of development has gone down sharply and gradually to cool.
If you look at these two pieces of news together, you will find that Dewey is an unqualified CEO, and his ambition has ruined ofo. Mingming fell into an embarrassing situation of extreme lack of money, but also tried to drive away the big shareholder Didi, indirectly lost the potential gold owner Softbank. He would not bow down to ask for help, and could not suffer any injustice, which led to the aggravation of the difficulties in the ofo capital chain.
In fact, if Daiwei doesn’t drive Fu Qiang out of a whim, Didi’s plan to buy ofo will probably go ahead smoothly. However, Daiwei made such a fuss, and the acquisition plan changed, but he did not completely break with Didi. At the beginning of 2018, Didi offered to buy ofo again. Daiwei also agreed, but he did not agree on the purchase price. He thought that Didi’s offer of $1.78 billion was too low, which was far from his expectation.
As a result, Daiwei rejected Didi’s second acquisition. But what he didn’t expect was that the ofo in 2018 was particularly difficult, especially in the second half of the year, when all kinds of bad news came one after another, including arrears of payment to suppliers, misappropriation of deposit, inability to pay wages, shrinking office space, etc., and so on, Dawei was trapped in a dilemma on all sides. Although there are various versions of Didi’s purchase of ofo from time to time, the ofo official denied it.
At this time, Dawei gradually realized that the road of ofo’s independent development was getting narrower and narrower, and it was necessary to find a strong supporter for safe landing. According to Didi, Didi has been rejected by GDI for many times because of its low value.
It is reported that Dai Wei has actively talked to Cheng weicha many times, but Didi’s terms are too humiliating, leading to the talks always ending in a bad mood. In other words, after Dawei refused Didi, Didi turned to vigorously develop his own green orange bicycle. Unexpectedly, the geomantic omen turned around in turn, and Dawei was also rejected by Didi. This was like a bolt from the blue for the dying ofo.
2、 Missed the merger of ofo and Moby at the end of 2017
In addition to being acquired by the travel giant Didi, ofo has another way out: merge with Moby, its biggest rival. As we all know, behind ofo and Mobai, there are investors with luxurious lineups. With the help of capital, they constantly attack cities and land, and they are also inseparable. The result of fierce fighting between the two sides is “killing 1000 enemies and losing 800”. Not only the small and medium-sized players are almost eliminated, only a few players are left in the market, but also make themselves in a state of loss. It will be difficult to make profits for a while.
Therefore, ofo and Mobai can only maintain their superficial prosperity by capital transfusion. When the capital attitude turns cold, they have to misappropriate the deposit to make a living. Profit seeking is the nature of capital. They can’t watch their promising investment targets lose money all the time. Instead, they hope to become industry giants after harvesting the market in the period of strategic expansion and quickly realize profits. The only option is the merger of ofo and Moby, and there is no other way.
If the ofo and Mobai continue to fight each other, it will not be good for both sides, but both sides will be hurt. In September 2017, ofo investor Zhu Xiaohu said that at present, ofo and Moby account for 95% of the total market share, and the investment volume has been over saturated. If you want to make a profit, then the merger of the two is reasonable. Three months later, he said another meaningful sentence. You can feel this:
“Any business combination is very complicated because there are many factors in it, including investors, entrepreneurs, shareholders and users. It is necessary to balance all kinds of voices. It is not so easy to balance many interests. This market has not yet reached the end of its tether to merge, which requires great wisdom and pattern of shareholders. When the war situation has become clearer, it will be meaningless to fight another war of attrition, which will cause great losses to both sides. Do you need to fight again? This is a good question. ”
In my opinion, Zhu Xiaohu’s statement is informative and has at least three meanings
1、 It is not easy to promote the merger of ofo and Moby. There are many obstacles to the merger of the two sides. It is true that it is very difficult for ofo and Moby to merge. Balancing the interests of all parties is undoubtedly the biggest problem. In particular, Alibaba and Tencent have different demands and are almost incompatible, which virtually complicates the situation and tests the decision-making wisdom of the two teams.
