A minority recovery

0
245

Welcome to follow the wechat subscription number of “creating notes”: sinacchangshiji
Wen / David Wong
Source: Qizhu banquet guests
Tesla’s share price is only a step away from the new high, although only one of its factories has returned to full production in Shanghai so far, and analysts’ average forecast for sales volume in the second quarter is——
Decrease by 20%
On the other side of the ocean, Maotai’s share price has already reached a record high, but many players in snowball are still fighting for it——
“Why can those competitive semiconductor enterprises have a price earnings ratio of hundreds of times, while Maotai is only 40 times?”
Together with them, new highs were set by CITS, Aier Ophthalmology, tal, Shenzhen’s house prices, and the single month sales data of Beijing SKP mall.
It seems that these favored assets are various and distributed in various fields. However, if there is anything in common behind them, their owners, or those who want to own them, are not likely to be the real victims of the epidemic.
Some people say that after the epidemic, the capital market has chosen the best among the so-called core assets, and only the real gold can continue to rise. But I think it’s better to say that the epidemic has brought investors to the extreme of their feelings about poverty and love for wealth. In the past, the two concepts of “consumption upgrading” and “consumption sinking” can still fly together. At this moment, the “snobbish” capital The market firmly chose only one of them:
Those who serve that small group of people are the winners.
One
Recently, the landlords who want to sell their houses and rent their houses enjoy the double heaven of fire and ice.
The agency outside the community told me that the recent market for both first-hand and second-hand houses is extremely hot, and there are an endless stream of people coming to see them. They have no time to tell whether this is the start of a retaliatory house purchase or a new bull market.
However, the rental market is still a scene of “thousands of miles frozen”.
The rent for listing has been reduced again and again. There are still few people who can see the house. Before, we could find an excuse to say that it is because the community is closed, but now almost all of them have been unsealed, but it is still difficult to find tenants.
Objective data are also reflecting these two distinct feelings.
Take Shenzhen, a hot housing market. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, the transaction price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen has been rising all the way since February, but the rental price has been fluctuating and falling since it peaked in April 2019, and there is no sign of improvement in the last two months.
This is still in Shenzhen, where the labor flow is most obvious.
If you look at the situation of the whole country, the weft house index report released by the Financial Strategy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences at the end of May shows that the prices of the core cities, mainly the first tier and second tier cities, are rising rapidly, but at the same time, the housing rents have declined rapidly.
The comprehensive house prices of 24 core cities are now higher than the highest house prices in 2019, but the housing rents of these cities have declined for three consecutive months.
One up and one down, the picture below is very clear.
If you think about it carefully, the logic behind this is not difficult to understand.
Nowadays, most of the second-hand houses in the first tier and second tier cities can be bought by replacement demand, rather than by the people who rent them. Therefore, the people who buy and rent houses have become two distinct groups of people.
In the current environment, the houses on the replacement hands are not affected by the epidemic, and can still be sold smoothly. At the same time, the demand for changing houses has never been so urgent under the sense of water release crisis. However, renters are really feeling the crisis of salary reduction and layoff. It is not easy to stay in the current rental house safely. How to improve and move?
Two
In addition to the fact that people in the housing market know how to drink water, the recent stock market is a better example of class differentiation.
Although judging from the new cases every day in the world, this round of epidemic is far from the end, and even other countries except China have just begun to lift the blockade at most. However, the stock market can’t wait to go ahead, especially in the U.S. market, NASDAQ is only a step away from the record high.
Of course, Goldman Sachs has made statistics, except for the leading faamg, 90% of the other stocks are underperforming, and there are several exceptions, such as medical stocks, Tesla and lululemon.
In fact, Tesla has risen 150% since its march low, while lululemon is up 20% from its previous high.
They all have a feature that the main consumers are not those who need unemployment benefits. As a result, Tesla’s sales also bucked the trend during the outbreak, while lululemon closed its offline stores, but its online sales soared.
Similarly, if you look at the stock price of Ferrari, you will find that this year is almost a straight line, completely unaffected by the epidemic, the reason is self-evident.
In China, similar stories are on.
The first-line liquor brands such as Guizhou Maotai and Wuliangye have increased by 23% and 20% respectively compared with the peak before the epidemic, but the stock price of Shunxin agriculture, famous for Niulanshan Erguotou, is still 13% lower than that before the epidemic.
CITS, which owns duty-free stores on Hainan Island, is willing to pay for consumers’ vision of going to duty-free stores to clean up goods, although the business of airport duty-free stores has suffered a huge setback, up 50% in the past three months. This share price performance is much better than that of the department stores and shopping centers that are offline stores but open to mass consumers.
But even in the department store industry, similar differences also exist – also listed in Hong Kong stock market, the stock prices of Henglong real estate and Kerry construction, which operate high-end shopping malls, have risen 3% this year, while the stock prices of one of them have only dropped 10%. However, the stock prices of Joy City, which has a high popularity among young people, have dropped more than 30% this year.
In the post epidemic era, the more high-end brands are facing, the more popular the capital market is, and the more civilian the investors are voting with their feet.
Three

If we look into the reasons behind this, the first response is illogical, because whether in the United States or China, the focus of epidemic assistance is on the unemployed, small and micro enterprises, and the people most affected by the epidemic. But in the end, the real flow of “big water” is the stock market in the United States, the housing market in China, and even the whole capital market.
Why on earth?
I’ve read a lot of articles recently about how the global central bank’s massive water release will affect inflation and purchasing power, but none of them can be more comprehensible than the choices made by the capital market by voting with its feet.
In fact, for those working-class and low-income people who are most seriously affected by the epidemic, it seems that they are the most direct beneficiaries of the relief act or targeted aid, but the most that aid can solve is their temporary survival problems. For these people, the most important determinant of their long-term purchasing power is their own labor force, but this part of purchasing power is greatly damaged due to unemployment and wage reduction, and it is not recoverable from short-term assistance.
On the contrary, for the rich people who rely less on labor and more on capital to earn interest, the Fed’s plan to underpin corporate bonds and the global central bank’s efforts to lower real interest rates have just further expanded the long-term value of assets and credit. Therefore, their purchasing power has not been weakened by the epidemic, but because of the real interest rate drop brought by the central bank’s water release Enhanced.
As the world’s central banks rise and fall, so does the already divided class gap. This time, the global central bank has been further expanded in order to save the economy from all kinds of actions. In terms of consumption action, some people can buy houses quickly, while others can’t even rent houses; some people can still book Tesla and buy lululemon online, while others sink and sink consumption to the level of pinduoduo and local economy.
Therefore, in fact, the inflation brought by this round of water release is not necessarily reflected in soaring prices, but more likely in the declining purchasing power of ordinary people——
In the past, young people’s labor force was still valuable. After several years of struggle, they could take a loan to buy a “car plate” in the first and second tier cities. But now even if they empty six wallets, if there is no house to sell, it is even more difficult to buy a house in a big city.
In the past, ordinary people could own Maotai with tens of thousands of yuan with their meager savings, but now the threshold has been raised to 14 million yuan, which has exceeded 50% of the total assets of A-share accounts in the country.
For capital, this is the best time, but for labor, this is the worst time.
So don’t be confused about the “sense of disobedience” between the weak economic employment and the carnival capital market. What we really need to worry about is what will happen when all this is pushed to the extreme.
I hope it’s not what the wheel of history tells us.
(statement: This article only represents the author’s point of view, not Sina’s position.)