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Source: Two Sayings (ID: chongershuo)
This year, the venture capital circle has abated its fever, and the primary market has cooled very fast. In the first half of the year, 2787 funds were collected, which is only the same level as in 2014. Many founders have to see three-digit VC before they can get the Angel Wheel.
In the era of capital-oriented pigtail seeking temple gate, innovation focuses on the level of to-c, mostly on channel, mode and media optimization. It’s not important whether it’s just needed or not. Subsidies can always smash users. When the outlet of the second half turns to to to B service, it’s necessary to deeply embedded the real economy, whether 5G, AI or new medical treatment. New finance, new energy, new retail and new travel are all giant specialties.
Where are the opportunities for consumer Internet to go against? The answer lies in the 500-year history of human addiction.
Tobacco, alcohol and coffee, the three most widely recognized consumer addicts in the world, have suffered a variety of hardships. Tobacco, needless to say, has enforced a 13-year prohibition in the United States. Coffee has been heavily taxed in Britain and Sweden. In Ottoman Turkey in the 17th century, anyone who is keen on these three addictions will be subject to Sudan’s Murad IV. The world cut off its head.
It seems that all addictive consumption is a bad habit, but “addiction” is characterized by habitual dependence. The greater the social pressure, the faster the evolution and innovation of business models. As long as it keeps up with the trend, it will always be the outlet.
For example, tobacco is being controlled all over the world. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, which entered into force on February 27, 2005 by WHO, defines whether tobacco products belong to raw materials. As a result, it indirectly promotes the development of electronic tobacco. In 2005, there was only one electronic tobacco company in China. By 2015, there were more than 500 companies and more than 8000 electronic tobacco companies. Products. So by 2014, when the Convention was amended, restrictions on nicotine heating and aerosol delivery products had to be added.
Liquor restrictions are no less than tobacco. In 2006, the Regulations on Liquor Circulation Administration of the Ministry of Commerce prohibited the sale of alcohol to minors. China Minors Protection Law also has similar provisions. However, according to the data of China Food and Agriculture Group, the post-80s, post-90s and post-00s are increasingly fond of spirits, which is in line with the stagnation of global wine consumption and dramatic fluctuations in beer. The trend of spirits rising rapidly coincides with that of Jiang Xiaobai.
The most powerful is coffee, almost the whole scene of consumer evolution, Starbucks from canteen to takeout, Ruixing from takeout to canteen, independent coffee, brand chains, supermarket retail and homestead grinding beans have living space.
“Addiction” sexual consumption represents the oldest and most original human needs, such as our infatuation with red meat and desserts. Many people don’t understand why such old outlets as electronic cigarettes and artificial meat are salted fish, because electronic cigarettes have been born for half a century. As for artificial meat, they saw it when China launched the food movement of the 1960s.
Many human consumption habits have been proved to cause serious health damage by modern science, but we would rather choose alternatives than give up. This is the opportunity.
What are the business opportunities behind it? Last year, the total tax and profit of China Tobacco Corporation was 115.56 billion yuan, equivalent to four industrial and commercial banks, 10 China Mobile or 20 Huawei, six times the total profit of BAT.
Therefore, “addictive” consumption has become the outlet, not determined by social ethics but by business logic. The deterioration of the external environment has not eliminated demand, but accelerated the rise of alternatives.
The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control came into force in China in 2006. In the following 10 years, the tax and fee per cigarette in China increased from 21.9 yuan to 82.5 yuan, and the retail price increased from 50.8 yuan to 125.7 yuan, an average annual increase of 10.6%, much higher than the growth of consumer price index in the same period.
Tax, social and legal pressures produced by 71 of the 181 major countries that have acceded to the Convention only force smokers to passively change their consumption habits and smoking scenarios. According to Euromonitor, the global new tobacco market reached 27.74 billion US dollars last year, an increase of 60.6% over the same period last year, basically filling in the traditional cigarettes. Decreased share.
Artificial meat is also a product of this pressure and a collection of ideas and emotions.
First of all, after a large number of popular science, the harm of red meat, especially processed meat products, has been well known.
Documentary films like Food Company and The Dilemma of the Carnivore almost demonize the modern food industry.
The image of a broiler covered in test tubes is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Even the most determined meat lovers believe that animals can not live without quality and human beings can not eat healthily.
Animal husbandry produces 15% of the world’s greenhouse gases, and the total population will exceed 9.5 billion in the next 30 years. Nowadays, the environment and resources do not allow us to raise and slaughter more livestock to satisfy ourselves.
So the best solution is to find an artificial product that tastes close to meat and can overcome psychological, animal protection, environmental protection problems and sustain mass production. This demand is bigger and more urgent than electronic cigarettes.
Bill Gates ranked plough first in the “Top Ten Breakthrough Technologies” of the Massachusetts Science and Technology Review, because it brought farming civilization, and artificial meat came second.
In terms of business model, the biggest advantage of “addictive” consumption is that it can skip market cultivation and have the opportunity to kill the old hegemony at very low cost. That’s why Altria, the parent company of Marlboro, acquired 35% of Juul Labs, an electronic cigarette company, and the former owner of McDonald’s invested in Beyond Meat.
To make “addictive” consumption, you should first understand the key KPI of this business. There are two kinds of electronic cigarettes and artificial meat:
1. Safety and health;
2. Taste simulation;
But what comes first and what comes next, public relations rhetoric and actual play must be reversed.
