JPMorgan Chase: Demand for the iPhone 11 exceeds supply chain expectations

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[Summary] JPMorgan Chase said that the strong pre-purchase momentum of the iPhone 11 also “curbed the risk of the product cycle in 2019”, and that sales of this year’s models in the second half of 2019 are now expected to reach 64 million units.
Tencent Technologies News September 21, according to foreign media reports, JP Morgan claims that the extended delivery date of Apple’s latest flagship mobile phone, the iPhone 11, indicates that demand for new models of the iPhone is higher than expected in the supply chain. Value-based cell phone delivery extensions seem to indicate that consumers are not focusing on higher-end models as previously predicted.
The iPhone 11 is on sale at Apple Stores in Japan
JPMorgan Chase’s analysis of supply chains and orders in its “iPhone Availability Tracking Report” to investors shows that the delivery dates of the iPhone 11 Pro and the iPhone 11 Pro Max are about 21 days in the first and second weeks of orders from the top four U.S. carriers.
However, although the delivery date of the iPhone 11 is relatively lower than that of the iPhone 11 Pro series, it is reported that the first week of order delivery is 6 days and the second week of order delivery is 12 days. J.P. Morgan Chase wrote that doubling the delivery date “means that people are more interested in the’low-end’models that Apple and the supply chain initially anticipated.”
JPMorgan Chase also said that the strong pre-purchase momentum of the iPhone 11 “curbed the risk of the product cycle in 2019” and that sales of this year’s models are now expected to reach 64 million units in the second half of 2019. Compared with the 2018 iPhone XR, the launch time of the iPhone 11 is earlier, which also helps to curb sales risk, and if this momentum continues, it may bring more additional benefits.
“It’s no surprise that we expect the iPhone 11 to be the biggest driver of the growth in shipments over the next 12 months,” JPMorgan Chase said in its report. However, we expect shipments to be more mid-range, in sharp contrast to the strong sales of the high-end XS Max in 2018, compared with the iPhone 11 Pro Max.
Chart of “iPhone Availability Tracking Report” from JPMorgan Chase to Investors
J.P. Morgan Chase continues to maintain its forecast of 184 million Apple phones shipped in 2019, which it says will reach 195 million in 2020 and return to quarterly year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2020.
Although the improvement in demand for the iPhone has been welcomed by analysts, JPMorgan Chase has previously said that the new model offered investors “limited surprises” when it was launched, and pointed out that other areas of Apple would help boost revenue growth, such as its services business. (Tencent Technology Revision/Jinlu)