2、 Call on Ali and Tencent. “The market has not yet reached the end of its tether to merge, which requires shareholders to have great wisdom and pattern.” In translation, the battle between Mobai and ofo is not over, and no one has defeated anyone. Moreover, there is still a large space for market growth. However, the reality of burning money and making profits for a long time has forced both sides to seriously consider the merger, which requires great wisdom and pattern of shareholders. Obviously, they are shouting to Alibaba and Tencent, hoping that they can cooperate as much as possible in promoting the merger, rather than deliberately falling behind for their own sake.
3、 Efforts will still be made to facilitate the merger of Moby and ofo. Although the merger of ofo and Moby is very difficult, in order to maximize the interests of their respective teams, shareholders and users, Zhu Xiaohu strongly appeals to ofo and Moby to sit down and have a good discussion and discuss various feasible merger schemes acceptable to both sides, rather than continue to fight a senseless war of attrition, which eventually turns out to be a result of both sides’ unwillingness to see.
In fact, Zhu Xiaohu’s words from the bottom of his heart expressed the common aspiration of all ofo investors and even Moby investors, that is, to facilitate the merger of ofo and Moby, which is in line with the expectations of all parties. According to a Chinese entrepreneur, one ofo investor recalled that almost all shareholders supported the merger, and only David disagreed. The young entrepreneur assessed that his power might be weakened in the future, which he could not accept. This made the shareholders dissatisfied, complaining, “he put his rights above the rights and interests of all investors.”
For the ofo investors’ collective appeal and conscience advice, Daiwei seems not to be moved, “thank you very much for capital, which has helped the rapid development of enterprises, but capital also needs to understand the ideals and determination of entrepreneurs.” His statement not only makes the differences between the founding team of ofo and investors about the strategic direction of the company, but also makes the investors of ofo no longer hope for the merger of the two sides, or even completely give up hope.
Zhu Xiaohu has mentioned in a number of public occasions that the end of 2017 is the best time or even the only opportunity for the merger of ofo and Moby. However, the stubborn Davy’s obsession with independent development left him in a state of despair. The original merger case of the drama was stuck in his body, and almost reached an impasse. In January 2018, disheartened Zhu Xiaohu chose to cash out and sell his ofo shares to Ali and didi at a valuation of $3 billion, and has no relationship with Daiwei since then.
At the critical moment of ofo’s life and death, Dawei didn’t focus on the overall situation. Instead, he thought about how to save it, even at the expense of personal interests. Instead, he was nostalgic for his own power, regardless of the interests of investors, shareholders, employees, suppliers and other parties in the same boat. However, Dewey and all parties are in a community of interests. They are both prosperous and lose everything. When ofo falls into the dark moment, it is possible that the ship will capsize and people will die at any time.
At the end of 2017, after the merger of ofo and Moby was hopeless, Didi’s takeover offer was repeatedly rejected in 2018. Daiwei went further and further on the wrong path. Due to repeated mistakes, ofo missed out on the few self-help opportunities and finally fell into an endless abyss. The business world is so cruel, wrong step by step. Perhaps, the defeat of ofo today has been doomed, and the young Dai Wei is to blame.
Although today’s ofo is not completely cool, there are still more than 10 million users waiting for deposit refund, which is the heavy burden it can not bear. Meanwhile, ofo has been transformed into a shopping guide rebate platform after giving up the share bike business, but it has been flat and make complaints about its users. For example, a deposit of 99 yuan can be returned by using the cash back function, but users may have to spend tens of thousands of yuan on the platform.
This summer, ofo has come to an end, and the five-year commercial drama has come to an end. Goodbye, ofo! Maybe Dawei will start a new venture again, but the experience of ofo is doomed to become a disgraceful page that can never be erased, and can only carry forward with heavy load.
(statement: This article only represents the author’s point of view, not Sina’s position.)