People who are really worried about their health have quit smoking for a long time. They spend more money to buy e-cigarettes, besides curiosity and delicacy, to find a reason for self-comfort and self-deception. Therefore, the core KPI of e-cigarettes is absolutely taste rather than safety.
The so-called JULL plant glycerol, propylene glycol, nicotine salt crystal and essence mixed, or IQOS heating does not burn tobacco, in the absence of mandatory law standards, who is most like the traditional cigarette, who will win.
Similarly, “addictive” sex consumption, why are electronic cigarettes rising in the business circles of China and the United States, while the situation, heat and trend of artificial meat are quite different?
Electronic cigarettes naturally consume both markets.
There are both the traditional smokers and the native VAPE. The market education of the former has been completed and can be started as long as a dominant brand is inserted. The latter’s customers are growing rapidly. The business is almost zero-cost to transform demand from the old hegemony while the greedy whale swallows up the incremental market.
From a profit point of view, electronic cigarette is a nebulizer with batteries. It has clear technology, simple structure and costs only one tenth of the price. Cigarette bombs provide continuous consumption in the later stage. The development of taste is almost infinite. In addition, Shenzhen industrial chain has 90% of the global capacity. As long as you have users, you can make money lying down.
This business still has its ups and downs.
At present, there is no national standard for electronic cigarettes. The Health Care Commission has just opened a ventilation meeting to explain the harm of electronic cigarettes. Legislation is still under study, that is, to increase taxes, the impact is bidirectional.
If the actual consumption cost of e-cigarettes is higher than that of the tobacco industry, it will encourage users to return to traditional cigarettes. On the contrary, the growth rate of e-cigarettes can still outpace that of traditional cigarettes only under the general consumption scenario.
And most importantly, because of the high price of customers and the support of follow-up consumption, the business model of e-cigarettes can be driven by private flow or powdered consumption, which can make the initial volume of the company smaller and also create high profits. Juul Labs has only 1500 employees. Last year, the per capita dividend was $1.3 million. Lao Luo is naked. As the product endorsers of former colleagues Zhu Xiaomu and Peng Jinzhou, we probably see this too.
If you develop a product that does not use nicotine, tastes pleasant and can be taken orally by institutions such as the FDA, it really does not rule out the possibility of monopolizing the market or establishing certain standards. This is an additional imagination space.
Both China and the United States have a tradition of eating large pieces of meat. The key is that they have very different attitudes towards meat.
Although Cao Ming of the State of Lu shouted there thousands of years ago that “meat eaters are contemptuous and can’t make far-sighted plans”, Confucius taught his disciples to accept “restraint and repair”. He even compared the most elegant “Shao Le” with “March does not know the taste of meat”.
China’s meat consumption, especially pork, has been growing at a high speed. It now accounts for about 30% of the world’s total. Many people get their sense of abundance through protein intake.
Meat consumption in the United States has declined since 1976, with a decline of nearly 20% over the past 10 years. Beef cattle stocks have also continued to decline. According to a survey by Johns Hopkins University, 41% of Americans have reduced their intake of red meat, replaced by fruits and vegetables, and 9% have given up red meat altogether.
More than a hundred years ago, the dirty slaughterhouse depicted by American writer Sinclair in the novel Slaughterhouse shocked many people, and documentaries like Big Me also kept consumers away from meat.
This is the fundamental difference of consumption environment between the two countries. Technology is another factor.
At present, there are 17 conceptual stocks of artificial meat in China, but they are not eager to fry the concept. At least at this stage, their main business is still the cultivation and deep processing of legumes. Morphologically speaking, these products are closer to the “vegetarian meat” model of traditional Chinese catering. They are not closely related to the artificial meat cultivated by American laboratories, so they are rashly affixed to the artificial meat. Meat labels not only cause stock price fluctuations, but also cause unnecessary trouble in the capital market.
In fact, artificial meat companies such as Impossible Foods or Beyond Meat, which are now entering the consumer market in the United States, also use genetically modified heme and pea protein to produce a taste similar to meat.
The most important thing is the difference in the way people eat meat between the two countries.
Because the finished product of artificial meat is minced meat, it is difficult to make steak and pork steak, but the pressed meat pie in the hamburger is not hampered, and in the typical Chinese cooking scene, the ingredients tend to retain the original state, so artificial meat can not exist in the form of sweet and sour ribs and braised elbows.
In the past, Internet innovation was mainly driven by water squeezing and low-price temptation. On the contrary, electronic cigarettes and artificial meat did not threaten the middle link of the industrial chain, but directly subverted the underlying resources. Tyson Foods, the largest meat processor in the United States, has taken a stake in Memphis Meats, a company that produces beef and chicken from animal cells. The real objection to artificial meat is the American Association of Farmers and Herdsmen, which is pushing for a law prohibiting the use of the word “meat” in labels of artificial meat. Similarly, most of the people who oppose e e-cigarettes in China are not tobacco companies but tobacco farmers.
“Addiction” innovation has become the outlet because it supports the human nature stronger than just needed, and can not be affected by macro-economy, igniting a “fire in winter”. But the fact that electronic cigarettes and artificial meat have the same origin and different lives also shows that it is difficult to live in the outlet of China without making quick money.
(Statement: This article only represents the author’s point of view, not Sina’s position.)