Source: Economic Observer
Author: Liu Xiaolin
In just five months, Tesla, originally positioned as a catfish, has grown rapidly into a shark in China’s car market. This outcome is not unexpected, or it was predicted two years ago when Tesla signed the plot near the port in Shanghai.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia is a rare catalyst for the development of the new era, especially when the new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused a significant impact on the car market. In May, the sales volume of domestic model 3 exceeded 10000 for the second consecutive month, accounting for the first place in the sales volume of China’s new energy vehicle enterprises, and it has seized 17.7% of the market share. At the same time, with the strong support of China’s automobile market, Tesla’s market value has surpassed Toyota’s and become the world’s largest automobile enterprise. In the dark time of global car companies, Tesla ushered in its own bright moment.
However, although the image of “idols” has been transformed into “strength”, there are only a few disputes about Tesla, from the false speculation of “Tesla concept” in which xiuqiang shares seized 11 trading limits in succession at the beginning of the year to bullying complaints of “distribution reduction gate”, frequent price adjustment disputes and secret stealing investigations.
The revelry and bustle brought by Tesla is in sharp contrast to the slow recovery of China’s new energy vehicle market as a whole. Facing the double blow of the negative growth of vehicle market in 2019 and the impact of the epidemic in 2020, from the central government to the local government, the industrial policies related to new energy vehicles have been launched one after another. Dongfeng new infrastructure has put charging piles and new energy vehicles on the hot topic list one after another, but the heat of consumption is difficult to ignite, and the proportion of traditional brands in new energy vehicles is declining. At the same time, the crisis of capital chain break of new car manufacturing enterprises is frequently staged, and the cooperative default events emerge in endlessly. Of course, new cooperation attempts are also emerging.
With many uncertainties in the new energy market, Tesla’s industrial rolling, the survival screening of new car manufacturers, and the choice of new energy technology routes have to cause the industry to think again.
Tesla’s “lethality” in advance
It is not biased to say that Tesla will take the pace of China’s new energy vehicle market in the first half of 2020. Tesla was made in China in December 2019, and ranked fifth in the domestic new energy vehicle industry in January 2020 with the output of 2625 vehicles. Even the epidemic did not affect Tesla’s production and sales. As of May, model 3 has sold 30800 vehicles in China this year, of which the main sales volume is the domestic standard continuous upgrade model with the sales price of 2715500 yuan after subsidy.
Meanwhile, in the past five months, there have been many warnings that Tesla’s domestic products will bring fatal blow to local new energy vehicle brands. However, in the wind direction of breaking the regional protection and introducing foreign investment in a more open manner, this warning will not have any impact on Tesla’s strategy.
This “Tesla phobia” seems to permeate every node of the development of new energy vehicles, including after the introduction of a new version of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in April, the first reaction of many vehicle enterprises is not to be cheered by the continued extension of the subsidy, but to worry that the price threshold of “less than 300000 yuan” will not play a role in blocking Tesla, but may cause it to fall Price has a stronger impact on domestic brands. Only half a month later, Tesla started another round of car owners’ Crusade because of lowering the price.
Since March, Tesla has been on the topic list because of the auto driving hardware configuration reduction, continuous price reduction to cater to the new subsidy policy, frequent accidents and other controversial events. The only victory may be an interview with Tesla on the “configuration reduction door” by the Ministry of industry and information technology in March, but the final treatment of imported cars is not clear.
On the other hand, there are no absolute friends or enemies. In the business logic of taking interests as the right way, Tesla’s attraction in China has resulted in the “contradiction” phenomenon that one side is abusing its super national treatment while the other side is abusing its enthusiasm. Since January this year, driven by the production of domestic Tesla Model 3, demon stocks in the A-share market have appeared frequently. First, molding technology has been up and down for seven consecutive days because its overseas subsidiary received Tesla’s letter of intent six months ago. Then, xiuqiang shares gained 11 boards after the Spring Festival. The final truth is that there is uncertainty in whether to receive Tesla’s solar roof order.
From the perspective of consumers, under the consensus that “only Tesla is worth 300000 yuan of electric vehicles”, I love and hate Tesla as well. But Tesla seems to have the initiative all the time. The reason is that the products are in hand, and the competitiveness and influence are all there. This may also be the way for the policy level to face the convenience of Tesla, so that the local car companies can understand the true meaning of the good intentions.
In June 21st, Wei Lai founder Li Bin joked in a forum that Tesla’s sales in Shanghai were better after the factory was built in the city. Because their common goal is to change the habits of users from gasoline vehicles to electric vehicles. From the survival contest of China ‘s new energy vehicles in the past six months, this statement is not affectation.
Double attack forces growth
If the epidemic is a black swan, Tesla is a long-standing grey rhinoceros. The double attack of the two “forces” the Chinese new energy vehicles still in their childhood to grow in the most difficult way. How to snatch food from shark has become the common goal of local new energy vehicle enterprises.
According to the latest sales data in May, the wholesale sales of domestic new energy passenger vehicles reached 70200, down 25.8% year on year. Meanwhile, the head effect and pattern differentiation of local new energy vehicles began to appear at the same time. On the one hand, the share of top 10 manufacturers reached 70%, up 21.6% year on year. On the other hand, with Tesla at the top of the list, BYD, the leader of independent new energy, and BAIC new energy continued to be depressed, with sales down year-on-year; and the joint venture accounted for four seats, namely, FAW Volkswagen, SAIC GM Wuling, SAIC Volkswagen and BMW Brilliance.
The epidemic and Tesla made in China have brought the survival screening of weak new car manufacturing enterprises ahead of time. In March this year, five of the six senior executives left their jobs and returned to traditional car companies, making layoffs and salary cuts a common choice. At the same time, with the outbreak of Bojun capital chain crisis as a representative, many original cooperation is difficult to continue.
However, the action of automobile enterprises did not stop. In May, the top ten sales volume of new energy vehicles, the main products of BAIC new energy, BYD, GAC new energy and other local traditional automobile enterprises began to move to a higher price segment; Weilai China received 7 billion capital from Hefei City, and Li Bin said that “RMB financing channels have been opened”; although it is puzzling, FAW sedan and another new manufacturer Car companies run Zero car hand in hand, still let the industry see more possibilities.
It has to be mentioned that the top-level design of the policy is also changing with the change of the new energy market pattern. From the introduction of new energy consumption subsidies in different regions, to the charging piles and power exchange modes entering into the scope of new infrastructure and subsidies, to the relaxation of the access terms of new energy vehicle enterprises, the opening of the threshold of OEM, and the opening of the local car purchasing indicators, the industry will be accelerated through integration and open cooperation The attitude of transformation is more obvious.
At the same time, Tesla’s sustainable growth enables the industry to objectively evaluate the development route of new energy. The senior management of a multinational car company in China made it clear that its goal is to do the same as Tesla, not rely on subsidies, and quickly occupy the market. The analysis of the capital market also emphasizes that the reason why Tesla’s valuation is so high is that its “software upgrade” mode has brought continuous consumption potential, which should also be considered by domestic new energy vehicle enterprises – on the basis of vehicle manufacturers, increase the attributes of technology service companies, and in turn drive the rapid increase of the market value of enterprises.